Link: https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/nebraska-cornhuskers-scott-frost-coach-mike-riley-chip-kelly
Expert: Nebraska needs at least $4.5 million to land Scott Frost, or any other dream coach
by Sean Keeler, Land of 10
Here's the thing: It's just Looney Tunes enough to fit.
Scott Frost can insist a reported offer of seven years and $35 million is a load of hooey until he's blue in the face. But given the market, that sounds awfully, awfully close to what Nebraska would have to wave in front of a football coach -- any new football coach -- in order to close the deal.
"For Nebraska, I think you're going to be looking at about $4.5 million [per year], quite honestly," Cary Caro, an assistant professor of business at Xavier University in Louisiana, told Land of 10. "Because I think that's what the SEC [jobs] are going to bring. I think so. I really do."
You know those giant stacks of Big Ten television money chips?
This is when you push them to the middle of the table.
If athletic director Bill Moos is in, kids, he better be all in.
Think 4 a.m. Black Friday sales are gonzo? Wait til you see how the coaching market churns over the weeks to come.
We're about to hit one of the most fascinating free-agent windows in recent college football history, as a slew of Power 5 jobs -- destination gigs, landing spots with legacies, facilities, fan bases and deep pockets -- already are, or are expected to, swing wide open.
Florida cut bait with Jim McElwain before the season was 10 weeks old. Tennessee did the same with Butch Jones after Week 11. The SEC could lose close to a third of its coaches in short order, depending on how badly the boosters at Arkansas and Texas A&M want to scratch the itch and try a different direction. UCLA just canned Jim Mora Jr., and diminishing returns could spell doom for Todd Graham at Arizona State.
And, delicious irony of delicious ironies, Mike Riley's old gig at Oregon State has been vacant for more than a month. Maybe a third time's the charm.
"Just because of the market and the jobs that are going to be open -- Texas A&M could be open, Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee and A&M all in one conference -- that are looking to replace people," continued Caro, who specializes in sports business and helmed several research projects on the dollars and cents of FBS programs.
"And let's not forget about our boy Jimbo Fisher using the LSU opening last year to get paid at Florida State. I think, quite honestly, looking at [the market] ...you're looking at $4 [million] to $4.5 million to make it work. Unless you can pull the 'You're one of ours' card."
Just don't count on that last one landing, whether it's Frost, Chip Kelly, Les Miles, Mike Leach -- or none of the above.
According to the most recent USA Today database, the Huskers had been on the hook for just $2.9 million per year for coach Riley -- 11th out of 14 Big Ten salaries reported and ahead of only Maryland's DJ Durkin, Rutgers' Chris Ash and Indiana's Tom Allen.
So, yeah, basically, you get what you pay for.
And if the Big Red can't beat the Iowa Hawkeyes -- who paid Kirk Ferentz $4.55 million this year -- they're probably going to have to outspend them.
Nebraska didn't join the Big Ten for the privilege of getting tire-ironed in the tibia by Urban Meyer on national television. The Huskers joined so they could write obscenely large checks to pave over old cracks and old mistakes.
Someone is about to make Frost, the unbeaten coach at Central Florida and quarterback of Nebraska's 1997 national co-champions, obscenely rich. If you're Moos and you're hell-bent on that someone being Frost's alma mater, it's fairly cut-and-died:
Pony up.
Because even if it isn't Frost, even if that $4.5 million starting point doesn't land the favorite son, it's likely the Huskers are going to have to overpay to lasso an ame.
A prospective new coach is going to see a glorious history, a passionate following and expectations to match.
He also knows he's dealing with a small local recruiting pool, Wisconsin rolling like Bama Lite and a generation of national cache lost.
"When Nebraska left for the Big Ten, it went through somewhat of an identity crisis," Caro noted. "We know what Wisconsin football is, what Michigan State football is. And I know this has been talked about ad nauseam, [but] Nebraska's gone through so many offensive styles. I grew up with the Blackshirts. I grew up with the identity of what Nebraska was. They need to get back to that.
"One of the things that the athletic director has to do is, they need to have that come-to-Jesus moment: What is Nebraska football going to look like in the future? If they bring back some of that identity with someone like Frost, if that's the way to go, I'm for it.
"Nebraska is hogs up front, hogs on the offensive line and 3 yards and a cloud of dust, and 'Are you going to stop us?' A lot of people fit that mold, but there's also something to [getting someone] who fits the culture, knows that culture."
Even familiar faces won't come cheap. Frost reportedly makes $2 million at Central Florida, the second-highest known salary in the American Athletic Conference behind Chad Morris' $2.1 million at SMU. The Gators paid McElwain $4.46 million this past season; Tennessee paid Butch Jones $4.1 million; Bret Bielema commanded $4.2 million from Arkansas.
Even middleweights such as Minnesota -- which poached P.J. Fleck, last fall's version of Frost, with a $3.5 million salary -- and Purdue -- which paid Jeff Brohm $3.3 million -- have raised the Big Ten's floor.
Meyer scores $6.4 million at Ohio State and Jim Harbaugh makes $7 million at Michigan, if you're shooting for the ceiling.
And you should.
"Nebraska can afford it -- there are no ifs and buts about it," Caro said. "You're still on the hook for Bo Pelini [through February 2019] and you'd still be on the hook for Mike Riley as well....at the end of the year, that doesn't put a lot of dent in the revenue stream.
"I think Arizona State will open, where you can have success at. Depends what happens with Gus Malzahn at Auburn here at the end. Matt Campbell [at Iowa State] needs a raise, too. It's really setting up to be the perfect storm, a sort of realignment when it comes to coaches. And it's going to be interesting to watch it play out."
Moos can't afford to wait around and let some other schmoe grab a box seat. Money can't buy happiness. Bit it can buy you hope, a gift Huskers fans haven't opened in what feels like ages.
