In his post game press conference Frost said that going for the field goal was “the right football decision.”
The following are the win probabilities associated with the 4th and 4 decision from the 14 yard line in Q4 (using most widely accepted wp% model).
Go for 1st down/TD: win 31 of 100 games
Go for FG: win 25 of 100 games
Coaches that understand win probability:
Belicheck
Sean Payton
Frank Reich
Brandin Staley
Jeff Brohm
etc..
Coaches that don’t understand win probability:
Frost
I want a coach that makes decisions that increase the likelihood of winning, not decrease.
The following are the win probabilities associated with the 4th and 4 decision from the 14 yard line in Q4 (using most widely accepted wp% model).
Go for 1st down/TD: win 31 of 100 games
Go for FG: win 25 of 100 games
Coaches that understand win probability:
Belicheck
Sean Payton
Frank Reich
Brandin Staley
Jeff Brohm
etc..
Coaches that don’t understand win probability:
Frost
I want a coach that makes decisions that increase the likelihood of winning, not decrease.
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