Calling my shot

[k9_r]

This is the current top eight teams with their current record and remaining conference games.
I've added my predictions for their final stretch [in brackets] and the end results. And I've ordered them as I think we all will finish. Stupid tie leaves us a half game behind.
PS: adjust your zoom to keep everything on it's own line.

MARYLAND (12-3) - @IN, @IL, NW -------------- [7-2] --- 19-5 (.792)
NEBRASKA (7-4-1) - @OSU, RU, MSU, @PSU -- [11-1] -- 18-5-1 (.771)
MINNESOTA (8-4) - IL, @PSU, PUR -------------- [7-2] --- 15-6 (.714)
MICHIGAN (7-5) - @RU, OSU @PUR, MSU ------ [8-4] --- 15-9 (.625)
INDIANA (8-6-1) - MD, PSU,@OSU -------------- [6-3] --- 14-9-1 (.604)
IOWA (6-6) - PSU, @MSU, OSU, @IL ------------ [8-4] --- 14-10 (.583)
PURDUE (9-6) - NW, MI, @MN ------------------- [4-5] --- 13-11 (.542)
MSU (5-7) - @NW, IA, @NU, MI ------------------ [4-8] --- 9-15 (.375)

These five have bad records and tough remaining schedules. They're all out of the conference tourney as I see it.
ILLINOIS - @MN, MD, @RU, IA
NW - MSU, @PUR, @MD, RU
OSU - NU, @MI, @IA, IN
RUTGERS - MI, @NU, IL, @NW
PENN ST - @IA, MN, @IN, NU

Before I wear the 'Homer Hat' it's fair to point out that we have the softest schedule of all the contenders. So, where am I wrong?

 

[RobsterMobster]

You're not wrong is the thing. The issue is which Husker team shows up on what days? Truthfully, with our pitching staff and our hitters facing their pitching staffs we shouldn't even lose on a bad day.

But if we show up like we did against Creighton last week we can easily lose. I see you have us going 11-1 and a half game out. I guess that means we have to go 12-0 to finish a half game up.

 

[k9_r]

You're not wrong is the thing. The issue is which Husker team shows up on what days? Truthfully, with our pitching staff and our hitters facing their pitching staffs we shouldn't even lose on a bad day.

But if we show up like we did against Creighton last week we can easily lose. I see you have us going 11-1 and a half game out. I guess that means we have to go 12-0 to finish a half game up.

Any loss we take will be a bad loss b/c we're just better than these teams.

But b/c we are Nebraska and can't get out of our own way... guess we'll just have to suffer the bad. And hope for the best. Is a 15 game win streak asking too much? Against these putzes?

 

[RobsterMobster]

Any loss we take will be a bad loss b/c we're just better than these teams.

But b/c we are Nebraska and can't get out of our own way... guess we'll just have to suffer the bad. And hope for the best. Is a 15 game win streak asking too much? Against these putzes?

Normal logic says we slip up, but I'm going to trust my instinct on this one, saddle up partner, it's time for a 15 game winning streak.

 

[coolonetoo]

Stupid tie leaves us a half game behind.

No, one more loss to Iowa than was acceptable keeps us out of first place.

 

[RobsterMobster]

No, one more loss to Iowa than was acceptable keeps us out of first place.

I still remember that line drive hit right to the 2nd baseman playing in and Meyers running into the tag. That literally was the difference in the series.

 

[coolonetoo]

This is the current top eight teams with their current record and remaining conference games.
I've added my predictions for their final stretch [in brackets] and the end results. And I've ordered them as I think we all will finish. Stupid tie leaves us a half game behind.
PS: adjust your zoom to keep everything on it's own line.

MARYLAND (12-3) - @IN, @IL, NW -------------- [7-2] --- 19-5 (.792)
NEBRASKA (7-4-1) - @OSU, RU, MSU, @PSU -- [11-1] -- 18-5-1 (.771)
MINNESOTA (8-4) - IL, @PSU, PUR -------------- [7-2] --- 15-6 (.714)
MICHIGAN (7-5) - @RU, OSU @PUR, MSU ------ [8-4] --- 15-9 (.625)
INDIANA (8-6-1) - MD, PSU,@OSU -------------- [6-3] --- 14-9-1 (.604)
IOWA (6-6) - PSU, @MSU, OSU, @IL ------------ [8-4] --- 14-10 (.583)
PURDUE (9-6) - NW, MI, @MN ------------------- [4-5] --- 13-11 (.542)
MSU (5-7) - @NW, IA, @NU, MI ------------------ [4-8] --- 9-15 (.375)

These five have bad records and tough remaining schedules. They're all out of the conference tourney as I see it.
ILLINOIS - @MN, MD, @RU, IA
NW - MSU, @PUR, @MD, RU
OSU - NU, @MI, @IA, IN
RUTGERS - MI, @NU, IL, @NW
PENN ST - @IA, MN, @IN, NU

Before I wear the 'Homer Hat' it's fair to point out that we have the softest schedule of all the contenders. So, where am I wrong?

