I know I am chiming in really late on this thread, but I really do think that Fred is close to getting this thing to the next level. I think the last two or three misses at the point guard position has really hurt with Woster, Ulis and Coleman. Don't know why they didn't have success, but any one of his 4 or 5 previous point guards could have guided this team to a tourney bid easily. (Cam Mack, Dalano Banton, Alonzo Verge or Sam Griesel) I would even throw in Trey McGowens or Kobe Webster could have handled the point like Lawrence did last year.
Now he is in that shitty position of having to replace a whole lot of points and get a lot more athletic. Hopefully Mast stick around to give him at least a little bit of something to build around. I do think Essegian will get better, but he needs to get this team a whole lot more athletic to be able to defend.