B1G over/under totals
- Thread starter scarletred
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8.5 sounds about right. I thought the number they put out on the Bears last year was insane, I claimed the under was a can't-miss, but turns out they knew what they were doing.
That's about how I see things shaking this year. Michigan is the favorite in the East and winner of Iowa/Nebraska in the West.
Just note: This is a regular season proposition, so if you like the over, you're basically saying this team will exceed last year's performance by 4 games, with mostly the same talent minus a couple NFL D-linemen.
Now granted, obviously you take into account development, getting used to a new system, etc. but it is rare to see a team make a 4 game jump without something drastic happening, e.g., a returning player from an injury, a new QB, etc.
Just note: This is a regular season proposition, so if you like the over, you're basically saying this team will exceed last year's performance by 4 games, with mostly the same talent minus a couple NFL D-linemen.
Now granted, obviously you take into account development, getting used to a new system, etc. but it is rare to see a team make a 4 game jump without something drastic happening, e.g., a returning player from an injury, a new QB, etc.
Fwiw...I read it as them having tOSU as the favorite in the East. I haven't looked up the line for the game but I'm guessing they have tOSU losing to OU early while their youth is still getting their feet wet. I would be quite surprised if they have anyone beating Michigan OOC. Give tOSU Michigan's schedule and the o/v is probably 10.5.
Good point. I didn't think about non-conference in that scenario. I've seen some publications call for Michigan to win the East, but could easily come down to the annual game between the programs. I don't see Michigan State holding as steady without Cook, but you never know.
I'd love nothing more than Nebraska to match up against Michigan in the B1G Championship this year - primarily because I think we finally have a coach who won't get completely overwhelmed by the opposing coaching staff in a big game.
Considering the way we lost games last year under a new staff going from 5 to 8.5 isn't all that far fitched with what we have coming back, mainly a returning 3 year starter at QB best receivers in the conference and all of our LB'ers and DB's.
I was looking at the espn FPI for NU. Of course this is just a computer program spitting out numbers, but it does provide some guidance.We are favored in all but 2 games, OhSU and Wisconsin. Wisconsin is close to a coin flip, as well as the Iowa game. Quite a few of the other games we would be considered strong favorites. Vegas is going with 8.5 o/u. Seems reasonable enough.
So an 8 or 9 win season I would call achieving, 7 or less wins underachieving, 10 or more wins overachieving.
So an 8 or 9 win season I would call achieving, 7 or less wins underachieving, 10 or more wins overachieving.
indiana over
maryland over
michigan over
osu over
msu over
penn state over
rutgers under
illinois under
iowa over
minnesota push
nebraska over
nw over
purdue under
wisconsin under
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From South Point in Vegas
East
Indiana 4.5 Over
Maryland 4.5 Under
Michigan 10 Push
MSU 7.5 Over
Ohio St 9.5 Over
Penn St 6.5 Under
Rutgers 4.5 Under
West
Illinois 4.5 Over
Iowa 8.5 Over
Minnesota 6 Under
Nebraska 8.5 Under
NW 6.5 Over
Purdue 4.5 Under
Wisconsin 7 Push
East
Indiana 4.5 Over
Maryland 4.5 Under
Michigan 10 Push
MSU 7.5 Over
Ohio St 9.5 Over
Penn St 6.5 Under
Rutgers 4.5 Under
West
Illinois 4.5 Over
Iowa 8.5 Over
Minnesota 6 Under
Nebraska 8.5 Under
NW 6.5 Over
Purdue 4.5 Under
Wisconsin 7 Push
I believe they have played 4 games ( HCMR vs HCJH ); and HCMR had the lesser ranked team and I would argue we have an improved staff. Even with that; HCMR was 2-2 vs the MI coach if memory serves. if not , oh well - we beat UCLA, these guys can coach.
I know the off season everything is wonderful and every team has a bright outlook - I think we are very capable of winning the west and a bunch of games but my fear is how we lost games last year to inferior teams. Is everyone forgetting the brain farts by this staff that cost us in the Illinois game or the Purdue game? last year did not need to happen the way it came about.
I hope this staff learned some things from last year and have gotten some of the clock management issues under control. I also hope this defense can get a better because without those things happening this year could be gruesome
I hope this staff learned some things from last year and have gotten some of the clock management issues under control. I also hope this defense can get a better because without those things happening this year could be gruesome
Not quite the story:
1) JH takes over a 1 win Stanford team and loses as expected to Oregon State that finished ranked. I believe this was at the end of Rileys fist full cycle when his first full recruiting class were seniors.
2) coming off a 4 win season (with his 1st class of a major rebuild now freshman) Harbaugh upsets a ranked Oregon State.
3) the one year that both squads end up with similar records. Riley takes this one at home
4) 1st year Harbaugh has one of his classes as upperclassmen (true juniors). Stanford throttles Oregon State 38-0.
