I was a little bored and so I wanted to analyze our prospects of landing a 5* HIGH SCHOOL player in a given recruiting cycle. It's no secret that all the top talent is not close to Nebraska - but I wanted to try to see how frequently the top talent is in our backyard and where we might have our best shots to get a 5* player in a given year based on who we recruit against.
Step 1: Look at all Rivals 5* players over the past 13 years (2006-2018). Here's the average 5* players by state each year:
Florida 5.54
California 3.92
Texas 3.08
Georgia 2.62
Alabama 1.69
Louisiana 1.46
North Carolina 1.15
Virginia 1.15
Ohio 0.92
Tennessee 0.92
Maryland 0.77
Pennsylvania 0.77
New Jersey 0.62
Michigan 0.54
South Carolina 0.54
Arizona 0.46
Mississippi 0.46
Washington 0.46
DC 0.38
Illinois 0.38
Indiana 0.31
Missouri 0.31
Arkansas 0.23
Kentucky 0.23
New York 0.23
Oregon 0.23
Colorado 0.15
Kansas 0.15
Minnesota 0.15
Connecticut 0.08
Hawaii 0.08
Nebraska 0.08
Nevada 0.08
Oklahoma 0.08
Utah 0.08
Wisconsin 0.08
There were 15 states that did not have a 5* player in that time: Alaska, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming. So for all intents and purposes, those states are excluded from further evaluation.
Step 2: Of the remaining 36 states (including DC), I ranked in my own opinion, the order of most to least likely state we would get a 5* to commit to us. For example, If there's a 5* in South Carolina, I'm pretty certain Clemson or some other top dog in the ACC or SEC gets them, so that would be lowest confidence. Then, based on that order, I assigned a "likely to commit to NEB" percentage. Obviously it's subjective and could be looked at a number of different ways, and factors such as position, current strength of in-state programs, coaching changes, etc could change those percentages - but I was more looking at it generally. Here's what I computed to show where the 5* player is most likely to come from if we were to get 1 5* player per cycle:
What the above is doing is multiplying the chance to get a commit by the average number of 5* in that state in a given year. Then, projecting how many years on average it would take for us to get a 5* player in that state.
The conclusion: Our top 5 states most likely states to get a 5* commit based on my subjective commit %'s are:
#1 Florida - 1 every 11 years
#2 California - 1 every 14 years
#3 Texas - 1 every 16 years
#4 Nebraska/New Jersey - 1 every 17 years
Other states where we should get one 5* commit in a generation (17-30 years) would be Missouri, Illinois, Arizona, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia
States where it could take a lifetime to get one 5* player (31-60 years) would be Kansas, Colorado, Minnesota, Indiana, Washington, Mississippi, Michigan, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Louisiana, Alabama
States where we'll likely never land a 5* player (> 1 every 60 years) would be Nevada, Hawaii, Connecticut, New York, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Utah, DC, Oregon, South Carolina (As well as the other 15 states not analyzed based on above).
Again, a lot of subjective numbers put in by me to get these conclusions. My takeaway though, when we were in the Big XII, our top recruiting state was Texas in theory (#3 on the above list). With Riley, it was California (#2 on the above list) and with Frost it's Florida (#1 on the list). So from that standpoint, Florida could bear the most opportunity for us going forward for the 5* players, more than the 500 mile radius, especially if connections can raise our commit % of those 5* players in Florida higher than the 1.6% of those players I used for my model. If we are thinking the 500 mile radius is going to produce enough 5* talent, even with a much greater chance to land them, it likely won't produce more 5* commits.
Anyway, maybe some will think it's a dumb exercise, I felt like doing it. GBR!
Step 1: Look at all Rivals 5* players over the past 13 years (2006-2018). Here's the average 5* players by state each year:
Florida 5.54
California 3.92
Texas 3.08
Georgia 2.62
Alabama 1.69
Louisiana 1.46
North Carolina 1.15
Virginia 1.15
Ohio 0.92
Tennessee 0.92
Maryland 0.77
Pennsylvania 0.77
New Jersey 0.62
Michigan 0.54
South Carolina 0.54
Arizona 0.46
Mississippi 0.46
Washington 0.46
DC 0.38
Illinois 0.38
Indiana 0.31
Missouri 0.31
Arkansas 0.23
Kentucky 0.23
New York 0.23
Oregon 0.23
Colorado 0.15
Kansas 0.15
Minnesota 0.15
Connecticut 0.08
Hawaii 0.08
Nebraska 0.08
Nevada 0.08
Oklahoma 0.08
Utah 0.08
Wisconsin 0.08
There were 15 states that did not have a 5* player in that time: Alaska, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming. So for all intents and purposes, those states are excluded from further evaluation.
Step 2: Of the remaining 36 states (including DC), I ranked in my own opinion, the order of most to least likely state we would get a 5* to commit to us. For example, If there's a 5* in South Carolina, I'm pretty certain Clemson or some other top dog in the ACC or SEC gets them, so that would be lowest confidence. Then, based on that order, I assigned a "likely to commit to NEB" percentage. Obviously it's subjective and could be looked at a number of different ways, and factors such as position, current strength of in-state programs, coaching changes, etc could change those percentages - but I was more looking at it generally. Here's what I computed to show where the 5* player is most likely to come from if we were to get 1 5* player per cycle:
What the above is doing is multiplying the chance to get a commit by the average number of 5* in that state in a given year. Then, projecting how many years on average it would take for us to get a 5* player in that state.
The conclusion: Our top 5 states most likely states to get a 5* commit based on my subjective commit %'s are:
#1 Florida - 1 every 11 years
#2 California - 1 every 14 years
#3 Texas - 1 every 16 years
#4 Nebraska/New Jersey - 1 every 17 years
Other states where we should get one 5* commit in a generation (17-30 years) would be Missouri, Illinois, Arizona, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia
States where it could take a lifetime to get one 5* player (31-60 years) would be Kansas, Colorado, Minnesota, Indiana, Washington, Mississippi, Michigan, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Louisiana, Alabama
States where we'll likely never land a 5* player (> 1 every 60 years) would be Nevada, Hawaii, Connecticut, New York, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Utah, DC, Oregon, South Carolina (As well as the other 15 states not analyzed based on above).
Again, a lot of subjective numbers put in by me to get these conclusions. My takeaway though, when we were in the Big XII, our top recruiting state was Texas in theory (#3 on the above list). With Riley, it was California (#2 on the above list) and with Frost it's Florida (#1 on the list). So from that standpoint, Florida could bear the most opportunity for us going forward for the 5* players, more than the 500 mile radius, especially if connections can raise our commit % of those 5* players in Florida higher than the 1.6% of those players I used for my model. If we are thinking the 500 mile radius is going to produce enough 5* talent, even with a much greater chance to land them, it likely won't produce more 5* commits.
Anyway, maybe some will think it's a dumb exercise, I felt like doing it. GBR!
