Good Write-Up On Upcoming Season

[mpbrown27]

Here's a pretty good write-up from SB Nation on the upcoming season.

Here's a question for the group. What will the mood of the program be like if the Huskers win six or seven games this season? How will that affect the 2018 recruiting class? How will it impact the 2019 class? What will the 2019 win/loss expectations be in 2019?

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ebraska-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

 

[jlb321]

2 year transition for new staff

in year 3 the results should at least match those of the staff they replaced. 6-7 wins would be under-performing.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I am generally opposed to articles and threads that worry about what might happen next year if this season isn't successful. What the heck is the point other than to generate clicks.

I am very much an in the moment guy. Worrying about what might happen if something else happens doesn't even make sense, there isn't a constant to compare the variable against.

The article does a decent job of explaining how the 6-7 season wasn't as bad as it looked and how the 9-4 season wasn't as good as it looked. It does a good job of pointing out how young and injured the OLine was last season.

The problem I have with the article is that the writer was quick to point out how lucky Nebraska was in some in the wins, but doesn't talk about how injuries to Armstrong and the OLine impacted the Iowa, Tennessee and Ohio St games. It only mentions that Nebraska struggled against the good teams they played.

I am more interested to see how Langsdorf calls the offense this year. My opinion is that he was very conservative in his play calling last year. That affected the statistical analysis these guys want to use as a basis for their projections. I know a lot of you all are thinking conservative, we threw the ball a ton! I can see that opinion but I am talking about being able to call and execute any play in the playbook at any time. The ability to go deep on 1st and 10, or hit a 7 yard out and follow it up with a draw or a play action pass. Our gameplanning was predictable, especially late in the year.

 

[yunginsNU2]

Injuries happen to every team.. I have adopted the next man up theory.. Cant use injuries as why we lost any games. Imho

 

[Cornicator]

Here's a pretty good write-up from SB Nation on the upcoming season.

Here's a question for the group. What will the mood of the program be like if the Huskers win six or seven games this season? How will that affect the 2018 recruiting class? How will it impact the 2019 class? What will the 2019 win/loss expectations be in 2019?

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ebraska-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

If Nebraska only wins 6 games in 2017, Eichorst will lose his job. If Riley wins less than 6 games, I believe he will be out of a job as well.

He would be the 1st Nebraska football coach in over 60 years, to have 2 losing seasons in 3 years.

More importantly, Riley is only 1-5 vs. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. If Nebraska finishes with 6 or less wins, that number would almost assuredly fall to 1-8. The AD definitely wouldn't survive that scenario.

I think Riley needs to finish 8-4 or better to maintain the recruiting class, and while the schedule will be more difficult in 2018, keep in mind Nebraska could return 17 or 18 starters with a roster entirely of Riley's own players.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Injuries happen to every team.. I have adopted the next man up theory.. Cant use injuries as why we lost any games. Imho

Injuries to key players and short position groups are the reason why some games were lost or the games weren't as competetive as they should have been. You don't have to like it but saying "every team deals with injuries" is great fan speak but not realistic. Nebraska was not in a position last season with regards to quality depth, to adopt the next man up theory without a drop in production.

 

[huskerfan1414]

Am i wrong in the following things?
-theres no way Lee is worse than Armstrong. By all accounts he is the style of QB riley and langsdorf want, thus they know how to coach his style and they can call plays. At worst hes a wash, right?
-our O Line should be better. We lose our center, thats it, and he was replaceable. Got experience and health (knock on wood) coming back. Plus they can now make a pocket for.a qb that will stay in it.
-RB is being replaced, but again at worst its a wash, right? Newby wasnt that good, and hopefully Oz is healthy, plus a stud recruit turns soph....
-wr is, to me, the only position on the field that i can see being "worse", but then again when you look at the names we return there is serious potential there. It may not be a playoff group, but its certainly not a 6 win group for petes sake.
I really believe we can win ten.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I am with you 1414. 10 may be a stretch but so is 6 in the other direction.

