Nebraska has a QB with 27 career starts under his belt. I won't quite call him a 4th year QB, because a true 4th year QB would've started close to 36 games by now. When Nebraska went to Colorado in 2019, the CU QB, Steven Montez, was making his 38th career start. But needless to say, Adrian is one of the more experienced QB's in Power 5 football. So I went back and looked at his performances vs. the Big Ten teams on this current schedule, other power 5 teams, other Group of 5 teams, and even the one other FCS team Nebraska has played since 2018.
While matchups, schemes, and coaches, are different, we should be able to extrapolate some type of understanding about the type of season Adrian MIGHT be able to have in 2021.
(2 Starts) Illinois - 49 for 72, (68%) 661 yards, 7 TDs, 1 Int, 35 carries for 181 yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles
(1 start) Michigan State - 16 for 37, (43%) 145 yards, 0 TDs, 7 for 18, 0 TDs, 0 fumbles (Snow and miserable weather game, 2018)
(1 start) Michigan - 7 for 15, (48%) 22 yards, 7 for -12, 1 int, 1 fumble - only played 1st half (2nd career start, after CU injury)
(3 starts) Northwestern- 50 for 82 (61%) for 521 yards, 1 TD, 3 Int, 34 carries for 185 yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles
(2 starts) Minnesota - 41 for 56 (73%) for 387 yards, 4 TDs, 0 Int, 30 for 221 yards, 2 TDs, 1 fumble
(3 starts) Purdue - 70 for 111 (63%) for 812 yards, 3 TDs, 2 Ints, 43 carries for 194 yards, 4 TDs, 0 fumbles
(3 starts) Ohio State - 42 of 65, (65%) 1 TD, 3 Int, 48 carries for 238 yards, 3 TDs, 2 fumbles
(2 starts) Wisconsin - 37 for 65 (57%), 3 TDs, 1 Int, 29 for 146 yards, 2 TDs, 2 fumbles
(3 starts) Iowa - 54 for 76 (71%) 3 TDs, 2 Ints, 31 carries for 148 yards, 2 TDs, 2 fumbles
( 1 start) Career vs. FCS - 15 for 22, 213 yards, 2 TDs, 2 carries for -7 yards, 0 TDs, 0 fumbles
(2 starts) Career vs. FBS G5- 29 for 49 (60%) 435 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Int, 24 carries for 50 yards, 3 TDs, 0 fumbles
(2 starts) Non con vs. Power 5 - 31 for 46 (67%) for 477 yards, 2 TDs, 2 Int, 34 for 176, 4 TDs, 2 fumbles
(2 other Big Ten starts vs. Maryland and Rutgers) - 40 for 52 (77%) 449 yards 3 TDs, 2 Int, 33 for 247 yards, 4 TDs, 2 fumbles
There are a few obvious things that jump out:
1. 13 of Adrian's 26 career starts have come vs. a team ranked in the top 20 Nationally of Total Defense. I wonder how many other college QB's with at least 25 career starts have encountered that type of competition?
2. The fumble numbers are awful. The TD to Int ratio is ok on its own, but the fumble numbers really drive his overall turnover numbers into the shitty category.
3. Adrian Martinez is arguably the top running QB in the country since 2018. He only needs 2 rushing touchdowns to surpass Tommy Armstrong's career total. He will likely move into the top 5 of All Time Rushing TDs scored by a QB in Big Ten history by the end of the 2021 season.
4. In Adrian's 20 career Big Ten starts, Nebraska has allowed 34 ppg. I'm not a statistician, but Adrian's turnovers amounted to roughly 2 ppg for the opponent, during that timeframe. Its difficult to gauge how the turnovers might have taken AWAY from Nebraska's scoring. But Nebraska's special teams and just BAD defense was a bigger component. When its all mixed together, its easy to see why Nebraska loses games.
What can we extrapolate from these numbers?
1. Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland, and Purdue have the least talented defensive rosters Adrian has faced the last 3 seasons. During that timeframe, Adrian is 7-2 as a starter vs. those teams. His numbers have been insane vs. those defenses as well. Bottom line.... If Nebraska can play any semblance of defense, Martinez should absolutely be able to put up big numbers vs. Illinois and Purdue again. And while Michigan State has historically been better than those other four teams, their defensive talent in 2021 will either be new, raw, or very much on par with Rutgers from 2021.
2. No team has confused Adrian more than Northwestern. The Cats disguise coverages more than any other team in the Big Ten, and its not just Adrian that struggles vs. the Cats, its every QB they face. But one thing that's really interesting about the last 3 matchups is Northwestern has started Blake Gallagher, Paddy Fisher, Greg Newsome, and Earnest Brown in everyone of those matchups vs. Adrian. Rush Ends Joe Gaziano and Andrew Leota started two of those games.
- Blake Gallagher - Baltimore Ravens - 3 games
- Paddy Fisher - Carolina Panthers - 3 games
- Greg Newsome - Cleveland Browns - 3 games
- Joe Gaziano - LA Chargers - 2 games
- Earnest Brown - LA Rams- 3 games
- Andrew Leota - Transferred to Auburn - 2 games'
That's a lot of talent and experience NW is losing on the defensive side of the ball. One other important factor to consider vs. NW is the running game. The Cats make it hard on teams because they stop the run. Run the damn ball, and their pass defense is dramatically less effective.
3. No team plays more zone than Iowa. And when Adrian has been healthy, he's been decent against the Hawks. One would think Nebraska has an edge going into 2021, but Iowa continually scores 10 to 13 ppg vs. Nebraska on Special teams alone. That's why they keep beating Nebraska.
4. RG and RT have allowed a lot of sacks over the the last 3 seasons. I think its interesting that Adrian has been sacked a LOT more from his front side. This has also led to about half his fumbles. The other half have come at the end of runs, especially when he leaves his feet. Adrian... Stop leaving your feet in traffic. However, Benhart has to be better in Pass Pro, and while I doubt Nebraska can expect the same run blocking push from Farniok's replacement, they definitely need an upgrade in pass pro.
5. If Nebraska can play better defense and special teams vs Wisconsin and Iowa, they can absolutely score enough points to beat those teams. That's up to Coach Frost.
While matchups, schemes, and coaches, are different, we should be able to extrapolate some type of understanding about the type of season Adrian MIGHT be able to have in 2021.
(2 Starts) Illinois - 49 for 72, (68%) 661 yards, 7 TDs, 1 Int, 35 carries for 181 yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles
(1 start) Michigan State - 16 for 37, (43%) 145 yards, 0 TDs, 7 for 18, 0 TDs, 0 fumbles (Snow and miserable weather game, 2018)
(1 start) Michigan - 7 for 15, (48%) 22 yards, 7 for -12, 1 int, 1 fumble - only played 1st half (2nd career start, after CU injury)
(3 starts) Northwestern- 50 for 82 (61%) for 521 yards, 1 TD, 3 Int, 34 carries for 185 yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles
(2 starts) Minnesota - 41 for 56 (73%) for 387 yards, 4 TDs, 0 Int, 30 for 221 yards, 2 TDs, 1 fumble
(3 starts) Purdue - 70 for 111 (63%) for 812 yards, 3 TDs, 2 Ints, 43 carries for 194 yards, 4 TDs, 0 fumbles
(3 starts) Ohio State - 42 of 65, (65%) 1 TD, 3 Int, 48 carries for 238 yards, 3 TDs, 2 fumbles
(2 starts) Wisconsin - 37 for 65 (57%), 3 TDs, 1 Int, 29 for 146 yards, 2 TDs, 2 fumbles
(3 starts) Iowa - 54 for 76 (71%) 3 TDs, 2 Ints, 31 carries for 148 yards, 2 TDs, 2 fumbles
( 1 start) Career vs. FCS - 15 for 22, 213 yards, 2 TDs, 2 carries for -7 yards, 0 TDs, 0 fumbles
(2 starts) Career vs. FBS G5- 29 for 49 (60%) 435 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Int, 24 carries for 50 yards, 3 TDs, 0 fumbles
(2 starts) Non con vs. Power 5 - 31 for 46 (67%) for 477 yards, 2 TDs, 2 Int, 34 for 176, 4 TDs, 2 fumbles
(2 other Big Ten starts vs. Maryland and Rutgers) - 40 for 52 (77%) 449 yards 3 TDs, 2 Int, 33 for 247 yards, 4 TDs, 2 fumbles
There are a few obvious things that jump out:
1. 13 of Adrian's 26 career starts have come vs. a team ranked in the top 20 Nationally of Total Defense. I wonder how many other college QB's with at least 25 career starts have encountered that type of competition?
