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Husker Betting Lines

J

JohnRossEwing

Assistant Head Coach
Jul 4, 2013
10,267
8,276
113
Total $300 Team Total $1

Saturday, September 2
Husker Future Games
06:00p CT 9-9-17 -- Nebraska @ Oregon
99001

Nebraska
+7 (-120)
99002

Oregon
-7 (-120)
06:00p CT 9-16-17 -- Northern Illinois @ Nebraska
99005

N Illinois
+16½ (-120)
99006

Nebraska
-16½ (-120)
06:00p CT 9-23-17 -- Rutgers @ Nebraska
99009

Rutgers
+19½ (-120)
99010

Nebraska
-19½ (-120)
06:00p CT 9-29-17 -- Nebraska @ Illinois
99015

Nebraska
-14 (-120)
99016

Illinois
+14 (-120)
06:00p CT 10-7-17 -- Wisconsin @ Nebraska
99019

Wisconsin
-6½ (-120)
99020

Nebraska
+6½ (-120)
06:00p CT 10-14-17 -- Ohio State @ Nebraska
99025

Ohio St
-14½ (-120)
99026

Nebraska
+14½ (-120)
06:00p CT 10-28-17 -- Nebraska @ Purdue
99029

Nebraska
-15½ (-120)
99030

Purdue
+15½ (-120)
06:00p CT 11-4-17 -- Northwestern @ Nebraska
99035

Northwestern
+3½ (-120)
99036

Nebraska
-3½ (-120)
06:00p CT 11-11-17 -- Nebraska @ Minnesota
99041

Nebraska
-1½ (-120)
99042

Minnesota
+1½ (-120)
06:00p CT 11-18-17 -- Nebraska @ Penn State
99045

Nebraska
+14½ (-120)
99046

Penn St
-14½ (-120)
06:00p CT 11-24-17 -- Iowa @ Nebraska
99049

Iowa
+3 (-120)
99050

Nebraska
-3 (-120)
Saturday, September 2
Husker Season Props
06:00p CT Tanner Lee total passing yards for 2017 Regular Season - Does not include Conference Championships or Bowl Games -- Must Start Week 1 for action
99101

Tanner Lee
o2850½ (-120)
99102

Passing Yards
u2850½ (-120)
06:00p CT Tanner Lee total passing TDs for 2017 Regular Season - Does not include Conference Championships or Bowl Games -- Must Start Week 1 for action
99109

Tanner Lee
o25½ (-120)
99110

TD Passes
u25½ (-120)
 
If we assume point spreads are predictors of future performance, Nebraska would lose 4 games, resulting in an 8-4 record (no spread for Arkansas State.)

2850 passing yards would be the equivalent of averaging 237 yards per game. I tend to think this is going to be close, but since an injury or new starter coming in could wreck that, I'd be tempted to bet under.

Same goes for passing TDs.

For the record, it's rare to see bets in college football naming one player specifically. I'm not sure who is running these bets, but they are rare.
 
chicolby said:
If we assume point spreads are predictors of future performance, Nebraska would lose 4 games, resulting in an 8-4 record (no spread for Arkansas State.)

2850 passing yards would be the equivalent of averaging 237 yards per game. I tend to think this is going to be close, but since an injury or new starter coming in could wreck that, I'd be tempted to bet under.

Same goes for passing TDs.

For the record, it's rare to see bets in college football naming one player specifically. I'm not sure who is running these bets, but they are rare.
Click to expand...
Sorry, the line for Ark St was -16
 
Lots of high lines in my opinion, but not unreasonable. Not sure how I would wager on those high lines.

I'm surprised we're +7 vs Oregon and only -1.5 vs Minnesota.

Given the yards and TD's for Tanner Lee, if he hits those lines right on the dot, he's looking at an average of 237 yards per game and just over 2 TDs per game. In 2016 there were 42 QB's that had over 2,850 yards passing (not sure if that included Conference Championships or Bowl Games though. Also in 2016 there were 28 QB's that had 25+ passing TD's.