Ark St
Northern Ill
Illinois
Purdue
Rutgers

That is 5 right there.

i can find 3 more and if things bounce right 4.

 

[huskerfan1414]

I am with you 1414. 10 may be a stretch but so is 6 in the other direction.

Ark St
Northern Ill
Illinois
Purdue
Rutgers

That is 5 right there.

i can find 3 more and if things bounce right 4.

Same, I add Iowa, Minny, Oregon, and NW. NW is the one Im most scared of but we get them at home. I understand the Oregon brand fear, but we get them early and they were not good last year and new staff.

Beating wisky or penn state would give us ten but that would be tough and truly awesome as those are good teams however wisky might be due for a down season..... Or wait til the bowl game. Either way 10 is possibe and 9 is more realistic to me than 6.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

Injuries happen to every team.. I have adopted the next man up theory.. Cant use injuries as why we lost any games. Imho

For some reason that argument never works as an excuse for why we lose games yet people are always willing to trot it out as an excuse for our opponents and why they lose to us. We're supposed to overcome injuries, but our opponents aren't.

 

[huskerfan1414]

For some reason that argument never works as an excuse for why we lose games yet people are always willing to trot it out as an excuse for our opponents and why they lose to us. We're supposed to overcome injuries, but our opponents aren't.

When did that happen? It may have, I really dont know its not rhetorical.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

For some reason that argument never works as an excuse for why we lose games yet people are always willing to trot it out as an excuse for our opponents and why they lose to us. We're supposed to overcome injuries, but our opponents aren't.

Like Oregon and them losing Freeman?

 

[DudznSudz]

I usually find myself in total or near-total agreement with Tuco's analysis, and here I completely agree. That article is good because it hits you with the stats, but the speculation ABOUT those stats is where I think it gets pessimistic and very iffy.

As to the other thoughts about the trend of the program, Riley, etc/, I would give Riley another 3 years no questions asked right now based solely on how he is managing the program, the hires he's made, and the level of recruiting we're starting to see here.

I think it would be wonderful for Riley if he were able to get us to the Playoffs or even the Championship game before he retires, but he was hired mostly to right the ship, rebuild the program, and get things stable and less divided by anger and disfunction; he's accomplishing that goal with gusto. I don't see the problem with it at all. After the tailspin this program entered after Solich's firing (I know Solich wasn't the best coach ever, but he still had the Nebraska machine churning before he was let go), its going to take years of rebuilding to get it to be good again. It just is, sorry. We aren't the Nebraska of old, and never will be again, but we can rebuild a good, competitive program if you give a guy brought in to do exactly that time to do it in.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

When did that happen? It may have, I really dont know its not rhetorical.

In addition to Oregon and losing Freeman like mentioned above, probably the worst was Ohio State in 2011 and Braxton Miller getting injured during the game. Some people suggested that because of his injury it essentially was an illegitimate win and that was the only reason why OSU lost(never mind that the game had already started turning around before his injury).

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Michigan the year they lost Robinson and the backup looked like a jr high QB

 

[Cornicator]

Am i wrong in the following things?
-theres no way Lee is worse than Armstrong. By all accounts he is the style of QB riley and langsdorf want, thus they know how to coach his style and they can call plays. At worst hes a wash, right?

Will Lee be better in the passing game? Most likely, but keep in mind Armstrong only tossed 8 interceptions and was only sacked 9 times. You have to assume both those numbers will go up with Lee. TD's and Completion percentage should also go up, but the other negative plays like go up anywhere from 50% to 200%.



-our O Line should be better. We lose our center, thats it, and he was replaceable. Got experience and health (knock on wood) coming back. Plus they can now make a pocket for.a qb that will stay in it.

I think the run blocking will be much improved due to familiarity, teams backing off the box, and more talent in the interior. But teams are going ramp up the pass rush more than ever before vs. Nebraska. Can the Huskers effectively stop teams from constantly collapsing the pocket and trying to hit Tanner in the mouth.

