A reminder for me and everyone...5 stars often don't pan out

[Yossarian23]

the age old argument - Stars do not matter because of this player or that player - the point is that the higher the star rating the better chance of getting a great football player. It is not an absolute but the averages are very well established

That's not what he said at all, and you know it.

A poster stated that Michael Oher was one of the highest recruited linemen of all time (I'm assuming based on offers/visits) and regibson replied with the tackles who were higher ranked from that year. He also pointed out that some of those higher ranked busted and some succeeded (and still are succeeding). The highest recruited lineman of all time probably shouldn't be ranked behind busts, is the point I took from his post.

 

[SnohomishRed]

He had multiple posts in this thread discounting star ratings based on this guy didn't work out or that lower rated one did. I believe his train of thought was that the star system means very little and NU can win it all with lower rated players - that is what I was responding to

 

[regibson1]

He had multiple posts in this thread discounting star ratings based on this guy didn't work out or that lower rated one did. I believe his train of thought was that the star system means very little and NU can win it all with lower rated players - that is what I was responding to

I do think that the star system means a lot and can't be discounted but it is not the end all of how a team has recruited for that year. I think that Farniok (based on his offer sheet) was downgraded as a 3* when he should have been ranked higher. (He was ranked the 35 best offensive tackle) Sean Foster was ranked #26 and a 4* but did not have the offer sheet that Matt Farniok had with Michigan, MSU, Iowa, Penn State, Florida State to name a few trying to recruit him.

I believe that Riley and company spent a far greater amount of time deciding which players they wanted to recruit and establishing relationships with them than our past coaches. (I base that opinion on what other posters have said regarding our recruiting efforts this year) They didn't get everyone that they wanted but they did get quite a few that they went after hard.

I trust the judgement of coaches who evaluate the players more than the rankings that have been assigned to them by Rivals. As has been said by other posters, we will know how good this class is in a couple of years.

 

[red rover 70]

Really? So you'd rather roll the dice on a bunch of 3-stars than a bunch of 5-stars?

I'll take the 3 star Nebraska kids all day long. Nebraska Football was built on the this kind of player.

 

[red rover 70]

Plus, you should probably add a star to that Nebraska kid imo.

 

[scottym800]

Yep, we found out first hand 5 star guys don't aways pan out...our last 3 was Z Bowman (i think he did good and has had a good NFL career so far). A Jones...yea he was a starter but never lived up to what id expect from a 5 star CB and then theres Marlon Lucky, he was a solid RB but was never an elite RB like they claim 5 star players are suppose to be. Lucky was a better reciever then RB.

Marlon Lucky is the reason I no longer follow recruiting very closely. I was really high up on him. Like you said, he was solid but not elite. It is hard for me to get excited for 18 year old recruits now. So much can happen in 4-6 years.

 

[dinglefritz]

Michael Oher was listed as the #7 Offensive Tackle out of HS and was a 4* recruit according to Rivals. Players ranked ahead of him were Eugene Monroe 5* (playing and drafted in 1st round), Reginald Youngblood 5* (undrafted and not playing), Alex Boone 5* (undrafted but playing and starting with San Francisco), Dan Doering 5* (undrafted and not playing), Matt Hardwick 4* (playing and drafted in the 3rd round), and Aleksey Lanis 4* (not drafted and not playing).

Michael Oher was recruited to Ole Miss by Ed Orgeron. If Oher was one of the highest recruited O-lineman of all time then Rivals got it wrong with 5 that they rated higher than him. 3 of these were 5* recruits that were never drafted by the NFL.

Interestingly there were LOTS of rumors about recruiting violations involving his recruitment......

 

[regibson1]

Marlon Lucky is the reason I no longer follow recruiting very closely. I was really high up on him. Like you said, he was solid but not elite. It is hard for me to get excited for 18 year old recruits now. So much can happen in 4-6 years.

I too was very excited about Marlon Lucky. You just never know for sure how they are going to pan out it college. Gale Sayers (Omaha Central) was a huge miss for Nebraska in the 60's but I am sure that we were trying to recruit him hard. Marlon Briscoe was another one that never went on to Nebraska but I don't remember the circumstances. He would have made a great option style qb but that wasn't the offense being played in college then.

Danny Woodhead was also a miss for Nebraska after playing HS ball at North Platte. He went to Chadron St. because he said that Nebraska showed little interest in him. So did the pros and he had was not invited by the combine or drafted by the NFL. In his own pro day however he supposedly put up these numbers:

"Woodhead did not receive an invite to the NFL Scouting Combine so he had to use his pro day to show his abilities. According to a report on NFLDraftWatch.net, he ran the 40-yard dash in times of 4.33 to 4.38 seconds which would have been the second-fastest among all running backs at the NFL Combine in March 2008. He posted the best pro-agility time of 4.03 seconds, the second-best vertical jump (38½ inches) and the best 60-yard shuttle time (11.2 seconds). He also bench pressed 225 pounds 20 times.[10]"

Danny signed as an undrafted free agent with the New York Jets. He is still playing now with the Chargers after playing with New England from 2010-2012.

