While I was relaxing in the redwoods did a little analysis of Nebraska's third down offense last season. Learned a few things...
1. 13 is Nebraska's Unlucky Number. When Nebraska faced less than 13 3rd down situations in a game, regardless of the conversion rate, the Huskers won -- every time. When Nebraska faced 13+ 3rd down situations in a game, they lost -- every time.
2. 3rd and Short. In our wins we converted 3rd and short (3 or less) 15 of 19 times for the season (79%), 7 of 9 in B1G play (78%); In our losses, we went 16 for 30 for the season (53%), 14 of 24 in conference (58%).
3. 3rd and 11+ yards. This one defies logic. On 3rd down, we were actually significantly more successful converting very long (11+ yards) than med to long (4-10 yards). For the season we were 15 of 33 (45%) converting 3rd and 11+ yards, 7 of 18 in B1G play (39%). However, we were 33 of 94 (35%) for the season, 24 of 66 (36%) in conference play.
4. Glass (barely) over half full. Overall on 3rd down, in our wins we were a combined 33 of 65 (51%) for the season, 18 of 35 (51%) in B1G play. However, in our loses Nebraska converted only 46 of 111 3rd down opportunities (41%) for the season, 34 for 82 (41%) in conference play.
What does this all mean for 2016 and changes we need to make, objectives we need to strive for? I don't know, I just had time on my hands on vacation.
1. 13 is Nebraska's Unlucky Number. When Nebraska faced less than 13 3rd down situations in a game, regardless of the conversion rate, the Huskers won -- every time. When Nebraska faced 13+ 3rd down situations in a game, they lost -- every time.
2. 3rd and Short. In our wins we converted 3rd and short (3 or less) 15 of 19 times for the season (79%), 7 of 9 in B1G play (78%); In our losses, we went 16 for 30 for the season (53%), 14 of 24 in conference (58%).
3. 3rd and 11+ yards. This one defies logic. On 3rd down, we were actually significantly more successful converting very long (11+ yards) than med to long (4-10 yards). For the season we were 15 of 33 (45%) converting 3rd and 11+ yards, 7 of 18 in B1G play (39%). However, we were 33 of 94 (35%) for the season, 24 of 66 (36%) in conference play.
4. Glass (barely) over half full. Overall on 3rd down, in our wins we were a combined 33 of 65 (51%) for the season, 18 of 35 (51%) in B1G play. However, in our loses Nebraska converted only 46 of 111 3rd down opportunities (41%) for the season, 34 for 82 (41%) in conference play.
What does this all mean for 2016 and changes we need to make, objectives we need to strive for? I don't know, I just had time on my hands on vacation.