-RB is being replaced, but again at worst its a wash, right? Newby wasnt that good, and hopefully Oz is healthy, plus a stud recruit turns soph....

I believe Tre Bryant is going to be a great player at Nebraska. You will get no arguments from me. However, Nebraska only lost 5 fumbles last season. That number likely goes up.

-wr is, to me, the only position on the field that i can see being "worse", but then again when you look at the names we return there is serious potential there.

Really just need DPE to stay healthy and Stan to stay out of trouble. If that happens, I believe younger guys like Spielman and Lindsey will have enough time to progress and eventually become legit playmakers. I also believe that will allow the complimentary guys like Reimers or the young tight ends to fit their roles. But DPE and STAN MUST stay healthy and on the field, or it could become an issue.


It may not be a playoff group, but its certainly not a 6 win group for petes sake.
I really believe we can win ten.

I think you forgot about the defensive side of the football.

 

[jflores]

I usually find myself in total or near-total agreement with Tuco's analysis, and here I completely agree. That article is good because it hits you with the stats, but the speculation ABOUT those stats is where I think it gets pessimistic and very iffy.

As to the other thoughts about the trend of the program, Riley, etc/, I would give Riley another 3 years no questions asked right now based solely on how he is managing the program, the hires he's made, and the level of recruiting we're starting to see here.

I think it would be wonderful for Riley if he were able to get us to the Playoffs or even the Championship game before he retires, but he was hired mostly to right the ship, rebuild the program, and get things stable and less divided by anger and disfunction; he's accomplishing that goal with gusto. I don't see the problem with it at all. After the tailspin this program entered after Solich's firing (I know Solich wasn't the best coach ever, but he still had the Nebraska machine churning before he was let go), its going to take years of rebuilding to get it to be good again. It just is, sorry. We aren't the Nebraska of old, and never will be again, but we can rebuild a good, competitive program if you give a guy brought in to do exactly that time to do it in.

I've sort of maintained my own personal conspiracy theory that Riley really represents a two front approach to the future of Husker football.

One is that he gets lucky and wins us a title of some sort, but mostly he's going to rebuild the roster and fan base. Then if it becomes apparent he's not the guy, he retires citing age, or is outright fired, and NU gives a long look to someone like Frost.

The spectre of Frost would be hard to dismiss for the administration. You have a young, TO molded guy out there who someone else will take if you don't. With the way the pendulum swings the crowd throb for a Nebraska Guy will be immense.

 

[jlb321]

In addition to Oregon and losing Freeman like mentioned above, probably the worst was Ohio State in 2011 and Braxton Miller getting injured during the game. Some people suggested that because of his injury it essentially was an illegitimate win and that was the only reason why OSU lost(never mind that the game had already started turning around before his injury).

The fact that the 2011 OSU and last years Oregon squads were both shitty teams that finished near the bottom of their conferences was much more of a factor in us pulling out last second wins at home than the injuries.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Cornicator I appreciate your analysis but Why will sacks automatically go up? The short to intermediate passing game can take pressure off the OL. If teams send 5 or more to generate a pass rush the screen and draw game is a perfect counter. While I agree Armstrong's mobility helped reduce the number of sacks, I believe Lee will climb the pocket and hit the check down at a better rate than Armstrong scrambled for the one or 2 yards to avoid it being a sack. I'll be interested to see the interception totals. I could see 10-14 interceptions but 200% would be like 24 INTs. I don't see that.

 

[Husker Sledge]

To win I'd put Oregon at 40%, Wisconsin 50%, OSU 30%. The way it's been with Iowa I'd put that at 50/50 even at home. As it looks now that road game at PSU is about right. Gonna be really tough in that atmosphere.

 

[jlb321]

Wins

Ark st
N Ill
Rutgers
Illinois
Purdue
Minnesota (new staff)

?