Shoot Tommy had 2,180 yards passing and missed a couple of games.

Thoughts on Tanner Lee's yards passing and passing TD's for 2017?
 
Depends on how the games go,

In 2016 - the offense ran 923 plays and ran the ball 523 times. Where in 2015 they had 954 plays and 496 rushing attempts.

My opinion, the biggest reason for that is the regular season record in 2015 was 5-7, so when you are behind in games, and/ or unable to stop the opponent, you have to throw more so you can, hopefully, create more possessions and come back. In 2016 when the regular season record was 9-3, you were ahead more often, so you could utilize the run game, be it RB or QB RPO. Even if it was slightly less effective on a YPC basis from 2015-2016, it still ran clock.
 
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HuskerO said:
Lots of high lines in my opinion, but not unreasonable. Not sure how I would wager on those high lines.

I'm surprised we're +7 vs Oregon and only -1.5 vs Minnesota.

Given the yards and TD's for Tanner Lee, if he hits those lines right on the dot, he's looking at an average of 237 yards per game and just over 2 TDs per game. In 2016 there were 42 QB's that had over 2,850 yards passing (not sure if that included Conference Championships or Bowl Games though. Also in 2016 there were 28 QB's that had 25+ passing TD's.

Shoot Tommy had 2,180 yards passing and missed a couple of games.

Thoughts on Tanner Lee's yards passing and passing TD's for 2017?
Click to expand...

My thoughts...I like the overs...if he has two freaky games where he goes for 350 plus he is already at 800 yards.
 
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JohnRossEwing said:
My thoughts...I like the overs...if he has two freaky games where he goes for 350 plus he is already at 800 yards.
Click to expand...
That's actually 700, but I get your point. Also, if there are a couple games where he is dinged up, those 700 yards in two games becomes 700 yards in four games.

I wouldn't bet on individual player prospects because there is too much unknown. Look at the USC QB situation last year. Their starter probably had similar numbers projected, but was third string by the second half of the season. Unless a QB is a returning commodity and starter, I would steer clear of playing money on him.
 
Nebraska underdogs at home against osu and wisconsin???. I like the cover and outright win against whisky at home.. cover against osu all day jmho
 
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If Lee only has 25 td's for the year, we better have a dang good run game, a dang good defense, or both.
 
chicolby said:
That's actually 700, but I get your point. Also, if there are a couple games where he is dinged up, those 700 yards in two games becomes 700 yards in four games.

I wouldn't bet on individual player prospects because there is too much unknown. Look at the USC QB situation last year. Their starter probably had similar numbers projected, but was third string by the second half of the season. Unless a QB is a returning commodity and starter, I would steer clear of playing money on him.
Click to expand...
350 plus! Don't math me! Ha
 
Not a gambler... so an honest, but probably stupid question I've always wondered... Is there a difference between saying (for example) NEBRASKA -7 or NUs opponent +7? Isn't that essentially the same thing?
 
N-sane said:
Not a gambler... so an honest, but probably stupid question I've always wondered... Is there a difference between saying (for example) NEBRASKA -7 or NUs opponent +7? Isn't that essentially the same thing?
Click to expand...
It is...that is just for the purpose of the team you "click" on to make your bet.
 
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nebcountry said:
If Lee only has 25 td's for the year, we better have a dang good run game, a dang good defense, or both.
Click to expand...

We didn't have a dang good run game last year and Armstrong/ Fyfe only threw for 18. I would think if we can run for 18-20, down from 24, and net an additional 2 points per game in touchdowns, we would be just fine with 25 TDs threw the air.
 
I really love that Oregon line. The Ducks are going to roll in that one.
Illinois is going to suck this year, but Nebraska -14.5 is absurd. Bet the farm on the Illini to cover:

1. Nebraska has 6 days to prepare. (Friday night game)
2. Illinois has a bye week before the Huskers
3. First Night National (non BTN) TV conference game in Champaign in almost a decade. Illinois and crowd will be jacked for once.
4. Huskers have Wisconsin and Ohio State looming on the schedule.