2. The fumble numbers are awful. The TD to Int ratio is ok on its own, but the fumble numbers really drive his overall turnover numbers into the shitty category.
3. Adrian Martinez is arguably the top running QB in the country since 2018. He only needs 2 rushing touchdowns to surpass Tommy Armstrong's career total. He will likely move into the top 5 of All Time Rushing TDs scored by a QB in Big Ten history by the end of the 2021 season.
4. In Adrian's 20 career Big Ten starts, Nebraska has allowed 34 ppg. I'm not a statistician, but Adrian's turnovers amounted to roughly 2 ppg for the opponent, during that timeframe. Its difficult to gauge how the turnovers might have taken AWAY from Nebraska's scoring. But Nebraska's special teams and just BAD defense was a bigger component. When its all mixed together, its easy to see why Nebraska loses games.
What can we extrapolate from these numbers?
1. Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland, and Purdue have the least talented defensive rosters Adrian has faced the last 3 seasons. During that timeframe, Adrian is 7-2 as a starter vs. those teams. His numbers have been insane vs. those defenses as well. Bottom line.... If Nebraska can play any semblance of defense, Martinez should absolutely be able to put up big numbers vs. Illinois and Purdue again. And while Michigan State has historically been better than those other four teams, their defensive talent in 2021 will either be new, raw, or very much on par with Rutgers from 2021.
2. No team has confused Adrian more than Northwestern. The Cats disguise coverages more than any other team in the Big Ten, and its not just Adrian that struggles vs. the Cats, its every QB they face. But one thing that's really interesting about the last 3 matchups is Northwestern has started Blake Gallagher, Paddy Fisher, Greg Newsome, and Earnest Brown in everyone of those matchups vs. Adrian. Rush Ends Joe Gaziano and Andrew Leota started two of those games.
- Blake Gallagher - Baltimore Ravens - 3 games
- Paddy Fisher - Carolina Panthers - 3 games
- Greg Newsome - Cleveland Browns - 3 games
- Joe Gaziano - LA Chargers - 2 games
- Earnest Brown - LA Rams- 3 games
- Andrew Leota - Transferred to Auburn - 2 games'
That's a lot of talent and experience NW is losing on the defensive side of the ball. One other important factor to consider vs. NW is the running game. The Cats make it hard on teams because they stop the run. Run the damn ball, and their pass defense is dramatically less effective.
3. No team plays more zone than Iowa. And when Adrian has been healthy, he's been decent against the Hawks. One would think Nebraska has an edge going into 2021, but Iowa continually scores 10 to 13 ppg vs. Nebraska on Special teams alone. That's why they keep beating Nebraska.
4. RG and RT have allowed a lot of sacks over the the last 3 seasons. I think its interesting that Adrian has been sacked a LOT more from his front side. This has also led to about half his fumbles. The other half have come at the end of runs, especially when he leaves his feet. Adrian... Stop leaving your feet in traffic. However, Benhart has to be better in Pass Pro, and while I doubt Nebraska can expect the same run blocking push from Farniok's replacement, they definitely need an upgrade in pass pro.
5. If Nebraska can play better defense and special teams vs Wisconsin and Iowa, they can absolutely score enough points to beat those teams. That's up to Coach Frost.