So yes it ended up 2-2 but when JH came in to the P10/12 he took over one of the worst programs in the country while Riley had his program in order and at its peak as a top 25 team. By the end of it JH was blowing out Oregon State...with that said because of the circumstances I don't think it is a large enough sample to say much of anything
It will be an interesting B1G season. There is a lot of love returning for the B1G 2.
Every team has plenty of questions. Michigan State has been as good as Ohio State, since 2010, in Big Ten play.
MSU and OSU are two of six programs winning 80% of their games.
Iowa and Michigan each have not shared a piece of the Big Ten title, since 2004. Michigan won head to head.
MSU, OSU and UW are the only three teams with B1G titles, since Nebraska joined in 2011.
The Cornhuskers have played for a title, like Iowa, last year, but neither Iowa, Michigan and Nebraska shown much consistent success.
Schedule for Wisconsin creates tall, tall order for the Badgers.
Northwestern is coming off 10-3 season. However, not yet in the division title race discussion.
Penn State wins 7 games for fourth straight season?
It will be an interesting season. B1G 2 right now is MSU and OSU.
Will it remain?
Every team has plenty of questions. Michigan State has been as good as Ohio State, since 2010, in Big Ten play.
MSU and OSU are two of six programs winning 80% of their games.
Iowa and Michigan each have not shared a piece of the Big Ten title, since 2004. Michigan won head to head.
MSU, OSU and UW are the only three teams with B1G titles, since Nebraska joined in 2011.
The Cornhuskers have played for a title, like Iowa, last year, but neither Iowa, Michigan and Nebraska shown much consistent success.
Schedule for Wisconsin creates tall, tall order for the Badgers.
Northwestern is coming off 10-3 season. However, not yet in the division title race discussion.
Penn State wins 7 games for fourth straight season?
It will be an interesting season. B1G 2 right now is MSU and OSU.
Will it remain?
Agreed, I appreciate the research you do in your posts and just reading them in general. So they sort of quickly reversed situations? Do you recall how that overlayed with the OSU qb situation? I do believe Stanford had disorganized talent. Urban and now at Mi, H ; these guys show coaching makes a difference and quickly when talent is there - no doubt they can recruit. ... I was reaching to remember the 2--2 record. I do like rose-colored glasses though; I think beating UCLA is big; talent is there for UCLA - do I think the Mi and tOSU coaches would have done more with it = for sure. ... Whatever I might think about HCMR; I feel he is building a great staff and situation. That said, its not easy - I think tOSU got screwed to appease OKLA and the Texas 12: I think that Urban would have schooled Alabama again: SEC was glad to keep tOSU out; imo we need an 8 team playoff. I am seeing MI getting preseason ranks above tOSU ; I realize the graduations, but thats respect.
But...bear in mind that we lost 4 games on the last play of the game, in rather flukey circumstances.
One thing you left out though...Stanford had more talent than Oregon State when Harbaugh came in. And Stanford's recruiting was dramatically better than Oregon State's during Harbaugh's tenure. Almost assuredly because Stanford has/had better facilities to recruit to. And most certainly more history to recruit to.
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I'm asking honestly...is my sarcasm detector not working today because I'm not sure if you are being serious or not:
1) When Riley came to Oregon State they were coming off an 8-4 season and bowl win under Dennis Erickson. When Harbaugh came to Stanford they coming off a 1-11 season.
2) interestingly enough, in his first full recruiting cycle (2008) Harbaugh went neck and neck with Riley ending up with the 50th and 52th classes respectively. In their second full year, head to head, Harbaugh pulled away landing the 20th ranked class compared to Riley's class at 54. So should I assume that Stanford built new facilities that year or that it had something to do with the coaches?
Ok...after typing that out I'm guessing you were being sarcastic. With that said...for Riley at NU it is and will be all about fit. I'm sure people make excuses of why he didn't do more at Oregon State but the truth is that he does have more to work with at NU...a lot more.
I stated very simply that Harbaugh had better talent than Oregon State from previous classes already on campus. I also stated that Stanford has always had better facilities than Oregon State.
Maybe It was a case of Harbaugh and his coaches not using their facilities to their best advantage in their first year. Or maybe they were better able to sell their program after seeing some improvement after their first year. Maybe they just became better salesmen after their first year, but Stanford's facilities have always been better than Oregon State's.
So you really think the 1-11 Stanford team JH inherited had more talent on it than the 10 win top 25 team Riley was bringing back? Do you really believe that or are you just making stuff up and hoping nobody checks?
Well this is interesting @Husker Du ...thanks to my buddy Google it appears that Stanford redid their stadium in 2006 and opened up their brand new football complex in 2013...claiming both needed major upgrades
On paper, Stanford had more elite recruits in their program vs Oregon State when Harbaugh arrived. Look it up. And the talent gap increased more as Harbaugh got further into his tenure.
Your buddy Google obviously didn't do a very thorough search, because Stanford's facilities were still better than Oregon State's prior to 2006. Stanford's stadium had a capacity of over 85,000 until 2005, vs Oregon State's being around 45,000. Even if Stanford's stadium was older, it was still huge vs Oregon State's.