Speaking of Wisconsin, I'm guessing that game will eventually draw a Primetime, under the lights kickoff. Nebraska won't lose that game by a touchdown if they lose it at all.
 
Cornicator said:
I really love that Oregon line. The Ducks are going to roll in that one.
Illinois is going to suck this year, but Nebraska -14.5 is absurd. Bet the farm on the Illini to cover:

1. Nebraska has 6 days to prepare. (Friday night game)
2. Illinois has a bye week before the Huskers
3. First Night National (non BTN) TV conference game in Champaign in almost a decade. Illinois and crowd will be jacked for once.
4. Huskers have Wisconsin and Ohio State looming on the schedule.

Speaking of Wisconsin, I'm guessing that game will eventually draw a Primetime, under the lights kickoff. Nebraska won't lose that game by a touchdown if they lose it at all.
Click to expand...
Lol oregon is gunna roll us? How so? Side bet? I'll take +7 all day
 
c3ntral08 said:
Lol oregon is gunna roll us? How so? Side bet? I'll take +7 all day
Click to expand...

1. Oregon returns 9 offensive starters, including a breakout Star at QB. Royce is back at running. And even know Taggart is now the Coach, that team won't be reinventing the wheel offensively. They have plenty of dynamic weapons to spread the wealth.

2. More importantly, Oregon parleyed a major Coup with the hiring of Jim Leavitt. I won't claim Leavitt has their defense playing top level, but they do return more experience than last season.

3. I don't believe Tanner and the younger wideouts will be able to keep pace in a shootout on the road.

I'm thinking Oregon wins something like 42-27
 
Cornicator said:
1. Oregon returns 9 offensive starters, including a breakout Star at QB. Royce is back at running. And even know Taggart is now the Coach, that team won't be reinventing the wheel offensively. They have plenty of dynamic weapons to spread the wealth.

2. More importantly, Oregon parleyed a major Coup with the hiring of Jim Leavitt. I won't claim Leavitt has their defense playing top level, but they do return more experience than last season.

3. I don't believe Tanner and the younger wideouts will be able to keep pace in a shootout on the road.

I'm thinking Oregon wins something like 42-27
Click to expand...


a new staff is going to take a 4-8 team and get immediate results ??? -- didn't think that was possible - I thought the first 2 years were supposed to be transition and then the 3rd year, even though the record might not show it, there should be some evidence of progress and then by year 5 a successful transition should be evident in the W-L column.
 
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Tuco Salamanca said:
We didn't have a dang good run game last year and Armstrong/ Fyfe only threw for 18. I would think if we can run for 18-20, down from 24, and net an additional 2 points per game in touchdowns, we would be just fine with 25 TDs threw the air.
Click to expand...

I shouldn't have used "dang good", that's too general.

I'm gonna start with something I found in a preview of Rutger's game against us. McKewon was their NU "insider". I know it's McKewon, but he does have more access to the team and coaches than I do. So McKewon, when asked about skill players, he mentions Bryant and Wilbon. Is it an oversight, or the way it is? I'll file that under interesting.

It's not a steadfast rule for me, but I see it played out quite a bit. Reserve RB's having higher ypc than the starters. Reserve RB's can come in fresh after defenses are worn down a bit. Some defenses may key more on the name brand guy. And the reserves may be getting yards off of plays that are not the staple plays. So Wilbon is our reserve RB that fits this not so steadfast rule last year, and I'll come back to this.

