There seem to be 4 categories of coaching success.
1. Osborne, Meyer, Coach K, Roy Williams level. Guys who are always in the hunt for the NC and no one outside the lunatic fringe would even think of firing these guys.The category 1 guys never get fired unless, like in the case of Barry Switzer or Joe Paterno, there is some form of scandal involved.
2. Pelini, Solich, Beamer, Richt level. Guys who almost always (from a record standpoint) have good respectable teams. Perhaps they lose most of the big games and get blown out once in a while, but they usually have a better record than most other coaches.The category 2 guys eventually get fired because the fans want more for their money than the same old thing every year. Problem is that many times, it's hard to find a competent replacement because coaches are reluctant to go to schools who fire category 2 coaches. One exception may be Kirby Smart, although I'm still not sold that he's that great a coach. He inherited a lot of talent but to his credit, he's brought in a lot too.
3. Mora, Rich Rod, Glen Mason level. Guys who are on average around .500. These guys last longer at the Purdue's and Indiana's of the world. Category 3 coaches are ones who AD's think may become category 2 coaches but never pan out and their tenures are usually short.
4. Mike Riley, Charlie Weiss. Guys who are nice and professional but rarely have a winning record of any substance. These guys sometimes get blue blood jobs only to get fired in a few years.
We at Nebraska have a crappy record replacing Category 2 coaches as Callahan and Riley demonstrate. The problem is that it's really hard to hire a potential Category 1 coach on the heals of firing a Category 2 coach. This is why it's such a tasty conspiracy to think that Eichorst and Riley might have been part of a master plan to get the program to a level where a possible Category 1 coach would be willing to step in. Frost said it himself, that if Eichorst had offered him the job in 2014, he would have said no.
Translate this to the Tim Miles situation. While many are not happy, there is no question that the team and the program is better now than when he took over. But he's in the Solich/Pelini situation where he can't win a championship, but getting a new coach at a higher level to replace a 22-11 coach (considering where we were when Miles was hired) is going to be quite difficult.
If Moos can break the cycle and pull off a big hire, it will be an accomplishment bigger than getting SF. If he can, that's great. But the last thing that I want to see is the disruption of a coaching change for the sake of change that gets us an equal or worse coach than Miles, only to need to repeat the process after a few years.
1. Osborne, Meyer, Coach K, Roy Williams level. Guys who are always in the hunt for the NC and no one outside the lunatic fringe would even think of firing these guys.The category 1 guys never get fired unless, like in the case of Barry Switzer or Joe Paterno, there is some form of scandal involved.
2. Pelini, Solich, Beamer, Richt level. Guys who almost always (from a record standpoint) have good respectable teams. Perhaps they lose most of the big games and get blown out once in a while, but they usually have a better record than most other coaches.The category 2 guys eventually get fired because the fans want more for their money than the same old thing every year. Problem is that many times, it's hard to find a competent replacement because coaches are reluctant to go to schools who fire category 2 coaches. One exception may be Kirby Smart, although I'm still not sold that he's that great a coach. He inherited a lot of talent but to his credit, he's brought in a lot too.
3. Mora, Rich Rod, Glen Mason level. Guys who are on average around .500. These guys last longer at the Purdue's and Indiana's of the world. Category 3 coaches are ones who AD's think may become category 2 coaches but never pan out and their tenures are usually short.
4. Mike Riley, Charlie Weiss. Guys who are nice and professional but rarely have a winning record of any substance. These guys sometimes get blue blood jobs only to get fired in a few years.
We at Nebraska have a crappy record replacing Category 2 coaches as Callahan and Riley demonstrate. The problem is that it's really hard to hire a potential Category 1 coach on the heals of firing a Category 2 coach. This is why it's such a tasty conspiracy to think that Eichorst and Riley might have been part of a master plan to get the program to a level where a possible Category 1 coach would be willing to step in. Frost said it himself, that if Eichorst had offered him the job in 2014, he would have said no.
Translate this to the Tim Miles situation. While many are not happy, there is no question that the team and the program is better now than when he took over. But he's in the Solich/Pelini situation where he can't win a championship, but getting a new coach at a higher level to replace a 22-11 coach (considering where we were when Miles was hired) is going to be quite difficult.
If Moos can break the cycle and pull off a big hire, it will be an accomplishment bigger than getting SF. If he can, that's great. But the last thing that I want to see is the disruption of a coaching change for the sake of change that gets us an equal or worse coach than Miles, only to need to repeat the process after a few years.
