Toledo +9.5
Utah st +24
Tennessee -27.5
South Carolina +2
Post your picks if you’d like
Whether you’re fading or following, good luck!
**Edited after the results today**
I'm not playing anything today, because I'm seeing how things are shaping up in college football.
So far 16 teams have covered the spread, and 22 have failed to cover.
Historically, the best opening lines to bet are 7-9.5 and 21-27.5. Both are over 58%. (Too low for me).
The lowest percentage to cover include teams that open between 10.0 and 13.5 points. (Only 36% cover the spread).
One angle that I looked at today was the highest percentage teams to cover might include:
Boston College -8 v. No. Illinois
Did NOT cover, BC lost in OT
Liberty -8 v. Bowling Green
Covered
Army- 8.5 v. UL Monroe
Did NOT cover.
Illinois -9.0 v. Illinois
Did NOT cover.
Again, I didn't play anything, but this is a spread that I don't believe I will use this year. All these teams with this spread are up and down offensively and generally low scoring. It's like betting horses that will finish a nose or head apart, too close for my taste, not enough room for error.
Three other high percentage teams to cover would include:
Tennesse - 27.5 v. Virginia
COVERED
Kentucky - 26.5 v. Ball State C
OVERED
Auburn -35.0 v. U MASS (Last year Auburn was 3-4 td's less than GA, ALA, TENN).
COVERED
(Hugh Freeze far superior to Hartsell as coach, plus that team quit on him last year).
Again, I didn't play anything. I'm going to be more willing to give points to teams that tend to score a lot of points. There is more room for error.
Again, I'm not playing any of these games, I'm just gathering data for the weeks to come. So don't pay any attention to these games as a barometer. Its an ongoing experiment.
At this point, the numbers are just the numbers.
A decent 4 team parlay would have been Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn and Toledo.
Until you get into the sector of teams that consistently score a lot of points, the leading factor for most teams is if their QB is returning or if a new starter for that team. Then I'm taking into account if they had a QB transfer in that has a history of taking care of the ball or not. For example, Hartman at N. Dame vs. Ugaleilei at Oregon State, Sims at NU, Daniels at Rice.
Oregon State has been very good, but now they are gonna start the kid from Clemson who has a history of turning the ball over. He may remain bad or he may really improve, because that Oregon State coach is low profile, but very good. The QB will prove it one way or another in the first few weeks. The Tulane coach is the same type.
I tend to be very methodical in my approach. When you're collecting data you don't want to start jumping to conclusions until you get some verification that you're on the right track. I know for a fact, I won't be playing -3.0 and under spreads. One bad play can get you beat.
I'm developing a spreadsheet and the right data will present itself when the time comes. It's awful early.
Today, Ohio State looked like a slam dunk vs. Indiana, yet they only scored in the 30's, so their adjustment from Stroud to the new starter is apparent. Even Michigan is slow out of the game and they should have really rolled today, but they didn't.
Sorry for the long post. I was 0-0 today, and sometimes that's a pretty good day.
I'm not gonna start playing until I remove the unstable teams from my choices. The very strongest angle that I have found so far is teams that are coming off a loss. There look to be some really great rebound teams. The problem is the three that I plan to plan will probably not lose more than 7-8 times combined this entire year.
