Heading into (hopefully) the final week of this coaching search. Here's a couple hard truths to realize:
1) We've always gone cheap on coaches (Frost doesn't count)
2) We have paid near the top (if not the top) of D1 football in coaches buyouts over the past 2 decades
In this case, 1 + 2 = it's not being a good steward shying away from paying the right guy a crap ton of money
Here's the real truth. There are only 2-3 coaches in all of college football this doesn't apply to: There are only 2 kinds of coaches...Those that are fired and those that are soon to be fired.
Every coach comes with risk. The best bets generally give you about a 30-40% success rate. BUT the coaches you can get cheap come with a much HIGHER risk.
Here's the tier system of candidates (success = competing for conference championships):
That's how it works. You pay to move up tiers typically. Are we willing to spend to get into tier 1 or 2? Probably not. Most likely we end up in 3 or ever 4. We've always been pretty soft when it comes to spending. The one exception was (kind of) Frost, but I don't think it's fair to judge how willing we are to use the checkbook by how much we paid the hometown hero. It certainly increases the appetite.
Nothing in our history to me suggests we're willing to spend the money to get into the best tiers. The irony is that being in the top 2 tiers is being a good steward of the war chest, even though it costs more. We are near the top of P5 football programs in "buyout costs" over the past two decades and we got there by going cheap.
Please for the love of everything Husker football, try something different for this time instead of just expecting different results this time.
1) We've always gone cheap on coaches (Frost doesn't count)
2) We have paid near the top (if not the top) of D1 football in coaches buyouts over the past 2 decades
In this case, 1 + 2 = it's not being a good steward shying away from paying the right guy a crap ton of money
Here's the real truth. There are only 2-3 coaches in all of college football this doesn't apply to: There are only 2 kinds of coaches...Those that are fired and those that are soon to be fired.
Every coach comes with risk. The best bets generally give you about a 30-40% success rate. BUT the coaches you can get cheap come with a much HIGHER risk.
Here's the tier system of candidates (success = competing for conference championships):
- The only "sure" thing to work is probably Urban (I'd handicap it at 80% likely success).
- Urban Meyer - Your next best tier coaches probably give you about a 40% shot of success.
- Rhule
- Fickell (maybe a stretch)
- Lane - Talented individuals that are still outside the second tier, but it definitely could work (prob 25% chance)
- Bielema (maybe 2nd tier)
- Deion
- Deboer
- Kleiman
- Aranda
- O'Brien
- Wittingham
- Gundy - Then there's the high risk tier. Guys who show flashes of talent but either don't have experience or they have some big question marks (5-10% chance)
- Leipold
- Monken
- Traylor
- Some FCS guy - Super high risk (<5% chance at success)
- Mickey
- Campbell
That's how it works. You pay to move up tiers typically. Are we willing to spend to get into tier 1 or 2? Probably not. Most likely we end up in 3 or ever 4. We've always been pretty soft when it comes to spending. The one exception was (kind of) Frost, but I don't think it's fair to judge how willing we are to use the checkbook by how much we paid the hometown hero. It certainly increases the appetite.
Nothing in our history to me suggests we're willing to spend the money to get into the best tiers. The irony is that being in the top 2 tiers is being a good steward of the war chest, even though it costs more. We are near the top of P5 football programs in "buyout costs" over the past two decades and we got there by going cheap.
Please for the love of everything Husker football, try something different for this time instead of just expecting different results this time.