To quote Langsdorf, “We’re an inside zone team”. And it makes sense to me philosophically, if you want to open up the passing game, one way to do that is by running it up the gut. So I ask myself, can gap-duo zone blocking and a sprinkling of counter/jet sweep plays get it done for us in our run game? Now I come back to Wilbon. Can Wilbon be an effective inside zone RB? That's a "?" to me. Bryant is still a "?", he was a freshman so not necessarily bad, just not a proven commodity. Throw in Ozigbo, the other RB's, platooning, and the effectiveness of our OLine, and I come up with another "?" for our run game.

We did have 24 rushing TD's, just like you said. 2 from WR's, 9 from QB's, and 13 from RB's. TA led the team with 8 rushing TD's. It's easy enough to say we can make up some of TA's production elsewhere. That may be easier said than done. Don't get me wrong, it can be done. It's just more question mark than it is a certainty.

Diaco's defense. I'm no expert, but it seems to be schemed to stop big plays. Big plays are killers. So we may give up a relatively higher ypg without a full-blown squad of elite players, but we can still limit the big play. It is a new scheme for us though, and it'll have to be working well by the time we hit the back half of our schedule.So do we need to score around 30 to win games, or can around 20 get it done for us.

So that covers "dang good" running game and defense for my part of the discussion.

That brings me back to the OP. I don't see 25 throwing TD's getting us a successful season. Too many question marks.
 
jlb321 said:
a new staff is going to take a 4-8 team and get immediate results ??? -- didn't think that was possible - I thought the first 2 years were supposed to be transition and then the 3rd year, even though the record might not show it, there should be some evidence of progress and then by year 5 a successful transition should be evident in the W-L column.
Click to expand...
That is just at NU...cause of the toxins and stuff...
 
nebcountry said:
I shouldn't have used "dang good", that's too general.

I'm gonna start with something I found in a preview of Rutger's game against us. McKewon was their NU "insider". I know it's McKewon, but he does have more access to the team and coaches than I do. So McKewon, when asked about skill players, he mentions Bryant and Wilbon. Is it an oversight, or the way it is? I'll file that under interesting.

It's not a steadfast rule for me, but I see it played out quite a bit. Reserve RB's having higher ypc than the starters. Reserve RB's can come in fresh after defenses are worn down a bit. Some defenses may key more on the name brand guy. And the reserves may be getting yards off of plays that are not the staple plays. So Wilbon is our reserve RB that fits this not so steadfast rule last year, and I'll come back to this.

To quote Langsdorf, “We’re an inside zone team”. And it makes sense to me philosophically, if you want to open up the passing game, one way to do that is by running it up the gut. So I ask myself, can gap-duo zone blocking and a sprinkling of counter/jet sweep plays get it done for us in our run game? Now I come back to Wilbon. Can Wilbon be an effective inside zone RB? That's a "?" to me. Bryant is still a "?", he was a freshman so not necessarily bad, just not a proven commodity. Throw in Ozigbo, the other RB's, platooning, and the effectiveness of our OLine, and I come up with another "?" for our run game.

We did have 24 rushing TD's, just like you said. 2 from WR's, 9 from QB's, and 13 from RB's. TA led the team with 8 rushing TD's. It's easy enough to say we can make up some of TA's production elsewhere. That may be easier said than done. Don't get me wrong, it can be done. It's just more question mark than it is a certainty.

Diaco's defense. I'm no expert, but it seems to be schemed to stop big plays. Big plays are killers. So we may give up a relatively higher ypg without a full-blown squad of elite players, but we can still limit the big play. It is a new scheme for us though, and it'll have to be working well by the time we hit the back half of our schedule.So do we need to score around 30 to win games, or can around 20 get it done for us.

So that covers "dang good" running game and defense for my part of the discussion.

That brings me back to the OP. I don't see 25 throwing TD's getting us a successful season. Too many question marks.
Click to expand...

You can always look for why something won't be successful. That's easy to do. It just doesn't make sense to me.

It's like someone can look at an opponent that went 7-6 last year, and because they return a bunch of players, it will automatically be an improvement.

