Frost top 20 class in 2019? Yes, according to the data

[activenumo]

Current head coaches. Transition class vs full cycle. The majority of active head coaches did better with their first full cycle than their transition class. That isn't a surprising stat, but how consistent it is across the country regardless of location and conference gets your attention.

Chances are very good that Frost will bring in a recruiting class that will be in the top 20 for 2019 NSD. If that does happen, it will be +7 average spot improvement (or better) over Riley's classes. Meaning, significantly better talent would be coming to Nebraska.

Steve Addazio 35 (86th to 51st)
Jim Harbaugh 29 (37th to 8th)
Mike Gundy 29 (47th to 18th)
Lovie Smith 27 (73rd to 46th)
Justin Wilcox 27 (70th to 43rd)
Dave Doeren 25 (67th to 51st)
Pat Fitzgerald 24 (71st to 47th)
DJ Durkin 23 (41st to 18th)
Chris Ash 22 (64th to 22nd)
PJ Fleck - 22 (59th to 37th)
Jeff Brohm - 22 (72nd to 50th)
Tom Herman - 22 (25th to 3rd)
Dave Clawson - 16 (67th to 51st)
Pat Narduzzi - 16 (46th to 30th)
Justin Fuente 16 (42nd to 26th)
David Shaw 15 (22nd to 7th)
Tom Allen 14 (62nd to 48th)
David Cutcliffe 13 (67th to 54th)
Larry Fedora 13 (41st to 28th)
Mark Stoops 12 (34th to 22nd)
Bobby Petrino 12 (45th to 33rd)
Chris Petersen 12 (38th to 26th)
Mark Dantonio 11 (53rd to 42nd)
Paul Johnson 10 (51st to 41st)
Mark Richt 10 (22nd to 12th)
James Franklin 10 (24th to 14th)
Matt Rhule 10 (40th to 30th)
Nick Saban 9 (12th to 3rd)
Dabo Swinney 9 (36th to 27th)
Dino Babers 8 (62nd to 54th)
Mike Leach 8 (58th to 50th)
Paul Chryst 6 (41st to 35th)
Kliff Kingsbury 6 (46th to 40th)
Clay Helton 6 (10th to 4th)
Bronco Mendenhall 5 (63rd to 58th)
Dana Holgerson 5 (35th to 30th)
Guz Malzahn 4 (10th to 6th)
Will Muschamp 4 (25th to 21st)
Kirby Smart 3 (6th to 3rd)
Urban Meyer 3 (5th to 2nd)
David Beatty 3 (73rd to 70th)
Matt Campbell 3 (55th to 52nd)
Kyle Wittingham 1 (57th to 56th)
Barry Odom 0 (43rd to 43rd)
Derek Mason -3 (46th to 49th)
Bill Snyder -6 (70th to 76th)
Mike MacIntyre -6 (68th to 74th)
Ed Orgeron -8 (7th to 15th)

 

[davecisar]

Great stuff
I did something similar with Nebraska's classes and yes it was about 7 spot improvement- historically

That would put NU in the 14 range- which most reasonable people would be pretty happy with-If NU got 16 or lower that would be great IMO

It all hinges on being able to deliver on improvement- so the vision is starting to materialize

Get to 6-7 regular season wins- 7-8 total and play more physical- probably doable
Tough to displace some of the teams ahead of NU- to get to 14 they would probably need to pass:
Tennessee
South Carolina
Oregon
UCLA
Washington
LSU

I dont see NU passing A&M or Florida

 

[activenumo]

Regardless of class size, location, conference, recruiting footprint, etc, only 5 active head coaches didn't do better than their transition class.

Frost finished with the 21st ranked class as his transition class. Any improvement brings them into the top 20. How high can he go for a first full cycle? Only 11 increased by over 20 spots. That isn't realistic for us. 15 increased between 10 to 19 spots. If Frost did 10 spots better it would be an 11th ranked class.

An improvement of 1 to 10 spots for Frost for his first full cycle is pretty realistic. Exciting times ahead!!!

 

[Harry Caray]

I actually don't think the 2019 class will be rated much higher than 2018. For one, it should be a fairly small class, unless we have a lot of attrition. The 2 kids we have so far are only 3-star guys, as are the other in-state kids we are recruiting. This class will be lighter on skill position players, as we took a ton of skill guys in the 2018 class. The 2019 class will likely be heavier on linemen that probably won't have a ton of stars, but will be guys the staff thinks they can develop.

I'm hoping by 2020 we will pull in a Top 10-15 class.

 

[bshirt73]

Current head coaches. Transition class vs full cycle. The majority of active head coaches did better with their first full cycle than their transition class. That isn't a surprising stat, but how consistent it is across the country regardless of location and conference gets your attention.

Chances are very good that Frost will bring in a recruiting class that will be in the top 20 for 2019 NSD. If that does happen, it will be +7 average spot improvement (or better) over Riley's classes. Meaning, significantly better talent would be coming to Nebraska.

