MINNESOTA (-5.5) at UCLA
Minnesota leads the nation in pass defense, but that's because the teams with a decent attack -- Michigan and USC -- ran. UCLA can't do that. The Bruins have yet to hit the 100-yard mark, but that's partly because it hasn't had time to commit to the ground. They have yet to record 30 carries in a game, and that's almost everything here. When it comes to that 0-3 stat for Minnesota when the run D allowed 100 yards, those were the three times the other side ran at least 40 times. UCLA won't run 40 times. Minnesota 23, UCLA 17
NORTHWESTERN at MARYLAND (-10)
Don't expect a lot of points, but stick with it. This should be a close game to the very end. Northwestern has a way of sometimes hanging around long enough to do something great, but it'll need Maryland to royally gack this away and it's not happening. The Terps will never feel comfortable, but they'll forge ahead in the second quarter and the Wildcats won't be able to grind their way to get over the top. Maryland 26, Northwestern 20
OHIO STATE (-3.5) at OREGON
Ohio State is too loaded. All across the board the Buckeyes have NFL parts, explosion, power, coaching staff, and ........pressure. This might be Ryan Day's best team yet, but it has yet to play a down of drama. Oregon is about to change that. The Ducks will explode out of the gate, the Oregon crowd will be insane, and then everything will settle in. Ohio State will go on two scoring drives early in the second half, the defense will clamp down hard with more pressure on Dillon Gabriel, and America will finally wake up and realize just how far ahead of everyone else Ohio State is. (And the polls will still keep buying Texas at No. 1). Ohio State 34, Oregon 20
PENN STATE (-5.5) at USC
Has Penn State been stress-tested yet? The West Virginia offense is okay, and Illinois has a decent passing game, and Bowling Green made it close with the Nittany Lions were a bit underwhelming, but the team hasn't been pushed hard yet. USC will get past the rough performance against Minnesota and be great for about three quarters, and then the Penn State defense and offensive front will take over to push through for its strongest win of the season. Penn State 28, USC 23
PURDUE at ILLINOIS (-19.5)
Illinois isn't explosive, and it doesn't do much of anything flashy, but it doesn't turn the ball over enough to matter and it should be steady enough to grind out an easier win that it might seem after a first half fight. Purdue will rise up enough to keep this close, but won't move the ball well enough to push through. Illinois 37, Purdue 16
WASHINGTON at IOWA (-2.5)
Everyone will come into this raving about Iowa's defense and style of play at home, but Washington's D is even better. But can the team produce on the road? What went wrong in the loss to Rutgers? The run defense got pounded on for 5.6 yards per carry and 184 yards -- the most allowed by the Huskies all year. Iowa ran for 241 yards or more in their three wins, and is 0-2 when they run for fewer. Washington has yet to allow more than 185 yards on the ground in any of its six games. Washington 21, Iowa 20
WISCONSIN at RUTGERS (-2.5)
Rutgers will be terrific at home. Wisconsin might have turned a corner -- the team just needed something to kickstart things -- but the Scarlet Knights will be solid on third downs, won't get hit with painful penalties, and they'll grind out an ugly win. 5-1 will look beautiful thought. Rutgers 20, Wisconsin 17
