What are Lincoln Riley's chances of success at Oklahoma?
Given what's going on in Norman right now, and given our own bad experience with head coaches who had no CFB HC experience, I decided to look at the records of other schools which made similar hires.
This list includes coaches without at least two years of CFB HC experience who were hired at the blue-bloods and other title-contending programs from 1992-2017.
Their records are not too promising:
NEBRASKA:
Frank Solich, 1998-2003 - Bust
Bill Callahan, 2004-2007 - Bust
Bo Pelini, 2008-2014 - Bust
NOTRE DAME:
Bob Davie, 1997-2001 - Bust
Charlie Weis, 2005-2009 - Bust
ALABAMA:
Mike DuBose, 1997-2000 - Bust
Mike Shula, 2003-2006 - Bust
USC:
Pete Carroll, 2001-2009 - Success (though with lots of forfeits)
Lane Kiffin, 2010-2013 - Bust
OKLAHOMA:
Gary Gibbs (shoehorned in), 1989-1994 - Bust
John Blake, 1996-1998 - Bust
Bob Stoops, 2009-2016 - Success
OHIO STATE:
Luke Fickell, 2011 - Bust (Interim coach, but his season still counts)
TEXAS:
None
MICHIGAN:
Lloyd Carr, 1995-2007 - Success (though he's damned lucky the BCS didn't start a year earlier)
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CLEMSON:
Dabo Swinney, 2008-Present - Success
FLORIDA STATE:
Jimbo Fisher, 2010-Present - Success
MIAMI:
Butch Davis, 1995-2000 - Success
Larry Coker, 2001-2006 - Mixed Record
Randy Shannon, 2007-2010 - Bust
FLORIDA:
Ron Zook, 2002-2004 - Bust
Will Muschamp, 2011-2014 - Bust
TENNESSEE:
Phil Fulmer, 1992-2008 - Success
Lane Kiffin, 2009 - Bust
AUBURN:
Gus Malzahn, 2013-Present - Jury's Out, Leaning Bust
GEORGIA:
Mark Richt, 2001-2015 - Mixed Record
Kirby Smart, 2016-Present - Jury's Out, Rocky Start
PENN STATE:
Bill O'Brien, 2012-2013 - Mixed Record
KANSAS STATE:
Ron Prince, 2006-2008 - Bust
WASHINGTON:
Jim Lambright, 1993-1998 - Bust
Steve Sarkisian, 2009-2013 - Bust
STANFORD:
David Shaw, 2011-Present - Success
OREGON:
Chip Kelly, 2009-2012 - Success
Mark Helfrich, 2013-2016 - Bust
COLORADO:
Rick Neuheisel, 1995-1998 - Bust
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That's 34 coaches in all. 20 were busts; 5 have mixed records.
Only 9 were successes. That's roughly a 1 in 4 shot at success.
Oh, and the coaches who were succeeding real legends or near-legends?
Only 2 out of 15 could be considered a success (Fisher & Shaw). The rest were busts.
But hey: no pressure, Lincoln. I'm sure at the ripe 'ole age of 33, you're ready to beat the odds.
Given what's going on in Norman right now, and given our own bad experience with head coaches who had no CFB HC experience, I decided to look at the records of other schools which made similar hires.
This list includes coaches without at least two years of CFB HC experience who were hired at the blue-bloods and other title-contending programs from 1992-2017.
Their records are not too promising:
NEBRASKA:
Frank Solich, 1998-2003 - Bust
Bill Callahan, 2004-2007 - Bust
Bo Pelini, 2008-2014 - Bust
NOTRE DAME:
Bob Davie, 1997-2001 - Bust
Charlie Weis, 2005-2009 - Bust
ALABAMA:
Mike DuBose, 1997-2000 - Bust
Mike Shula, 2003-2006 - Bust
USC:
Pete Carroll, 2001-2009 - Success (though with lots of forfeits)
Lane Kiffin, 2010-2013 - Bust
OKLAHOMA:
Gary Gibbs (shoehorned in), 1989-1994 - Bust
John Blake, 1996-1998 - Bust
Bob Stoops, 2009-2016 - Success
OHIO STATE:
Luke Fickell, 2011 - Bust (Interim coach, but his season still counts)
TEXAS:
None
MICHIGAN:
Lloyd Carr, 1995-2007 - Success (though he's damned lucky the BCS didn't start a year earlier)
--------
CLEMSON:
Dabo Swinney, 2008-Present - Success
FLORIDA STATE:
Jimbo Fisher, 2010-Present - Success
MIAMI:
Butch Davis, 1995-2000 - Success
Larry Coker, 2001-2006 - Mixed Record
Randy Shannon, 2007-2010 - Bust
FLORIDA:
Ron Zook, 2002-2004 - Bust
Will Muschamp, 2011-2014 - Bust
TENNESSEE:
Phil Fulmer, 1992-2008 - Success
Lane Kiffin, 2009 - Bust
AUBURN:
Gus Malzahn, 2013-Present - Jury's Out, Leaning Bust
GEORGIA:
Mark Richt, 2001-2015 - Mixed Record
Kirby Smart, 2016-Present - Jury's Out, Rocky Start
PENN STATE:
Bill O'Brien, 2012-2013 - Mixed Record
KANSAS STATE:
Ron Prince, 2006-2008 - Bust
WASHINGTON:
Jim Lambright, 1993-1998 - Bust
Steve Sarkisian, 2009-2013 - Bust
STANFORD:
David Shaw, 2011-Present - Success
OREGON:
Chip Kelly, 2009-2012 - Success
Mark Helfrich, 2013-2016 - Bust
COLORADO:
Rick Neuheisel, 1995-1998 - Bust
--------
That's 34 coaches in all. 20 were busts; 5 have mixed records.
Only 9 were successes. That's roughly a 1 in 4 shot at success.
Oh, and the coaches who were succeeding real legends or near-legends?
Only 2 out of 15 could be considered a success (Fisher & Shaw). The rest were busts.
But hey: no pressure, Lincoln. I'm sure at the ripe 'ole age of 33, you're ready to beat the odds.