Oregon (new staff)
OSU
PSU
Iowa
Wisconsin
NW

4 of those 6 are at home -- figure out how to win 3 of those 6 games

9 wins. Less than 9 is underachieving and is below the Pelini standard that many on here joked about.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

The fact that the 2011 OSU and last years Oregon squads were both shitty teams that finished near the bottom of their conferences was much more of a factor in us pulling out last second wins at home than the injuries.

Ohio St went 12-1 in 2010 and 12-0 in 2012. Not sure they were shitty in 2011 as much as they were poorly coached.

Oregon will have a better record this year than last. Again the team was poorly coached as much as they were shitty.

But wasnt the point of the discussion. the point was that fans are quick to find a "reason" , be it injury to a star player or boneheaded decisions by a coach for poo pooing a win but the reasons for a loss are always described as an excuse and aren't tolerated. Ha ha

 

[swissticuffs]

Here's a pretty good write-up from SB Nation on the upcoming season.

Here's a question for the group. What will the mood of the program be like if the Huskers win six or seven games this season? How will that affect the 2018 recruiting class? How will it impact the 2019 class? What will the 2019 win/loss expectations be in 2019?

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ebraska-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

1. The mood will be poor. When fan's moods are anything but poor afger 6-7 wins that means they don't care about the program.

2. There will be decommits and the class won't look near as nice.

3. It will affect the 2019 class.

4. The minimum expectation has to be the same every year. Win the West...If you don't win the West you can't compete for championships.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

1. The mood will be poor. When fan's moods are anything but poor afger 6-7 wins that means they don't care about the program.

2. There will be decommits and the class won't look near as nice.

3. It will affect the 2019 class.

4. The minimum expectation has to be the same every year. Win the West...If you don't win the West you can't compete for championships.

Why do people do this? How about asking what things will be like if we do well? I don't even think about what things will be like if we do poorly unless it happens. I don't think it will happen either, so it's something I don't need to spend anytime thinking about.

 

[DudznSudz]

I've sort of maintained my own personal conspiracy theory that Riley really represents a two front approach to the future of Husker football.

One is that he gets lucky and wins us a title of some sort, but mostly he's going to rebuild the roster and fan base. Then if it becomes apparent he's not the guy, he retires citing age, or is outright fired, and NU gives a long look to someone like Frost.

The spectre of Frost would be hard to dismiss for the administration. You have a young, TO molded guy out there who someone else will take if you don't. With the way the pendulum swings the crowd throb for a Nebraska Guy will be immense.

Yeah, this is what I keep saying. Riley is mostly a rebuilder finishing out his coaching years helping a formerly blue-blood program get back in the running for serious title contention. I think you're right, at a certain point in the near future, he'll either have gotten us to winning the Big Ten Championship and into Playoff contention, or he'll retire citing old age or be shown the door in a ...diplomatic way, and then we'll either look at Frost, or some other rock star hire to come in to an already functioning system. This is the double-bonus of Frost; he's Nebraska legacy, Osborne-era player, etc and seems to be a good coach and great recruiter, but he's unlikely to want to replace all of the assistants that are currently doing well here and completely re-invent the wheel again because he's still a young coach who doesn't have a ton of guys around him yet, and who respects our program.

Either way, the program is being righted.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

Yeah, this is what I keep saying. Riley is mostly a rebuilder finishing out his coaching years helping a formerly blue-blood program get back in the running for serious title contention. I think you're right, at a certain point in the near future, he'll either have gotten us to winning the Big Ten Championship and into Playoff contention, or he'll retire citing old age or be shown the door in a ...diplomatic way, and then we'll either look at Frost, or some other rock star hire to come in to an already functioning system. This is the double-bonus of Frost; he's Nebraska legacy, Osborne-era player, etc and seems to be a good coach and great recruiter, but he's unlikely to want to replace all of the assistants that are currently doing well here and completely re-invent the wheel again because he's still a young coach who doesn't have a ton of guys around him yet, and who respects our program.

Either way, the program is being righted.

