I find it very interesting we are only 2.5 dogs on the road to a ranked Colorado . Vegas is begging people to bet CU and they probably are. This smells like a trap game for gamblers. Honestly this is the most positive sign I’ve seen for us this weekend.
Gambling Week 2
- Thread starter leodisflowers
- Start date
We'd need ridge to clarify that, but another thought I had.
it says Tech is 15-1 as a home dog of more than 4 pts after ATS loss
Doesn't look like the number of points they were favored by, it just says after ATS loss. That could be they lost by 1 point on the road as a favorite and their next game at home they were more than a 4 point underdog they are 15-1.
Or in this case, they lost on the road ATS and now at home are more than a 4 pt dog.
Guessing there was a time or two they were a double digit favorite on the road and lost and returned home a 4 pt dog and overall have went 15-1. The overall data is really good, but to get to the finite points I'd have to have the software.
Hope I didn't make it worse Tuco.
It's fine. I am just saying that I don't necessarily care what their record is coming off an ATS loss. They could have still won the game and lost ATS. The fact is that Tech was a double digit road favorite and lost the game out right.
That is much different trend than simply being a 4 point home dog coming off an ATS loss.
What I am looking for is their record when they are a 4 point home dog coming off a SU loss, then more specifically when that SU loss was when they were a double digit road favorite.
I just don't think the trend referenced is all that relevant.
I find it very interesting we are only 2.5 dogs on the road to a ranked Colorado . Vegas is begging people to bet CU and they probably are. This smells like a trap game forgamblers. Honestly this is the most positive sign I’ve seen for us this weekend.
@K_Y_E I’ve thought “psh” on a lot of bets Before and lost. Anyone that says they haven’t probably really doesn’t bet or lies
OT type comment, when I played horses I always knew, at the track, any social success would be a business failure.
So I kept to myself.
Trends dont matter in cfb unless the trend is THIS team. This Tech team had nothing to do with the trending numbers.
So the trend that NU has lost 25 games by a touchdown or less in the last 5 years, only applies to THIS team?
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I'll post to my own post. I'm going to play 6 parlays today. (2) 3 teamers, (2) 4 teamers, and (2) 5 teamers.
I'm seeing if scarlet chooses to make a top play today by 4 p.m. and if he does, I will play a 50.00 3 teamer for the room.
Thus far, I'm only going to wager $ 140.00 because thats the most I've ever lost at the racetrack in a day, and I know a helluva lot more about horses than I do wagering on football.
No This Team has lost 1 game by a touchdown or less. As betting goes playing that trend is worthless with NU or any other team.
Shit, same here!
But I would say, don't take "advice" from anyone.
Either decide to be what your friends bet because it is tons of fun or bet what you think is best.
Ain't no one really got a ****ing idea.
You do you, and I'll do me. I'm not gonna argue a pointless argument.
How many players on this team have seen a LOT of those games decided by less than a touchdown? 3/5 or 4/5 of the OL, not including their backups, 3 of the top RB's, about 6 guys on the defensive side of the ball. not including their backups. The year of the team may have changed, but their ability to continue to lose close games has been part of their makeup for 5 years.
Until NU flushes out the Pipers, Corcorans, Benharts, Robinsons, Newsomes, Reimers, Henrichs, etc, it will possibly continue.
Some teams find a way to win, others find a way to lose.
That's a trend.
I think at the end of the day, guys want to lose in the way they want to lose. Most guys don't want to listen to other people. And usually, that's a good thing.
Saw on ESPN 90% of the public is on Colorado. Line is staying strong. We'll see what happens.
Last week CU entered the stadium with designer sunglasses. Today, its gonna be a new line of Michael Strahan suits.
I can't wait for the CU v. Oregon contest. That will be a real battle of fashions.
I can't wait for CU to get smoked in the fashion department.
Seems like a good betting opportunity to go against the week 1 sensation, I just don't know if the Huskers are up to it. If I felt better about the QB situation maybe.
Agree...all I can lean on is whenever everyone is so sure of the outcome...it seems to go the other way frequently
Well Oregon got a pick 6 with :30 left to cover, so I hope you didn't take Tech.
