Agreed - this is more a comment on the final years of Bo and his poor recruiting. The one draftee thus far was brought in by Riley.
Is our NFL level talent really that much worse than
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The thinking by some on here that the number of NFL draft picks is determined only by high school star rankings and has nothing to do with the development players have gained in college is completely asinine.
recruits absolutely need to be developed .. but stars matter .. given the same coaching and development a 4 or 5 star kid has a higher likelihood of being a 1st round draft pick than a 3*
of the 1st round picks in 2017 and 2018 - 36 of the 64 1st round picks were 4 or 5* recruits (greater than half)
if you look at rivals # of stars handed out in 2018 - there were only 33- 5*s, and 399 -4*s. There were 1,409 - 3*s and 1,842 - 2*s.
So despite making up only 12% of the total stars handed out by Rivals, 4 and 5* recruits make up approximately 50% of the 1st round draft choices.
I am not at all arguing with the premise that high school kids need to be developed - but it is clear you are better off developing 4 and 5* kids than 2 and 3* kids.
In addition, the following is a summation of the research linked:
http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/174883892/predicting-best-nfl-draft-prospects-talent
In summation, five years of NFL draft data show that a higher recruiting star rating is associated with:
- A better chance of getting drafted in the first place
- Getting picked earlier in the draft
- A greater chance that a drafted player will appear in an NFL game
- Greater production once a player reaches the NFL.
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Lack of draft picks is due to a combination in this case of poor recruiting and poor development. You cannot just lay the blame one way. Looking at the results shows us why neither of those two staffs are still in Lincoln!
Ok but of all the 4 and 5 star players, which are the ones that end up being drafted? It's the ones that developed in college. And it's the same with the 3 stars that end up being drafted. Coaching is a large factor in why we haven't been getting many draft picks the last few years.
I agree that it's a factor but I don't believe it's a larger factor than talent.
I know that's not exactly what you said, but I'm not sure if you were implying that or not.
What NFL talent does Nebraska have right now? A transfer in Lee? This program is mired in mediocrity. Thank God Frost got here, maybe just in time, to literally save the program. No other way to spin it. GBR
Let's see what he can do with Morgan, who could project to 3rd round or so next year. If he develops and runs in the 4.4s, I could see him going higher. Off the top of my head, are there any other seniors that project right now???
4 possible.
Farmer starts as the 14th ranked OG this season. A good season might get him drafted in the later rounds.
Morgan starts the season as the 4th ranked WR. If he went Pro this year he likley wouldn't have been drafted so he was smart to return. he will be a high draft pick next year with a good season.
Freedom is the 39th ranked DE for his class so he has no chance of getting drafted. Mick is in the 30's for DT. No draft pick for him.
Aaron Williams starts out as the 19th ranked S. With a good season he might have a chance to get drafted in the 6th or 7th round.
Young starts out as the 18th ranked OLB. He will have a chance with a strong season.
Farmer, Morgan, Young and Aaron are the best chances right now. If Bell has a strong season he might go but we will see about that.
Foster is ranked 23rd so he will need a strong season to even have a chance.
Gifford might have a slim chance for a strong season.
But 4 is the number I would go with going into the season.
None of those guys are athletic enough to consider locks in the draft, outside of Morgan, who I think has a pretty high ceiling. That doesn't mean these guys can't contribute. Farmer needs to make a big leap. Williams and Young are not fast. Mick is a big kid but hasn't proven he can get off a block. It's a poor crop of NFL talent overall, is my point. They can be pretty good college players though. Let's hope that is the case.