Here again, I have to say that people shouldn't get their hearts set on Frost too much. First of all, he has to prove that he is worthy of being our head coach, and second of all, he has to decide he wants to come back and coach here, something that I don't think is nearly as much of a sure thing as most people think. I fear we are really setting up a lot of people for bitter disappointment if you just automatically assume that he's going to end up here. If he proves he is worthy of being our head coach and wants to come here, then great. But the future of our program does not rest on him and people should recognize that he may not be our next head coach, or ever come back here. And we will be just fine if that's the case.

 

[jflores]

Here again, I have to say that people shouldn't get their hearts set on Frost too much. First of all, he has to prove that he is worthy of being our head coach, and second of all, he has to decide he wants to come back and coach here, something that I don't think is nearly as much of a sure thing as most people think. I fear we are really setting up a lot of people for bitter disappointment if you just automatically assume that he's going to end up here. If he proves he is worthy of being our head coach and wants to come here, then great. But the future of our program does not rest on him.

NU fans are willing to toss aside the darndest things though. When BC crashed the ship, we were begging to "bring in TO and bring in some NU guys" and we basically brought him in to go fish Pelini back. (Its hard to imagine after one year in 2003, we saw Pelini as a Nebraska guy but such was the heart throb).

I'm rarely a fatalist, but I have a sneaking suspicion we will find some way to make Frost coach (if he wants to be here), even if he doesn't generate a winning resume as long as my arm. Its hard for me to imagine a fan base that thinks it has Jim Harbaugh as a native son, and just lets him float in the wind for a whole career never to return.

But the flip side of that hope is, if Frost returns and is a bust....that whole Nebraska Way hope folks are clinging to for a return to glory is going to cause a bunch of depression and heart attacks around the State.

 

[dinglefritz]

Injuries happen to every team.. I have adopted the next man up theory.. Cant use injuries as why we lost any games. Imho

I hope you don't bet any money on sports then. Last time I checked key injuries change the expectations for any team in any sport.

 

[swissticuffs]

Why do people do this? How about asking what things will be like if we do well? I don't even think about what things will be like if we do poorly unless it happens. I don't think it will happen either, so it's something I don't need to spend anytime thinking about.

I think fan base history indicates all of the above is likely in the "negative scenario".

My guess is 8-4 or 7-5 and then see how much better the roster gets. The program is in need of a signature moment. Is it possible that happens this year? Yes. Is it likely, meh....not sure.

 

[DudznSudz]

I think fan base history indicates all of the above is likely in the "negative scenario".

My guess is 8-4 or 7-5 and then see how much better the roster gets. The program is in need of a signature moment. Is it possible that happens this year? Yes. Is it likely, meh....not sure.

Beating Penn State would be a big deal signature moment. I think they're good, but I don't think they're as good as they're thought of right now.

I really, really hope we go 8-4 next year, but I could see us doing 7-5. Really though, all it takes is a decent season full of hard fought close games and some nice ass-whippings of lesser teams and we'll do fine on the recruiting class, and that's all that matters. Keep getting talent in the door, keep developing players, and the rest will follow now that we have competent coaches (for the most part).

 

[jeans15]

We own Penn St.

 

[huskerfan1414]

For defense i saw we are at worst a wash everywhere. I dont see how we dont improve on Defense.
Look im not saying we are going to finish as a top ten team, but six is redicilous. I think 9 is most likely unfortunately, but ten is more possible this season than last. Much more likely than 8 or fewer, imo.

 

[huskerfan1414]

NU fans are willing to toss aside the darndest things though. When BC crashed the ship, we were begging to "bring in TO and bring in some NU guys" and we basically brought him in to go fish Pelini back. (Its hard to imagine after one year in 2003, we saw Pelini as a Nebraska guy but such was the heart throb).

I'm rarely a fatalist, but I have a sneaking suspicion we will find some way to make Frost coach (if he wants to be here), even if he doesn't generate a winning resume as long as my arm. Its hard for me to imagine a fan base that thinks it has Jim Harbaugh as a native son, and just lets him float in the wind for a whole career never to return.