I think this is pretty spot on. I was looking at the schedules on Sunday and felt Nebraska should finish no worse than second but it might be tough to catch Maryland. Your efforts confirm that expectation.

I badly want to win the league but no matter how that shakes out I'll be feeling reeeeally good if the Huskers have 18 conference wins at the end of the regular season.

 

[huskerfan_12_05]

The homer in me wants to say we can find someway to get ahead of Maryland in the last few series but I just don't see Maryland losing enough & I feel like we'll just slip up somewhere along the way against teams we shouldn't.... Still think we do finish 2nd in the league

 

[bigredrl]

This is the current top eight teams with their current record and remaining conference games.
I've added my predictions for their final stretch [in brackets] and the end results. And I've ordered them as I think we all will finish. Stupid tie leaves us a half game behind.
PS: adjust your zoom to keep everything on it's own line.

MARYLAND (12-3) - @IN, @IL, NW -------------- [7-2] --- 19-5 (.792)
NEBRASKA (7-4-1) - @OSU, RU, MSU, @PSU -- [11-1] -- 18-5-1 (.771)
MINNESOTA (8-4) - IL, @PSU, PUR -------------- [7-2] --- 15-6 (.714)
MICHIGAN (7-5) - @RU, OSU @PUR, MSU ------ [8-4] --- 15-9 (.625)
INDIANA (8-6-1) - MD, PSU,@OSU -------------- [6-3] --- 14-9-1 (.604)
IOWA (6-6) - PSU, @MSU, OSU, @IL ------------ [8-4] --- 14-10 (.583)
PURDUE (9-6) - NW, MI, @MN ------------------- [4-5] --- 13-11 (.542)
MSU (5-7) - @NW, IA, @NU, MI ------------------ [4-8] --- 9-15 (.375)

These five have bad records and tough remaining schedules. They're all out of the conference tourney as I see it.
ILLINOIS - @MN, MD, @RU, IA
NW - MSU, @PUR, @MD, RU
OSU - NU, @MI, @IA, IN
RUTGERS - MI, @NU, IL, @NW
PENN ST - @IA, MN, @IN, NU

Before I wear the 'Homer Hat' it's fair to point out that we have the softest schedule of all the contenders. So, where am I wrong?

Its an opinion so hard to argue its "wrong", but if we are debating the subject ..... I would have to say predicting this team to sweep 3 of its 4 remaining series is extremely optimistic. We've swept 1 series all year that was 3 games or > vs. the same team. While its possible to do what you suggest, past performance would indicate its not very probable.

I'm guessing we sweep 1 series and probably go 2-1 in the remaining for a 9-3 finish.

 

[k9_r]

Its an opinion so hard to argue its "wrong", but if we are debating the subject ..... I would have to say predicting this team to sweep 3 of its 4 remaining series is extremely optimistic. We've swept 1 series all year that was 3 games or > vs. the same team. While its possible to do what you suggest, past performance would indicate its not very probable.

I'm guessing we sweep 1 series and probably go 2-1 in the remaining for a 9-3 finish.

Not disagreeing with you at all b/c we throw a turd all too often. But while I plead guilty to optimism I don't think it is extreme in this case.

Three of our remaining opponents are 44-72 (.379) combined. They're even worse in conference, 10-23 (.303). These teams aren't any good.

I like to temper expectations with reality but reality is a large thing and includes the fact that those teams can't win very often. If I were them, reality would dictate that I'd likely not win a game against Nebraska.

And you're right, just an opinion. Not baseless, though, and I don't think it's extreme given the total reality.

 

[k9_r]

Its an opinion so hard to argue its "wrong", but if we are debating the subject ..... I would have to say predicting this team to sweep 3 of its 4 remaining series is extremely optimistic. We've swept 1 series all year that was 3 games or > vs. the same team. While its possible to do what you suggest, past performance would indicate its not very probable.

