MMadness & Bracket Theory & Final Four

[maplesyrup95]

This year's tournament should be one of the most interesting ones in years. Last year there were 3 juggernaut teams (Kentucky, Duke, and Wisconsin). However, this year, any team in the top 60 seems like they can beat anybody else.

In regards to having a good bracket: I will say that when picking your bracket in a few weeks to not trust the Big XII. The past few years they have not done well in the tournament. Also as a general rule of thumb, a conference champion in a top 5 conference seems to have the best shot at the Final Four due to the momentous runs conference tournaments can create for teams. The ACC and B1G often take huge advantage of this. I would not doubt a surprise 5-10 seed team having a stellar run this year. But here's my safe final four as of right now (knowing that they could literally change tonight):

Kentucky (4 seed)-- If they get a 4 seed and have momentum, look out. 4 seeds historically do better than 3 seeds, just an FYI. All opinions of mine aside of him, John Calipari knows how to win. If Kentucky wins the SEC, look out (again).

Virginia (2 seed)-- Consistent team with big wins in the ACC. North Carolina is solid and could make the final four, but I don't think they have a player that can hit a clutch shot at the end of games. Duke is a bad three-point-shooting game away from getting beat in the first round. Cavaliers' point guard is a stud and a sharpshooter and a great leader, plus they have great bigs.

Kansas (1 seed) -- Generally, I don't trust the Big 12 in the NCAA tournament anymore. They have screwed me over the past few years. However, Kansas is the exception because of the Bill Self Factor. Big XII brother Oklahoma probably won't make past the Elite 8. Buddy Hield will be fun to follow this year, I think if he shows up he will have a Stephen Curry-type-tournament, but I think the Sooners will probably lose second round or Sweet 16. Another team that lives and dies by the 3.

Michigan State (4 seed) -- B1G brethren Maryland and Iowa have good consistent groups and all 3 can make the Elite 8, but the Hawks and Terps don't have Tom Izzo.

Who do you have right now?

 

[jeans15]

UNC - giving them one more chance, Kansas, OU, Maryland It's really to wide open to pick. I believe a #1 seed has a chance to lose in the first round this year.

But, just like college football, one of the blue bloods will win it. UNC, Kentucky, Connecticut, Michigan St, Kansas, Duke, UCLA, Indiana

The only team that has another gear they can go to is UNC. (They showed a glimpse against Pitt) They haven't played there best game all year long. If Paige, Jackson and Berry all start to play well. Then I picked them to win it. But I have no idea what the hell has happened to Marcus Paige.

 

[maplesyrup95]

UNC - giving them one more chance, Kansas, OU, Maryland It's really to wide open to pick. I believe a #1 seed has a chance to lose in the first round this year.

But, just like college football, one of the blue bloods will win it. UNC, Kentucky, Connecticut, Michigan St, Kansas, Duke, UCLA, Indiana

The only team that has another gear they can go to is UNC. (They showed a glimpse against Pitt) They haven't played there best game all year long. If Paige, Jackson and Berry all start to play well. Then I picked them to win it. But I have no idea what the hell has happened to Marcus Paige.

Could not agree with you more about the blue bloods. It happens every year. Can definitely see UNC making the Final Four if those 3 guys all play well and Paige develops some sort of ice in his veins in clutch moments. Don't forget about Arizona or Villanova either! Any one of those 10 teams will probably win it, despite how many upsets there have been this year.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

T-minus about 13 days until it's time to start caring about college basketball, for about 3 weeks.

 

[spartanhusker]

I'm stunned at the love people give Carolina...they are a typical Roy Williams soft team...if they get an easy draw, they could make SOME noise, but doubtful....

Not going to play my other choice just yet....Cool

 

[jeans15]

It's based on potential. But Roy's teams have handled some so called tough teams in the past.

Then again those teams then really need Roy to win a championship.

But this UNC team is not mentally strong. I totally agree.

 

[HuskerBlueDevil]

I agree that Paige is a head-scratcher for UNC. IF the Paige that played as a sophomore suddenly reappeared, he actually has the ability to put a team on his back and take it to a National Championship, especially with Johnson playing at an extremely high level right now. But there are no signs that Paige is about to reappear.

 

[jeans15]

There has to be a woman involved with Paige ..lol It makes no sense.