But the flip side of that hope is, if Frost returns and is a bust....that whole Nebraska Way hope folks are clinging to for a return to glory is going to cause a bunch of depression and heart attacks around the State.

Sounds as though you are just as guilty of hoping he is a bust as husker fans are hoping hes the next osborne. And last i checked, he is doing pretty good and will bein a major conference someday.
I see our odds of ever having him here ate 10 percent or lower. His name will always be in consideration but these things have to line up and timing has to be perfect for both parties...and who knows you may be right he might suck at UCF.
I am getting tired of the bashing of the Nebraska way...it was pretty damn good and is the only reason we all care about NU and arent Iowa. If Frost is a good candidate he absolutely should be given more consideration for that reason.
I dunno if I would want Frost or not but I do want people who give a crap about NU around the program, and not callahans who see us as just a job. One of the things i like most about Riley is that he loves it here and IS like T.O in personality....as much as ya'll hate TO its true.
Riley is proof that you dont need to be from NU to embrace the state fans and history, but i also dont think we can just write off and sever the ties to our past as some seem to want.

 

[huskerfan1414]

Beating Penn State would be a big deal signature moment. I think they're good, but I don't think they're as good as they're thought of right now.

I really, really hope we go 8-4 next year, but I could see us doing 7-5. Really though, all it takes is a decent season full of hard fought close games and some nice ass-whippings of lesser teams and we'll do fine on the recruiting class, and that's all that matters. Keep getting talent in the door, keep developing players, and the rest will follow now that we have competent coaches (for the most part).

At what point does 7-5, and losses to the likes of iowa hurt that recruiting though?
Maybe it wouldnt? I dont want to find out.

 

[DudznSudz]

At what point does 7-5, and losses to the likes of iowa hurt that recruiting though?
Maybe it wouldnt? I dont want to find out.

If you keep doing that for like, 5-6 years, then it hurts. I think for the next couple of years, you can still very easily sell recruits on "Come be a part of this, we're rebuilding." If you do that for over 5 years though, then a whole cycle of your own recruits has gone through and you can't say your'e rebuilding anymore. Then, you are just...where you are at.

 

[DudznSudz]

At what point does 7-5, and losses to the likes of iowa hurt that recruiting though?
Maybe it wouldnt? I dont want to find out.

And FYI, I keep downplaying next year because I think 2018 is the year we really start clicking and become a legit badass team.

 

[bomber89]

I won't change my stance. Nebraska should win the west this year and compete for B1G championship. Anything less is a disappointment for me. If Riley wins 6?, I just can't even comprehend that.

 

[jflores]

Sounds as though you are just as guilty of hoping he is a bust as husker fans are hoping hes the next osborne. And last i checked, he is doing pretty good and will bein a major conference someday.

How is saying "if" mean that I am rooting for him to fail. If anything, I find myself following the crowd into giving the guy a shot here, and certainly not failing anywhere.

But I do have enough clear eyes to realize that if NU's version of Jesus can't raise Lazarus, its going to be a sucker punch to the nuts for this State.

 

[huskerfan1414]

How is saying "if" mean that I am rooting for him to fail. If anything, I find myself following the crowd into giving the guy a shot here, and certainly not failing anywhere.

But I do have enough clear eyes to realize that if NU's version of Jesus can't raise Lazarus, its going to be a sucker punch to the nuts for this State.

I dont think we will have to worry. UCF is either going to prove he can or cant.....
and like i said the timing would really have to work out which would be difficult.

 

[jflores]

I dont think we will have to worry. UCF is either going to prove he can or cant.....
and like i said the timing would really have to work out which would be difficult.

I don't see the timing as a whole huge issue. Riley's future will be adjudicated here in 2 years basically, and if Frost is looking for "the next big job" next year, he might wait one more year to see if Riley is packing up or not. (I haven't followed Frost all that closely lately, he might be more than 2 years away from the Big Show, I don't know).

If Riley's sticking around, then good things are happening and we won't need Frost anyway.