My next two posts will be long (surprise) and I will list the field of horses from lowest to highest Morning Line odds. First page will be the horses at 20/1 and lower odds, then a break and the 2nd longest odds horse.
On the first page I will explain the pattern of each horse, that somewhat explains why their odds are lower than others.
This will be Page 2 of more "mind numbing" numbers. If you didn't like Page 1, you will like this page even less.
Last year the winning PATTERN for the top 4 finishers were" PT, PT, TP, TP. In 2022 it was OP, TP, TP, PO.
Sooo,
on paper, if a horse did NOT run a PAIR in either of its previously prep run races, they did not finish in the Top 4.
The winning horse pattern from left to right from 2023 back to 2013 were as follows:
PT, OP, PP, TP, OT, XP, TP, PT, PP, TT. So, in the last 10 Derby's 8 of the 10 winners PAIRED one of their 2 prep races. (80%).
Last year, in the entire field, horses that PAIRED one of their 2 prep races, finished 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,15,17,19.
AND the horses that PAIRED their prep 2 races back ran 1-2-3-4-6-7-15.
In the last 27 Derby's (not including Covid of 2020) these are the NEW TOPS, PAIRS, OFF's and X's earned by 499 horse that ran in those Derby's. @ 500 is a damn nice sample.
TOPS 10.2%.......PAIRED 21.6%.......OFF 23.8%.......44.3%. Between the OFF and X, over 68% of the horses will run poorly.
Horses with 2 preps fared the best: TOP= PF ever, PAIR within 1 pt of previous best, Off 1-4 pts worse, X = 4> worse.
TOPS 16.7%, PAIRED 20.4%, OFF 19.4%, X's 43.5%.
Horses with 3 preps:
TOP 10.4%, PAIRED 24.2%, OFF 27.5%, X's 37.9%.
Horses with 4 preps:
TOP 5.8%, 18.5%, 22.5%, X's 53.2%.
To summarize, the more preps over 2 the lower the win percentage became.
And the horses that ran OFF or X's became a higher percentage from 52.9% to 67.4% to 80.7%.
To spare you from numbers, horses that run a new top in the race BEFORE the Derby ran a new TOP only 4.9% of the time. Those that paired that previous race top were 13.6%. The failures of OFF and X were 81.5%.
At age 3, horses that ran 2 points above their 2 year old top won 18.5% of the Derby's. If paired their previous top 23.5% .
Horses MORE than 4 points above their 2 year old top won had a new top ONLY 4.3% od the time, and their X's = 52.7%.
Using these parameters if a horse checks NONE of the boxes they run a new TOP only 2% of the time. and they X 70%.
IF a horse checks ALL 3 boxes, they run a new top 21.9% of the time, and pair their previous best 31.3% of the time. So, A horse that checks ALL 3 boxes will run a new TOP or PAIR their previous best race 53.2% of the time.
Horses that are unraced at 2 must break their maiden, and then earn enough points to quality for the Derby. Hard.
Only 3.7% earn a new top in the Derby, 25.9% pair their previous top, but when it comes to OFF and X it is 70.4%.
I know, this is a lot of stuff. With respect, if you don't do it all the time, its pretty confusing. Fortunately, as time goes on, I'm able to answer some questions any of you may have.
The last components, middle to late next week, will be the JOCKEYS. And yes, they are a big factor. I do a yearly spreadsheet so I'm able to know which jockeys tend to improve the horse and which ones don't.
The final post will be a day or so before the Derby when Post Positions are drawn.
I know some of you think I'm a little "off" by doing this type of research, but I love the shit out of doing stuff like this. What I'm doing here is exactly what I do for myself. Instead of putting it on a Word document, I'm just posting it on this forum. Other than I don't have to editorialize when I'm doing it for myself.
I hope some of us can win some decent money, but please understand this is a complicated puzzle that has no answer from year to year. If I DO like a horse, trust me, its because I've done a ton of research to arrive at that conclusion. And I can be wrong just like everyone else. Once that gate opens, the rules no longer apply.