I had two "problem games" when I played my 5 team parlay. Northwestern (yes) and the Oregon/Tech game.
So I hedged both 50.00 parlays and got lucky when NW covered and it didn't make any difference which team covered, cause I was good, but I was rooting for Oregon cause I thought maybe Tuco played them.
I thought Syracuse and Memphis would cover and they did, so all total with the smaller 3 and 4 teams I missed, but hit the 5 teamer and netted 960.00.
The game that toasted me was Maryland.
I found, since I'm a football wagering newbie, that I didn't enjoy Saturday as much as normal. Typically, I'm not worrying about scores all over the country and it took a little enjoyment out of it. This week, I think I'm going to tailor my wagers differently, so I don't have to watch so many scores.
I played 12 different teams in the different parlays, so I think I will construct my wagers different this week. My generic excuse is "its still an experiment" so I have some built in excuses for a couple more weeks. LOL
It became work, and I'm way too lazy to work at my age.
By the way, those picks you made were damn good. I wanted to post to that posting, but I couldnt find it. When Im done with this post, I'm gonna go up and put in my comments about your work.
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I did not use that trend, and took Oregon -6 1/2. Got lucky but 90% of the time luck is what is needed.
These 5 picks were overall very good. Everyone of these teams covered except Tech, and if Oregon doesn't get that real late score, Tech covers too. Of course, woulda/shoulda/coulda.
So, that's damn good ridge. One thing about data, either its really good or its not. In this case, if a person can spread out on the teams, that is winning football. I know in a later post, I said I was only playing the 3 teams that had a 0 loss percentage, and of course, they all 3 covered. GA South, Cal, and Cincy.
If you don't mind my asking, what site or data did you use? I'd like to have my grandson put together a type of relational database and see if I can implement some data in addition to what I already have.
OT: By the way, this week on my stuff, Vegas has Florida State the top team in the country. I'm gonna do another post to update some of Vegas' changes in the event it helps someone.
It's like the week before, I didn't play Penn State, and they scored with 6 seconds to go to cover.
If Franklin takes a knee, Penn State doesn't cover, instead he runs a QB keeper and they score. Luck is big.
Myself as well. I'll take it because like you said I tend to be on the other side of that shit a lot. I'll take the cash.
The main trend finder I use is Marc Lawrence's Playbook magazine. For each college team 5 good trends 3 bad trends and 2 ugly trends. For the pros he has a ton of trends and adds in O/U trends, division data and trends for 4 game blocks throughout the year (i.e. games 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 & 13-17) plus coaching trends.
So there are tons of trends to look at. Lawrence is big on revenge in college football and also what a team does before or after a particular opponent. Like Nebraska is 1-5 before Purdue the last 6, so take Northwestern on 10/21 vs the Huskers.
Then I sprinkle in a little Phil Steele mainly early in the year, primarily to see what teams have return starters at QB in conferences like Sun Belt or C-USA. Love jumping on those shitty teams in the lower conferences and fading them, except for the MAC. That is one conference that seems to trip me up from time to time.
Thanks ridge. About the only games I probably won't touch are the true state rivalry games, those are so unpredictable.
I'm a big fan of sandwich games. Like Texas, looks like a helluva team, but how flat might they be after that huge win against Bama? There are others.
All things being equal, I know I won't play the NU v. NW game, but there would be a lot of money to be made that game if NU chokes in Lincoln as a decent favorite.
Anyhow, good stuff ridge.
Man...did you kill yourself after these? Haha
I’m the Jim Cramer of betting. that’s the beauty of parlays… might as well lose them all . Funny though, I hit my nfl parlay 🤣
Super, you know yourself, one week you can look like a genius and the next week you can look like a total idiot.
If it were easy, everyone would be making money wagering on their opinions.
As I tell my wife, "if you're not in it, you can't win it."
I said Jill not kill. A fate much worse than death..
If you haven't had your ass kicked when gambling, then you haven't been playing long enough.
It's just, turn the page, review where you "may" have went wrong, adjust, and then proceed.
Trust me, most of my biggest victories have came on the heels of screwing up and then wising up.
Lost some juice. Which, considering how I started, I was okay with.