But our team returns 5 guys who started on the offensive line, assuming Conrad starts at C, 4 of whom were sophomores, and the assumption is they will suck. This from a team that won 9 games. I have a feeling it is just people looking to have lower expectations so that if the team exceeds those expectations they can feel good about it and not feel like a kick in the gut.

I fully expect the offensive line to be productive. 5 guys who started at least 4 games last year return.
 
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Tuco Salamanca said:
Indirectly. The smart ass comments about it taking 2 years here vs Oregon. One hired a head coach that ran a similar, albeit not exact, offense to the guy he replaced, the other hired a guy that was about as polar opposite as you can get.
Click to expand...

Ah, got it!

Plus, from all accounts it seems the Oregon was toxin free :)
 
Nebraska
Nebraska
Rutgers
Nebraska
Nebraska
Ohio State
Purdue
NW
Nebraska
Penn State
Iowa (homer pick)
 
Tuco Salamanca said:
You can always look for why something won't be successful. That's easy to do. It just doesn't make sense to me.

It's like someone can look at an opponent that went 7-6 last year, and because they return a bunch of players, it will automatically be an improvement.

But our team returns 5 guys who started on the offensive line, assuming Conrad starts at C, 4 of whom were sophomores, and the assumption is they will suck. This from a team that won 9 games. I have a feeling it is just people looking to have lower expectations so that if the team exceeds those expectations they can feel good about it and not feel like a kick in the gut.

I fully expect the offensive line to be productive. 5 guys who started at least 4 games last year return.
Click to expand...

I'm not looking at reasons for why something won't be successful. Maybe it read that way? Those are my questions that will get answered as the season unfolds.

Realism, realistic, reality, all terms that made their way into the conversations this week. If you (or others) continue reading this post, you'll see these terms pop up. Not to be smug or smart aleck, but it's what's realistic to me.

I believe in another year older another year better. It applies to our players, just like it applies to players on other teams. Incremental improvement is one thing, step-wise improvement is a whole different level.

If you have an average starting RB, are the guys on the bench superstars? No, they're reserves to an average RB. Incremental improvement gets them back into the average ballpark. Reality. Wilbon does have a different talent set, thus the question mark.

Concerning the OLine. How would you grade them for last season? Me, I'd say average. Not average for NU glory days, but average for college football. Should I expect incremental or step-wise improvement. I'm expecting incremental, that's realistic to me.

Now back to the OP. TLee 25½ TD passes. Just eyeballing it, seems like a good number to pick for O/U. His previous season high is 12 TD's, but he'll be in Riley's offense.

That leads me to Russell Wilson. Wilson had a phenomenal year at Wiscy after being an all ACC conference player. Is it normal to expect players to have a massive step-wise improvement? No, of course not. Wilson is a what-if, best case scenario, not a model of what to expect. I expect TLee put up better numbers than his Tulane stats, two years worth of incremental improvement. That's my reality.
 
SWIowahawks said:
Only? I would think most schools would be fine with 2+ TD's a game.
Click to expand...

2015 you guys have 35 rushing TD's and 17 passing TD's. 12-2 record.
2016 you have have 23 rushing TD's and 17 passing TD's. 8-5 record.

If one takes the approach from a #runthedamnball perspective, 2 throwing TD's is good. That is not NU's approach anymore, and higher production in passing than running is showing up on this board. In order to have a good record the TD's have to come from somewhere, or your defense has to be stout, or both.

I don't have to ask you if you would prefer your coming season to be more like 2015 or 2016.
 
Why Wilson as an example? NC State was a top 25 team with Wilson.

I would look at Entling transferring from Purdue to LSU as a better example.

His individual statistics improved, probably incrementally, but because he was playing with considerably better talent around him. His win/loss record improved more than incrementally. He threw 16 TD and 12 int in 12 starts at Purdue and was 2-10 as a starter. In 10 games as a starter at LSU, he was 7-3 with 11 TD and 5 picks. He was a 55% passer at Purdue and 60% at LSU.
 
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