Great win by Duke with only 5 players. UNC has more McDonald All Americans than that on their roster and loss. Maybe the worst coaching performance I have ever seen.

 

[jay-cheese]

Seen that act at the end of games a few times with Ol Roy. He can be one stubborn coach...love his press conference afterwards where he invoked Dean Smith as the one who taught him not to call a timeout when you need to score at the end of the game (said that Dean always felt the defense wasn't set like they would be after a timeout and that was an advantage to the offense...said he'd do the same thing tomorrow again if he had too..). Losing a close game with three timeouts still in the holster easily leads to second guessing...invoking Dean's name as part of decision makes any media criticism a no winner.

I agree with the OP that this year's tourney will be a dandy in a sense of upsets and any that there are at least 20 teams that if they play hot can at least get to the final four. It hasn't made a huge difference, but shorten shot clock actually takes away a little bit of the underdog's chances (they tend to run the shot clock down on offense to shorten the game as much as possible). Remember the best underdog recipe for a win: run the clock down on each possession, defend/scrap like heck on d (make the officials make calls), get the crowd on your side (usually easy as everyone likes the underdog), hit 3 point shots, and hit your free throws...do that and you will likely have a shot to score a major upset. Conceptually, more possessions usually favor the more talented team (applies to football too!)

Teams favored to get to the final four:
- Kansas (barring major hickup in their remaining 5 games...will likely get the midwest #1 seed as a reward for winning the Big 12..that means playing in Des Moines and Chicago)
-NOVA...best all round team yet for Jay Wright. Their talent and depth should help them avoid any early upsets..
-UNC: Talented but hasn't shown that killer instinct in high level games
-OU: Probabaly the most talented team in the Big 12 offensively...very motivated and well rounded

Semi darkhorses (teams with talent that haven't played up to it):
-Iowa St
-Arizona
-Indiana
-Wich St

Could get hot and be elite:
-Iowa
-Duke
-Mich St
-Kentucky

 

[spartanhusker]

I kind of disagree on WSU...at least EARLY WSU...having a hobbled, then injured VanVleet, and no Shamet, and no Grady, and no Frankamp for a while makes this group tarnished, but not much now...

 

[jay-cheese]

You likely know much more on Wich St than I. I like them as a darkhorse...who do you think might make some noise this year?

 

[jeans15]

You likely know much more on Wich St than I. I like them as a darkhorse...who do you think might make some noise this year?

Texas... Northern Iowa

 

[Charlie Marlow]

Jeez, UNC was just so stupid that game. I know Roy loves to horde his timeouts, but maybe he could have spared one to tell his team to pound it inside and go after Plumlee at some point in the final 12 minutes. Had they even played poorly, they probably still win the game, but that was abysmal. I don't question Roy for not calling a timeout to set up a final play though. I have many years experience of watching his teams and his end-of-game play is always the same: PG run the clock to 4 seconds, then try to create some isolation BS only to throw up a pure garbage shot that succeeds about 20% of the time. Pretty much the same thing that happens without a timeout.

I had a thread about Final Four a couple weeks ago and I had said it's up for grabs. OU and UNC were my favorites then. But they have since fallen on hard times. UNC is brain-dead and OU is flat worn down. KU found some life now that Lucas is giving decent minutes at the 5 spot. Izzo always seems to get his team to play their best at the end of the year, so we will see. I keep getting burned thinking Villanova is for real so I'm a bit gun shy to pick them. I could see UK getting it together in time for the tournament just like two years ago. Ullis is really good.

Frankamp is too short and too slow. His calling card is supposed to be his shooting, but he hasn't exactly been lighting it up either. Wichita St just doesn't seem to have that magic anymore, but then again they do have a couple of good veteran guards, but not a lot of help otherwise.

 

[spartanhusker]

Frankamp will be fine... I think he just needs to play more, which he can't now... And they are kind of a nicked up team

 

[jay-cheese]

Final regular season conference RPI's:

Conference RPI ratings 2016:

1. Big 12 — .5914
2. Pac-12 — .5814
3. ACC — .5742
4. Big East — .5634
5. Big Ten — .5542
6. SEC — .5522
7. Atlantic 10 — .5381
8. AAC — .5366
9. Colonial — .5238
10. Mid-American — .5194

 

[jeans15]

The top half of the ACC was terrific. Bottom half not so much.