 

[huskerbux]

Here's a headline story for you......

Five 5-star and five 2-star kids walk into a bar. They all get drunk and pass out. Next day, coach walks in and tells the five star guys they will be running laps and sit out 1 quarter against Mary Mother of the Deaf. The 2-star guys are all cut from the team.

Moral of the story? Don't be a 2-star.

 

[dinglefritz]

I too was very excited about Marlon Lucky. You just never know for sure how they are going to pan out it college. Gale Sayers (Omaha Central) was a huge miss for Nebraska in the 60's but I am sure that we were trying to recruit him hard. Marlon Briscoe was another one that never went on to Nebraska but I don't remember the circumstances. He would have made a great option style qb but that wasn't the offense being played in college then.

Danny Woodhead was also a miss for Nebraska after playing HS ball at North Platte. He went to Chadron St. because he said that Nebraska showed little interest in him. So did the pros and he had was not invited by the combine or drafted by the NFL. In his own pro day however he supposedly put up these numbers:

"Woodhead did not receive an invite to the NFL Scouting Combine so he had to use his pro day to show his abilities. According to a report on NFLDraftWatch.net, he ran the 40-yard dash in times of 4.33 to 4.38 seconds which would have been the second-fastest among all running backs at the NFL Combine in March 2008. He posted the best pro-agility time of 4.03 seconds, the second-best vertical jump (38½ inches) and the best 60-yard shuttle time (11.2 seconds). He also bench pressed 225 pounds 20 times.[10]"

Danny signed as an undrafted free agent with the New York Jets. He is still playing now with the Chargers after playing with New England from 2010-2012.

Briscoe insisted on playing QB (and he was a reasonably good one) in college and UNO guaranteed him he would be a QB and get a degree was what he said on 590 the other day.

 

[sparky62]

Nothing is guaranteed. That's a fact. A lot has to do with determination & drive. I'm not saying that talent isn't part of the equation but heart is a lot of the process.

 

[Huskers_Rule]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nca...re-never-stars-in-college/ss-BBoWD1Z#image=12

The problem with that is a lot of 4, 3, 2 and 1 star players don't pan out either. The real question is do 5 star players make it at a greater rate than lower star players.

 

[AndyHanline]

Yes they do. One of the writers posted the stats on RSS and it showed that 4&5 stars are drafted at a much higher rate than 2&3 stars.

 

[otismotis08]

Your chances of winning a NC are much greater with 4&5 stars. Fact.
Discussion otherwise is "excuse making".

 

[spinner4]

Your chances of winning a NC are much greater with 4&5 stars. Fact.
Discussion otherwise is "excuse making".

It's all about limiting risk. If you don't believe that Riley's class has more risk in it then Michigan, tOSU, or Bama then your not a very good assessor of risk.

Go look at nfl.com's mock draft. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/mock-drafts . There are 22 guys that they see being top 15 draft picks. Only 1 of those dudes was actually a 3 star (Kevin Dodd of Clemson). And only 50% of the guys on NFL.com's crew thinks Dodd is even a 1st round draft pick. And as you can see below, Rivals actually ends up doing a pretty freaking amazing job ranking theses kids. Almost everyone is a 4 or 5 star.

Look at these numbers (NFL.com's top 22 players in this years NFL Draft):
5 Stars : 8
4 Stars : 10
3 Stars: 1
NR: 3

Also, notice that every team that's won a title had a least 1 top 5 recruiting class that contributed to that title. Most had more than 1 and all had a couple top 15 classes. But yet some husker fans keep thinking the system is not legit. Some keep thinking we are going to find some way to cheat the system and win with a bunch of 3 star guys. It just has never worked like that. My theory is that most husker fans don't believe in the star system because lets face it, most of the time our highly ranked guys bust out. Look at the few 5 stars we've had. Lucky wasn't as good as advertised and Bo ****ed up Baker. Baker was a 5 star O-lineman & a 3 Star D-lineman. Baker's still playing in the NFL had played OT.

Anyways unless someone proves otherwise, the star system is pretty legit and appears to only getting stronger.

#1 -Tunsil Ole Miss OT - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/117403

#2 Goff Cal QB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/133602

#3 Bosa tOSU DE - 4Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/129378

#4 Stanley ND OT- 4Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/104949

#5 Ramsey FSU CB - 5star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/125155

#6 Buckner Oregon DE - 4Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/109508

#7 Vernon Hargreaves Florida CB - 5Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/123483

#8 Myles Jack UCLA LB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/133610

#9 Laquon Treadwell Ole Miss WR - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/127250

#10 Jaylon Smith ND LB - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/125963

#11 Shaq Lawson Clemson DE - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/119642

#12 Eli Apple tOSU CB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/120790

#13 Ezekiel Elliott tOSU RB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/135901

#14 A'Shawn Robinson Bama DT - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/123086

#15 Carson Wentz NDSU- Not Rated
Can't find a rivals profile.