Honestly, which institution do you think had more dough to spend on facilities? That should have been fairly evident upfront. Oregon State was one of the lowest funded athletic departments in the PAC-10, and still is.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pac-12_Conference
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How about getting back the the OP and a couple of you make some predictions instead of bickering.
Why don't you look it up for me if you are going to make that claim...don't just post class rankings...Stanford had 3 coaches in three years (the guy before Harbaugh lasted two years)...don't you think there was just a little bit of attrition? And we are talking Stanford...you might want to look at which players made it through their first year.
Dude...Stanford went 1-11 in 2006...Oregon State went 10-4...in the same conference...coaching alone doesn't explain that...really think about it.
Michigan is and has been one of the richest ADs in the country...we have proven it in the last 15 years as we had to spend 100s of millions in upgrades just to catch up on facilities because we had a couple ADs that lacked vision and fell behind in the arms race. It happens....maybe you should learn about specific situations rather then just guess.
And for starters maybe you should start using "than" instead of "then" when appropriate. Go do some reading, and "then" you can come back and tell me you were wrong.
Lol...when you can't combat an internet argument go after grammar...if that doesn't work then call the person names...go for it kiddo
Don't be lazy...do the work. Stanford had a higher star average in 3 of the 4 recruiting classes from 2004 - 07. They also had 12 4-stars vs 5 4-stars in that same period.
On the attrition topic, if you had a well known NFL QB and college coach coming in that had two 11-1 seasons in a row at San Diego, after having 3 coaches in the previous few years, would you bail out? Maybe so, but if I were one of the players, I would see who this new coach is that had that type of success.
They had 3 coaches in 3 years...they went 1-11...they hired a FCS coach...think buddy
Can't combat? The fact that I have to inform you that you're getting owned should tell you that you are fairly oblivious. Now get to reading and hurry back and tell me you were wrong. And if you want me to take you seriously, please check your syntax.
Reading what? I'm pretty sure I'm more highly educated than you (Michigan undergrad, Columbia grad)...but who cares...what matters is the basis of the argument. Talented teams don't go 1-11 in the P10/12. Teams that win 10 games in the P10/12 don't lack talent. Think about it and then get back to me on the logic.
Think what? That they had crummy coaches for 3 years, and then hired a guy that had just gone 11-1 twice in a row at an FCS school? OooooK. Done. Now what should I do? Tell you again that if I'm a player that just went through 3 tumultuous seasons under crummy coaches, that I would probably stay if I had a successful NFL QB and FCS coach coming in. OooooK. Also done.
Obviously that education hasn't served you very well, silly boy. You ever heard of the University of Miami circa Al Golden? How about University of Texas, circa Charlie Strong? Or perhaps USC, circa Larry Smith, John Robinson, or Paul Hackett? How about Ohio State under Luke Fickell? Should I continue?
Don't come over here telling us how much better educated you are when you don't even know when to use "then" vs "than," and can't figure out that poor coaches can do terrible things to decent talent.
But trying to stay on point here...could they have gone through some attrition? Sure, but as I had said, Stanford's 4 classes were collectively more talented on paper than Oregon State's. If you were to say that it takes time to implement new offensive and defensive systems (at least half a season, and more like an entire season), I would be much more likely to agree with you.
At any rate, we have gotten a little off track here. Neither team's talent would ever be confused with an Ohio State or Texas, but our initial exchange was who had better talent. I said on paper Stanford had better talent, which they did. If you want to take the time to go back to each of the years that Riley and Harbaugh played, and determine the talent of the 2-deep, I'll be here when you complete your analysis. That's more time out of my schedule than I am willing to part with.
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What else would you be reading, but the Stanford recruiting classes the 5 years prior to Harbaugh??? I'm not going to hold your hand on this.
Look at those framed sheepskins that are perfectly aligned on your wall and tell yourself, these items provide me with the support with which I feel I can effectively embark on a research project. Now go and read, young man..
LOL. The genius is blindly throwing his "I'm more educated that you" defense of his post. I don't lord my education or IQ over anyone. It's kind of like throwing the "I'm a Christian" line instead of just letting your actions speak for themselves. He's an elitist all right.
It was particularly comical, coming on the heels of "the professor" confusing then and than. Maybe he is a Michigan grad, with a post-grad degree from Columbia. I don't think it's much of a stretch to assume that his degrees weren't in Language Arts though.
It was particularly comical, coming on the heels of "the professor" confusing then and than. Maybe he is a Michigan grad, with a post-grad degree from Columbia. I don't think it's much of a stretch to assume that his degrees weren't in Language Arts though.
You are still missing the point...do you really think it is about players waiting for the third coach to show up? Or maybe do you think the exodus happened when coach #2 was fired in two years..after an exodus after coach #1 got fired. And its not like they had highly recruited classes to start with...1-11
You don't get it...its sad really
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