For any gamblers out there...
- Thread starter Tuco Salamanca
- Start date
With a 6 point spread against Northwestern I wonder what the +money is to win outright? I would guess $100 wins you $185 probably? I think Nebraska wins against Northwestern outright. JMO
Not a fan of point spreads beyond one game, but I would put a lot of money on the table for that Northwestern spread. We will be a much different team for the Iowa game compared to the start of the season.
Obviously there is a track record of success in Evanston, but I wouldn't put "a lot" on a road game with a team coming off 4 wins, a new QB, a new coaching staff, and new offensive and defensive systems where key personnel was recruited for a different one.
Yes, Nebraska may win that game, but games on the road (even with a pro-Husker crowd) are always dicey.
I certainly wouldn't want money on it before the game gets closer. There are so many variables like suspensions, injuries, weather, etc. that can impact games.
In 7 games since joining the Big Ten, Northwestern has won by 3 points, 2 points and 7 points in OT. All in Lincoln. That is a trend, regardless of variables.
They have won 3 of 7 games, all in Lincoln, only 1 by more than 3 points and that 1 win took overtime. When northwestern wins games in this series, the don’t win in Evanston and they don’t win by more than 3, unless they go to OT. The differnce in last year’s game being 6, instead of 7 was the coin flip in OT.
Betting big on games before the season starts isn't that smart. Injuries.
I do just fine thanks. Not sure why you would care though.
But since I have no idea, care to put a couple of bucks on these 3 games? I’ll take Nebraska and the points in all 3.
I don’t know you. All I’m saying is this thread obviously isn’t your forte. Hopefully you contribute in other ways.
And all I am saying is that Nebraska will cover those spreads in all 3 games and will beat Northwestern and Iowa outright.
OK, who will be our starting QB? You’re willing to bet your money not knowing the answer to that ( and many other unknowns) . That sounds pretty “blind” to me. Seriously, you don’t actually “do just fine “. I appreciate your persistence though.
Talk to me in the fall if you are still around.
Since 2013, Northwestern is 10-13 as a home favorite.
Same time frame, Iowa is 10-18-1 as a home favorite.
Also same time frame Nebraska is 8-3 as a road dog.
Scott Frost at UCF 5-2 as an underdog and 3-2 as a road dog.
So repeatedly insulting sometime when you don't know them IS contributing? Why not just say "Not sure how comfortable I would feel betting, given all the variables that come with a new coaching staff and systems."
One thing that is almost a given with any new coaching staff is that it takes nearly a full season for the new systems to become much more comfortable for the personnel. Frost has even said that it took them until the 2nd season to feel completely comfortable in their new systems.
By the time we play Iowa, I could see us operating with much more confidence. The Wisconsin and Northwestern games are both pretty early so I'm not sure if I would feel real comfortable betting on them. <---- Try this route. It's much more diplomatic.
We’ve been trained in social media and now all the way from the top that diplomacy and courtesy is overrated. Is this a surprise that people ass like ass faces online?
Thanks! My guy still doesn't have anything up. But 17 vs Wisky sounds really big.
Meh....there will always be turds that try to go after someone. Just ignore it.
If someone asks for it, I understand "giving 'em the business," but I didn't see Tuco or anyone else warranting multiple insults. Oh well, I guess we all act out at times. Especially if we aren't feeling well.
Tuco, also NU getting 5.5 game win total, i must have serious rose colored glasses. Do you think theses lines will move much before season kickoff (barring major injuries)?
Those early game lines will come off the board in a bit...then they will pop back on for a week or so and then be gone again. Those super early lines tend not to change a lot because they usually don't get tons of action.
Depends on how Thorson looks coming off the injury or how good their backup looks if he isn’t ready To start the season.
I think that iowa line changes. I think it’s closer to field goal by the time the game is played. In my opinion I think Iowa is a six or seven win team.
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First I don't bet lines before the season...However, if you see a line like plus 8 vs Iowa....I might be intrigued, because I could see that line moving up to 11 points in the direction of Nebraska if everything plays out great....even if the season is horrible, I doubt Iowa line would move to -10....just don't see Iowa having a line much higher than where it is at.
If you can get Nebraska plus 8 today and everything pans out and you get Iowa plus 3 in November, you have a guranteed win and good chance of winning both sides.
If you can get Nebraska plus 8 today and everything pans out and you get Iowa plus 3 in November, you have a guranteed win and good chance of winning both sides.
Both teams can have injuries so that is a wash. It could help you or hurt you. If the team you bet on has depth, you could be OK.
I think Vegas has it right. New systems, drastic changes being made. We saw with Diaco how poorly drastic changes can go. That said, there's another angle to look at here. Improvement in coaching.
There's a philosophy in athletics regarding coaching that I subscribe to-- the top 20% of coaching staffs help you immensely and the bottom 20% of coaching staffs hold you back. The middle 60% has it's good days and bad days but generally is just average. I think the dysfunction from last year on defense and the mere presence of Cav puts last year's staff in the bottom 20% of coaching efforts. Frost & Company have been near the top by all accounts so we can hope that continues and NU goes from outhouse to penthouse in terms of coaching performance.
That is something Vegas is not looking at thus the line value in these early lines.
Respectfully disagree. Sure injuries can happen but they can happen during the game that you already bet too. Betting spreads before the season starts can definitely provide opportunities for value. There may be significant variability between a spread before the season starts and the when the actual game occurs so if you assess that you are getting value, you should bet it as soon as you can. The bookies have the same risk you have and you may be much more in-tune with certain teams than the bookies. The books limit their exposure by limiting max bets, the number of bets you can make and moving lines quickly. I think ND/Michigan started off at ND -7 and went to ND -1 very quickly. It doesn't mean you are going to win the bet or the spread will be different come game time but the people who got Michigan at -7 definitely got value and that's what you should be looking for when gambling.
