Since everyone is posting their recruiting breakdowns today, I thought I would revisit something I posted about a couple week's back. I reassessed all of our recruiting classes from 2004 to now by applying the current Rivals formula introduced in 2012 to all of the classes.
Star rankings and average star rankings are nice, but I've always been more interested in an Average Rivals Ranking, since a 3.3 star average can be deceptive if you have a ton of 5.7 guys in a class, which a star average will hide.
But with extra points being applied to Rivals 100 and 250 recruits, points can also get snuck in that way, so I devised an Average Points Per Recruit to get an even greater grasp of the sort of players we are recruiting. I also included a breakdown of how many players of each major Rivals ranking (6.1-5.7) we got in each class as a way to better gauge the class' ceiling.
Now that our class is finished for 2017, I thought I would post an updated chart with final numbers:
Some long-winded thoughts:
What I like is Riley is showing a gradual uptick in his 3 recruiting classes (the tan ones are classes involved in coaching changes) in both Pts / Recruit and Average RR. What I also like is seeing the increase in 6.0 and 5.9 recruits under Riley.
In fact, Riley's numbers in the 5.9 / 6.0 range line up closely to the output we expected under Callahan. 2017 is the first class to actually include both a 5.9 and 6.0 player since 2007.
If you want to attribute Raridon to Pelini, and assuming our 2018 class, as it stands, stays together, Riley has already gotten 5 5.9 players in three recruiting classes (counting 2015) compared to Pelini's 8 in 8 (counting both 2008 and Raridon from 2015). And Riley could boost that number with the 2018 class. If you count Jurgens, he's already looking at six 5.9s in his four classes, with the fourth class just starting.
Based on these numbers and knowing a bit of the history of how players in a lot of these classes faired, I feel a recruiting class that emulates a "good" recruiting class that we should hope to reach almost every year is the 2007 class. Its points in the 1900 area and an average Pts / Recruit of 95ish. To go just beyond the data as well, Callahan identified a lot of good talent that year, including some underrated players in Amukamara, Helu, Jones and Haag. Niles Paul helped a ton down the line and several highly rated players served as starters, even if some players like Burkes and Lawrence had to hang it up for health reasons down the road.
We were pretty darn close to hitting this mark with this class. As I look at the guys, they all seem like players that validated their offers and all have the potential to be contributors.. No last minute Edna Carr reaches that I suspect will give us character issues, and if you want to play a numbers game, getting one more player in the 5.7 range this year would have pushed Walker out of the Top 20, with 21 players on the rosters, and put our Pts / Recruit average at 95.4, right where we would want it to be. To be only one Wazzu flake, TCU commit, or Oregon commit hail mary surprise away from hitting that shows how close we were.
So is this class good? I think it was just a smidge away from being where I would have wanted its floor to be, but I like where things are trending. Like many, I would have liked a higher rated OT that could look into playing this year or next year.
With the way Riley has handled getting coaches like Diaco and Donté Williams on staff, I feel like our recruiting numbers will only improve from here. Next year, even if we only get to 19 players, I think we'll see the talent come in to definitely get us above that 95 point threshold even if the smaller numbers makes us miss the 1900 target.
And unlike Pelini, I feel like good talent brought here will actually see more time on the field than in his doghouse. But to look at that, we'll have to wait and look at a ButchCassidy breakdown of the average Rivals ratings of who was playing each position. The last time he posted one of those that compared Pelini's average roster ranking to Riley's 2015 was pretty eye opening.
Star rankings and average star rankings are nice, but I've always been more interested in an Average Rivals Ranking, since a 3.3 star average can be deceptive if you have a ton of 5.7 guys in a class, which a star average will hide.
But with extra points being applied to Rivals 100 and 250 recruits, points can also get snuck in that way, so I devised an Average Points Per Recruit to get an even greater grasp of the sort of players we are recruiting. I also included a breakdown of how many players of each major Rivals ranking (6.1-5.7) we got in each class as a way to better gauge the class' ceiling.
Now that our class is finished for 2017, I thought I would post an updated chart with final numbers:
Some long-winded thoughts:
What I like is Riley is showing a gradual uptick in his 3 recruiting classes (the tan ones are classes involved in coaching changes) in both Pts / Recruit and Average RR. What I also like is seeing the increase in 6.0 and 5.9 recruits under Riley.
In fact, Riley's numbers in the 5.9 / 6.0 range line up closely to the output we expected under Callahan. 2017 is the first class to actually include both a 5.9 and 6.0 player since 2007.
If you want to attribute Raridon to Pelini, and assuming our 2018 class, as it stands, stays together, Riley has already gotten 5 5.9 players in three recruiting classes (counting 2015) compared to Pelini's 8 in 8 (counting both 2008 and Raridon from 2015). And Riley could boost that number with the 2018 class. If you count Jurgens, he's already looking at six 5.9s in his four classes, with the fourth class just starting.
Based on these numbers and knowing a bit of the history of how players in a lot of these classes faired, I feel a recruiting class that emulates a "good" recruiting class that we should hope to reach almost every year is the 2007 class. Its points in the 1900 area and an average Pts / Recruit of 95ish. To go just beyond the data as well, Callahan identified a lot of good talent that year, including some underrated players in Amukamara, Helu, Jones and Haag. Niles Paul helped a ton down the line and several highly rated players served as starters, even if some players like Burkes and Lawrence had to hang it up for health reasons down the road.
We were pretty darn close to hitting this mark with this class. As I look at the guys, they all seem like players that validated their offers and all have the potential to be contributors.. No last minute Edna Carr reaches that I suspect will give us character issues, and if you want to play a numbers game, getting one more player in the 5.7 range this year would have pushed Walker out of the Top 20, with 21 players on the rosters, and put our Pts / Recruit average at 95.4, right where we would want it to be. To be only one Wazzu flake, TCU commit, or Oregon commit hail mary surprise away from hitting that shows how close we were.
So is this class good? I think it was just a smidge away from being where I would have wanted its floor to be, but I like where things are trending. Like many, I would have liked a higher rated OT that could look into playing this year or next year.
With the way Riley has handled getting coaches like Diaco and Donté Williams on staff, I feel like our recruiting numbers will only improve from here. Next year, even if we only get to 19 players, I think we'll see the talent come in to definitely get us above that 95 point threshold even if the smaller numbers makes us miss the 1900 target.
And unlike Pelini, I feel like good talent brought here will actually see more time on the field than in his doghouse. But to look at that, we'll have to wait and look at a ButchCassidy breakdown of the average Rivals ratings of who was playing each position. The last time he posted one of those that compared Pelini's average roster ranking to Riley's 2015 was pretty eye opening.