I'm guessing we sweep 1 series and probably go 2-1 in the remaining for a 9-3 finish.

BTW, your expectation of three losses is in line with Warren Nolan's prediction model. But he is also including our upcoming game with Creighton.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/predictedrpi

 

[bleedhuskerred]

Tommy LaSorda said it regarding MLB so, not quite the same but, rings true for this Husker team... "No matter how good you are you will lose 1/3 of your games and no matter how bad you are you will win 1/3 of your games. It's the 1/3 in the middle that makes the difference."

I do like the way you think K9_r and I sure hope you are right.

 

[k9_r]

Tommy LaSorda said it regarding MLB so, not quite the same but, rings true for this Husker team... "No matter how good you are you will lose 1/3 of your games and no matter how bad you are you will win 1/3 of your games. It's the 1/3 in the middle that makes the difference."

I do like the way you think K9_r and I sure hope you are right.

Like you said - pro ball. Actually, it works out like that in good college conferences too. ACC, SEC, PAC12, their coaches all say, "Win your home series and don't get swept on the road." That's a winning formula for them.

 

[bigredrl]

Not disagreeing with you at all b/c we throw a turd all too often. But while I plead guilty to optimism I don't think it is extreme in this case.

Three of our remaining opponents are 44-72 (.379) combined. They're even worse in conference, 10-23 (.303). These teams aren't any good.

I like to temper expectations with reality but reality is a large thing and includes the fact that those teams can't win very often. If I were them, reality would dictate that I'd likely not win a game against Nebraska.

And you're right, just an opinion. Not baseless, though, and I don't think it's extreme given the total reality.

Completely understand your logic and appreciate the data to support. Just trying to find a balance between what should happen and what happens in baseball. Every time we lose a game and/or series many think we shouldn't the main board posts start to pile up about firing this coach, or the entire staff and the baseball purists (many of whom post over here as well) defend the team and staff by saying "those people don't understand baseball". To some degree, I do agree that they don't. Its damn hard to sweep series, no matter who the opponent is.

Just seems to me that by predicting a sweep in 3/4 remaining series because of inferior opponents we're maybe talking out of both sides of our mouth.

 

[donahues17]

I would love to see them finish out with an 11-1 record. But there is no way in hell that happens. This team definitely plays to the level of their competition. Ya never know with how mental this game is and how inconsistent our pitching has been (aside from Sunday). Saturday is almost a guaranteed loss when Burkamper has started lately. Nit sure why they havent tried someone else on Saturday yet. I can see Rutgers tsking 2 from us as they are inconsistent as well. Then most likely lose 1 in each other series. I think I think I would feel better if we were finishing with the top teams in the league.

 

[k9_r]

Completely understand your logic and appreciate the data to support. Just trying to find a balance between what should happen and what happens in baseball. Every time we lose a game and/or series many think we shouldn't the main board posts start to pile up about firing this coach, or the entire staff and the baseball purists (many of whom post over here as well) defend the team and staff by saying "those people don't understand baseball". To some degree, I do agree that they don't. Its damn hard to sweep series, no matter who the opponent is.

Just seems to me that by predicting a sweep in 3/4 remaining series because of inferior opponents we're maybe talking out of both sides of our mouth.

You know, in time I just get so discouraged at our inability to thrash a woe begotten foe. So here we are, facing three very inept opponents and trying to rescue our stumbling season. It's simply time to get out of our own way and take care of business.

While we have fumbled and bumbled our way thru four losses to Western Carolina and Iowa, we have also played brilliantly in wins over Arizona, Indiana and Maryland.

We can't win these next games just by showing up but we can win them simply by stepping up to the plate and do work.

Thirteen games left and they are the thirteen softest opponents in one month any Erstad team has ever drawn. Just get it done.

 

[RobsterMobster]

You know, in time I just get so discouraged at our inability to thrash a woe begotten foe. So here we are, facing three very inept opponents and trying to rescue our stumbling season. It's simply time to get out of our own way and take care of business.

While we have fumbled and bumbled our way thru four losses to Western Carolina and Iowa, we have also played brilliantly in wins over Arizona, Indiana and Maryland.

We can't win these next games just by showing up but we can win them simply by stepping up to the plate and do work.

Thirteen games left and they are the thirteen softest opponents in one month any Erstad team has ever drawn. Just get it done.

I think that is where we are all at as fans, we know what we have left on the schedule, we know what needs to be done to win a championship, but what we don't know is if this team will do what they are capable of based on past results.