Expert: Nebraska needs at least $4.5 million to land Scott Frost, or any other dream coach
by Sean Keeler, Land of 10
Here's the thing: It's just Looney Tunes enough to fit.
Scott Frost can insist a reported offer of seven years and $35 million is a load of hooey until he's blue in the face. But given the market, that sounds awfully, awfully close to what Nebraska would have to wave in front of a football coach -- any new football coach -- in order to close the deal.
"For Nebraska, I think you're going to be looking at about $4.5 million [per year], quite honestly," Cary Caro, an assistant professor of business at Xavier University in Louisiana, told Land of 10. "Because I think that's what the SEC [jobs] are going to bring. I think so. I really do."
You know those giant stacks of Big Ten television money chips?
This is when you push them to the middle of the table.
If athletic director Bill Moos is in, kids, he better be all in.
Think 4 a.m. Black Friday sales are gonzo? Wait til you see how the coaching market churns over the weeks to come.
We're about to hit one of the most fascinating free-agent windows in recent college football history, as a slew of Power 5 jobs -- destination gigs, landing spots with legacies, facilities, fan bases and deep pockets -- already are, or are expected to, swing wide open.
Florida cut bait with Jim McElwain before the season was 10 weeks old. Tennessee did the same with Butch Jones after Week 11. The SEC could lose close to a third of its coaches in short order, depending on how badly the boosters at Arkansas and Texas A&M want to scratch the itch and try a different direction. UCLA just canned Jim Mora Jr., and diminishing returns could spell doom for Todd Graham at Arizona State.
And, delicious irony of delicious ironies, Mike Riley's old gig at Oregon State has been vacant for more than a month. Maybe a third time's the charm.
"Just because of the market and the jobs that are going to be open -- Texas A&M could be open, Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee and A&M all in one conference -- that are looking to replace people," continued Caro, who specializes in sports business and helmed several research projects on the dollars and cents of FBS programs.
"And let's not forget about our boy Jimbo Fisher using the LSU opening last year to get paid at Florida State. I think, quite honestly, looking at [the market] ...you're looking at $4 [million] to $4.5 million to make it work. Unless you can pull the 'You're one of ours' card."
Just don't count on that last one landing, whether it's Frost, Chip Kelly, Les Miles, Mike Leach -- or none of the above.
According to the most recent USA Today database, the Huskers had been on the hook for just $2.9 million per year for coach Riley -- 11th out of 14 Big Ten salaries reported and ahead of only Maryland's DJ Durkin, Rutgers' Chris Ash and Indiana's Tom Allen.
So, yeah, basically, you get what you pay for.
And if the Big Red can't beat the Iowa Hawkeyes -- who paid Kirk Ferentz $4.55 million this year -- they're probably going to have to outspend them.
Nebraska didn't join the Big Ten for the privilege of getting tire-ironed in the tibia by Urban Meyer on national television. The Huskers joined so they could write obscenely large checks to pave over old cracks and old mistakes.
Someone is about to make Frost, the unbeaten coach at Central Florida and quarterback of Nebraska's 1997 national co-champions, obscenely rich. If you're Moos and you're hell-bent on that someone being Frost's alma mater, it's fairly cut-and-died:
Pony up.
Because even if it isn't Frost, even if that $4.5 million starting point doesn't land the favorite son, it's likely the Huskers are going to have to overpay to lasso an ame.
A prospective new coach is going to see a glorious history, a passionate following and expectations to match.
He also knows he's dealing with a small local recruiting pool, Wisconsin rolling like Bama Lite and a generation of national cache lost.
"When Nebraska left for the Big Ten, it went through somewhat of an identity crisis," Caro noted. "We know what Wisconsin football is, what Michigan State football is. And I know this has been talked about ad nauseam, [but] Nebraska's gone through so many offensive styles. I grew up with the Blackshirts. I grew up with the identity of what Nebraska was. They need to get back to that.
"One of the things that the athletic director has to do is, they need to have that come-to-Jesus moment: What is Nebraska football going to look like in the future? If they bring back some of that identity with someone like Frost, if that's the way to go, I'm for it.
"Nebraska is hogs up front, hogs on the offensive line and 3 yards and a cloud of dust, and 'Are you going to stop us?' A lot of people fit that mold, but there's also something to [getting someone] who fits the culture, knows that culture."
Even familiar faces won't come cheap. Frost reportedly makes $2 million at Central Florida, the second-highest known salary in the American Athletic Conference behind Chad Morris' $2.1 million at SMU. The Gators paid McElwain $4.46 million this past season; Tennessee paid Butch Jones $4.1 million; Bret Bielema commanded $4.2 million from Arkansas.
Even middleweights such as Minnesota -- which poached P.J. Fleck, last fall's version of Frost, with a $3.5 million salary -- and Purdue -- which paid Jeff Brohm $3.3 million -- have raised the Big Ten's floor.
Meyer scores $6.4 million at Ohio State and Jim Harbaugh makes $7 million at Michigan, if you're shooting for the ceiling.
And you should.
"Nebraska can afford it -- there are no ifs and buts about it," Caro said. "You're still on the hook for Bo Pelini [through February 2019] and you'd still be on the hook for Mike Riley as well....at the end of the year, that doesn't put a lot of dent in the revenue stream.
"I think Arizona State will open, where you can have success at. Depends what happens with Gus Malzahn at Auburn here at the end. Matt Campbell [at Iowa State] needs a raise, too. It's really setting up to be the perfect storm, a sort of realignment when it comes to coaches. And it's going to be interesting to watch it play out."
Moos can't afford to wait around and let some other schmoe grab a box seat. Money can't buy happiness. Bit it can buy you hope, a gift Huskers fans haven't opened in what feels like ages.