Steve Addazio 35 (86th to 51st)
Jim Harbaugh 29 (37th to 8th)
Mike Gundy 29 (47th to 18th)
Lovie Smith 27 (73rd to 46th)
Justin Wilcox 27 (70th to 43rd)
Dave Doeren 25 (67th to 51st)
Pat Fitzgerald 24 (71st to 47th)
DJ Durkin 23 (41st to 18th)
Chris Ash 22 (64th to 22nd)
PJ Fleck - 22 (59th to 37th)
Jeff Brohm - 22 (72nd to 50th)
Tom Herman - 22 (25th to 3rd)
Dave Clawson - 16 (67th to 51st)
Pat Narduzzi - 16 (46th to 30th)
Justin Fuente 16 (42nd to 26th)
David Shaw 15 (22nd to 7th)
Tom Allen 14 (62nd to 48th)
David Cutcliffe 13 (67th to 54th)
Larry Fedora 13 (41st to 28th)
Mark Stoops 12 (34th to 22nd)
Bobby Petrino 12 (45th to 33rd)
Chris Petersen 12 (38th to 26th)
Mark Dantonio 11 (53rd to 42nd)
Paul Johnson 10 (51st to 41st)
Mark Richt 10 (22nd to 12th)
James Franklin 10 (24th to 14th)
Matt Rhule 10 (40th to 30th)
Nick Saban 9 (12th to 3rd)
Dabo Swinney 9 (36th to 27th)
Dino Babers 8 (62nd to 54th)
Mike Leach 8 (58th to 50th)
Paul Chryst 6 (41st to 35th)
Kliff Kingsbury 6 (46th to 40th)
Clay Helton 6 (10th to 4th)
Bronco Mendenhall 5 (63rd to 58th)
Dana Holgerson 5 (35th to 30th)
Guz Malzahn 4 (10th to 6th)
Will Muschamp 4 (25th to 21st)
Kirby Smart 3 (6th to 3rd)
Urban Meyer 3 (5th to 2nd)
David Beatty 3 (73rd to 70th)
Matt Campbell 3 (55th to 52nd)
Kyle Wittingham 1 (57th to 56th)
Barry Odom 0 (43rd to 43rd)
Derek Mason -3 (46th to 49th)
Bill Snyder -6 (70th to 76th)
Mike MacIntyre -6 (68th to 74th)
Ed Orgeron -8 (7th to 15th)

Wow.....excellent data. Thank you sir!

 

[inWV]

I actually don't think the 2019 class will be rated much higher than 2018. For one, it should be a fairly small class, unless we have a lot of attrition. The 2 kids we have so far are only 3-star guys, as are the other in-state kids we are recruiting. This class will be lighter on skill position players, as we took a ton of skill guys in the 2018 class. The 2019 class will likely have a lot of linemen that probably won't have a ton of stars, but will be guys the staff thinks they can develop.

I'm hoping by 2020 we will pull in a Top 10-15 class.

Next year's class will be small unless there is attrition from some younger ones.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I think I would reduce the sample size to only teams that were ranked 30th or higher in the transition year. The numbers are skewed otherwise.

That is like taking a group of kids that scored 0-50 on a re-test comparing their improvement with kids that scored 80-100. A kid that scores a 20 on the 1st test than a 50 on the second would have increased by 30 points but is still below passing, while the kid that scored 88 can only improve by 12 points. The lower scoring kids have significantly more room for growth.

I am not saying the results would necessarily be any different. It would just be a more accurate representation of the data.

 

[Huskercigar]

. The 2 kids we have so far are only 3-star guys, as are the other in-state kids we are recruiting.

I thought there were 4 instate 4 star recruits in next years class?

 

[Harry Caray]

I thought there were 4 instate 4 star recruits in next years class?

Rivals has them all as 3-star recruits. Henrich will likely be a 4-star eventually because of all of the offers he's getting. He's a 4-star on the other site, as is the other kid from Burke. However, neither of the Burke kids seems all that interested in Nebraska, so there's a good chance they end up elsewhere.

 

[prag_grenade]

Nebraska kids not interested in playing at Nebraska. My how things have changed.

 

[Harry Caray]

Nebraska kids not interested in playing at Nebraska. My how things have changed.

Henrich's family are Hawkeyes, his dad played tennis there. Hickman likes what Iowa's doing with Noah Fant. High school kids these days weren't alive the last time we even won a conference championship.

If we don't land them, it won't be for lack of trying, but as of now we have a lot of ground to make up with them.

 

[davecisar]

I think Hickman also has significant out of state ties

At the end of the day- Nebraska hasnt aggressively recruited locally
See Williams at Wisconsin, Fant at Iowa- both slow played

Pelini, Callahan and Riley failed to recruit well locally
And Callahan and Riley stunk it up on the field

BUT there are other things at work

30 years ago when I worked football camps in Nebraska- you rarely if EVER saw any kids wearing ANYTHING other than NU. When it was- it was that one loudmouth rebel without a cause kid looking for attention who would wear an OU hat- not unlike some posters on the board here.

Back in those days there werent as many teams playing on TV, NU was consistently very good or great, there was no internet and there was little branding or marketing of football programs. Now EVERYONE is on TV and when NU is on big time TV, they often times crap the bed.

Now when I work camps, we see mostly NU stuff but lots of other gear as well: Oregon, Texas, USC, Iowa, NDSU, Notre Dame, Bama, OU etc etc It's a bit of a different deal now and has been.
At one time Rimington had a "nothing but NU gear" policy- but I doubt even that is enforced these days- havent worked that one in 8-9 years.

 

[bshirt73]

Well, Clownahan & Riley were incredibly inept. Four losing seasons in seven years.....no wonder some kids want nothing to do with us anymore.