#16 - Reggie Ragland - Bama LB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/98588

#17 Kevin Dodd - Clemson DT - 3 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/114136

#18 Andrew Billings - Baylor DT - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/114976

#19 Mackensie Alexander - Clemson CB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/130809

#20 Jack Conklin - MSU OT - NR
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/130391

#21 Robert Nkemdiche - Ole Miss DE - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/113275

#22 Paxton Lynch - Memphis QB - NR
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/125984

 

[AndyHanline]

It's all about limiting risk. If you don't believe that Riley's class has more risk in it then Michigan, tOSU, or Bama then your not a very good assessor of risk.

Go look at nfl.com's mock draft. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/mock-drafts . There are 22 guys that they see being top 15 draft picks. Only 1 of those dudes was actually a 3 star (Kevin Dodd of Clemson). And only 50% of the guys on NFL.com's crew thinks Dodd is even a 1st round draft pick. And as you can see below, Rivals actually ends up doing a pretty freaking amazing job ranking theses kids. Almost everyone is a 4 or 5 star.

Look at these numbers (NFL.com's top 22 players in this years NFL Draft):
5 Stars : 8
4 Stars : 10
3 Stars: 1
NR: 3

Also, notice that every team that's won a title had a least 1 top 5 recruiting class that contributed to that title. Most had more than 1 and all had a couple top 15 classes. But yet some husker fans keep thinking the system is not legit. Some keep thinking we are going to find some way to cheat the system and win with a bunch of 3 star guys. It just has never worked like that. My theory is that most husker fans don't believe in the star system because lets face it, most of the time our highly ranked guys bust out. Look at the few 5 stars we've had. Lucky wasn't as good as advertised and Bo ****ed up Baker. Baker was a 5 star O-lineman & a 3 Star D-lineman. Baker's still playing in the NFL had played OT.

Anyways unless someone proves otherwise, the star system is pretty legit and appears to only getting stronger.

#1 -Tunsil Ole Miss OT - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/117403

#2 Goff Cal QB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/133602

#3 Bosa tOSU DE - 4Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/129378

#4 Stanley ND OT- 4Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/104949

#5 Ramsey FSU CB - 5star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/125155

#6 Buckner Oregon DE - 4Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/109508

#7 Vernon Hargreaves Florida CB - 5Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/123483

#8 Myles Jack UCLA LB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/133610

#9 Laquon Treadwell Ole Miss WR - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/127250

#10 Jaylon Smith ND LB - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/125963

#11 Shaq Lawson Clemson DE - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/119642

#12 Eli Apple tOSU CB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/120790

#13 Ezekiel Elliott tOSU RB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/135901

#14 A'Shawn Robinson Bama DT - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/123086

#15 Carson Wentz NDSU- Not Rated
Can't find a rivals profile.


#16 - Reggie Ragland - Bama LB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/98588

#17 Kevin Dodd - Clemson DT - 3 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/114136

#18 Andrew Billings - Baylor DT - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/114976

#19 Mackensie Alexander - Clemson CB - 4 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/130809

#20 Jack Conklin - MSU OT - NR
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/130391

#21 Robert Nkemdiche - Ole Miss DE - 5 Star
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/113275

#22 Paxton Lynch - Memphis QB - NR
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/maple/125984

Thread

 

[regibson1]

Thread

I don't think (at least I don't) that anyone is disputing that Rival rankings of players can be used as a measure of how well a team has recruited for that year. Having a team full of 3 star players isn't going to get you a very high ranking in the polls and you are not likely to have a very successful team if all your players were rated as 3* coming out of HS.

Nebraska this year had 4 4* players according to Rivals. We had two 5.9 ranked players and two 5.8 players. Players ranked between 5.8 to 6.0 are considered possible AA candidates according to Rival rankings. The rest of our players were 3* with the exception of the kicker who was listed as 2*. Out of our 3* players were five that were given 5.7 rankings which is 0.1 below that of a 4 star player. these players were:

Matt Farniok OL (Parade All-American)
Derrion Grim Ath (Parade All-American)
Colin Miller LB
JD Spielman Ath
Bryan Brokup OL

According to Rivals, all 3* rated players (5.7-5.5) are deemed to have pro potential. Out of the 5 5.7 players listed above, if they had graded 5.8 they would have been 4* recruits which would certainly have changed where we ended up in the team rankings. I think that two of these guys should have probably received 4* ratings (Farniok and Grim).

Can Nebraska recruit better? I don't think that there is any reason to believe that we can't. This year however, we filled in some holes and got some notable players that fit the offense and defense going forward. Next year we may have a top 15 class based on the recruiting efforts that have been taking place since January 2015.