Seven tiers of CFB underachievers, from playoff no-shows to biggest disappointments
Why do certain programs consistently fall short of their potential? We took the biggest underachievers, by data and results, and broke down their lack of success.
Breaking down College Football's Biggest Underachievers
by Bill Connelly and Adam Rittenberg, ESPN
The point of underachiever tiers isn't to shovel shame upon unsuspecting college football teams or their fans, but instead to focus on the why.
Why do certain programs, despite baked-in advantages, consistently fall short of their potential? For some, the shortcomings occur at the very top of the sport. Georgia, after all, was the inspiration for the first edition of underachiever tiers, as the Bulldogs went 41 years between national championships before breaking through in 2021. We're taking a different approach to the tiers this season. Teams are grouped in seven different categories, with the understanding that not all are capable of competing nationally, or even consistently for conference championships. The reasons for underachievement also vary.
For the first time, we're incorporating an expected SP+ rating based on recent recruiting rankings, long-term history, stadium capacity and, where available, coach and coaching staff salaries. Comparing this number to each team's actual five-year SP+ average gives us a unique look at who is performing at a level sufficient to expectations. We focused on team data from the past five seasons, but also took long-term snapshots to examine trends and identify why they've fallen short.
No teams are exempt, although those that have won recent national titles do not appear below.
Let's get started.
College Football Playoff No-Shows Tier
Teams that have never made the College Football Playoff
Penn State
Florida
USC
Miami (FL)
Texas A&M
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Biggest Underachievers Tier (per SP+)
Nebraska
Arkansas
NEBRASKA
Last conference or national title: 1999 conference (Big 12); 1997 (national)
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 19th in expected five-year average; 60th in actual five-year average. College football has changed drastically since Nebraska was lording over the sport in the 1990s, but it hasn't changed so much that one can justify seven straight losing seasons. The Huskers haven't finished in the SP+ top 50 since 2016 and haven't been seen in the top 20 since 2014. Inexcusable.
Assets: Massive and loyal fan base; national championship tradition; top-notch facilities
Why and where they're underachieving: What Nebraska accomplished from 1963 to 2001, despite being in the 37th-most populous state -- five national titles, 22 conference titles and 470 wins, 14 more than any other program -- remains one of the more incredible feats in American sporting history. Nebraska might never approach the same level of prolonged national success, but it certainly can do better than what we've seen during a dreadful last decade. The Huskers haven't made a bowl game since 2016 and last posted an AP Top 25 finish in 2012. Their time in the Big Ten has been marred by coaching and administrative change, which continued in March when athletic director Trev Alberts, an All-America linebacker for the Huskers, left his alma mater for the same job at Texas A&M.
Since 2012, Nebraska has had four athletic directors and four football coaches, including Scott Frost, whose ballyhooed return to his home state ended with disastrous results (16-31). A program celebrated for its surgical dominance has become known more for one-score losses. Nebraska also has struggled to reshape its identity and expectations in the Big Ten.
"Iowa's more of a model at Nebraska than Ohio State is, with where you're located and where you're recruiting," a former Nebraska official said. "You've got to be realistic. At some point, you've got to not be delusional."
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Basketball or Bust Tier
This tier features schools primarily known for their basketball programs, but should expect more than what they're getting on the football side.
UCLA
North Carolina
Maryland
Arizona
Indiana
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Never or Rarely Won Tier
North Carolina State
Arizona State
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Financially Challenged Tier
Teams appear here that have not reached their potential primarily because of the same reason: Money.
Colorado
Georgia Tech
California
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Should Have Done More Tier
Teams here are capable of consistently competing for national titles but have endured extended droughts.
Ohio State
Florida State
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On-Notice Tier
Teams in this tier haven't quite reached full-fledged underachiever status, but they need to deliver better results soon, especially with the expanded playoff.
Tennessee
Auburn
