Would Frost survive four losing seasons?

[husker2612]

I truly believe that Frost thinks he getting 5 years no matter what so he did things differently than other coaches. We seem to be awfully young with a lot of redshirts.

I think there is a bit of truth to this. I do think Frost was building slowly for the future. I think coming in he had no clue the dumpster fire he was walking into on a player mental and emotional level. Once here he saw and realized that wasn't going to be fixed in a season or 2. Most players need to be his to erase the negative mindset and attitudes on the team. I think he didn't want' to "waste" his young guys especially those who weren't quite ready maybe physically or mentally. This would just add to the problems. So he played guys like Wandale who were strong enough physically and mentally. He saved/RS all others for the future. I honestly believe he knew these first 2 years could be rough but was willing to sacrifice short term for long.
Now that being said. I don't think he is safe for 5 years no matter what. I think he has to show he can put together a competent team this year and at the very very least get to bowl. Probably closer to 7 or 8 wins to take the heat off. If he has 4 losing season I would bet there is almost no chance he makes it to year 5. I wonder has there ever been a p5 coach (in the last 50 years) who has had 4 losing seasons and been retained for the 5th? To add to that question if there has did they suddenly flip it around year 5 or 6 and turn into a championship level coach. If no that probably says all we need to know about keep Frost into year 5 with 4 losing seasons.

 

[huskerssalts]

I think there is a bit of truth to this. I do think Frost was building slowly for the future. I think coming in he had no clue the dumpster fire he was walking into on a player mental and emotional level. Once here he saw and realized that wasn't going to be fixed in a season or 2. Most players need to be his to erase the negative mindset and attitudes on the team. I think he didn't want' to "waste" his young guys especially those who weren't quite ready maybe physically or mentally. This would just add to the problems. So he played guys like Wandale who were strong enough physically and mentally. He saved/RS all others for the future. I honestly believe he knew these first 2 years could be rough but was willing to sacrifice short term for long.
Now that being said. I don't think he is safe for 5 years no matter what. I think he has to show he can put together a competent team this year and at the very very least get to bowl. Probably closer to 7 or 8 wins to take the heat off. If he has 4 losing season I would bet there is almost no chance he makes it to year 5. I wonder has there ever been a p5 coach (in the last 50 years) who has had 4 losing seasons and been retained for the 5th? To add to that question if there has did they suddenly flip it around year 5 or 6 and turn into a championship level coach. If no that probably says all we need to know about keep Frost into year 5 with 4 losing seasons.

definitely not on a Blue Blood or football team of our caliber. We seen coaches getting canned after year 2 in some cases. Ouch!!!

 

[bshirt73]

I think there is a bit of truth to this. I do think Frost was building slowly for the future. I think coming in he had no clue the dumpster fire he was walking into on a player mental and emotional level. Once here he saw and realized that wasn't going to be fixed in a season or 2. Most players need to be his to erase the negative mindset and attitudes on the team. I think he didn't want' to "waste" his young guys especially those who weren't quite ready maybe physically or mentally. This would just add to the problems. So he played guys like Wandale who were strong enough physically and mentally. He saved/RS all others for the future. I honestly believe he knew these first 2 years could be rough but was willing to sacrifice short term for long.
Now that being said. I don't think he is safe for 5 years no matter what. I think he has to show he can put together a competent team this year and at the very very least get to bowl. Probably closer to 7 or 8 wins to take the heat off. If he has 4 losing season I would bet there is almost no chance he makes it to year 5. I wonder has there ever been a p5 coach (in the last 50 years) who has had 4 losing seasons and been retained for the 5th? To add to that question if there has did they suddenly flip it around year 5 or 6 and turn into a championship level coach. If no that probably says all we need to know about keep Frost into year 5 with 4 losing seasons.

A fine post sir!

It seems to me (my blind guess) is that his year four is where we should see some major real-deal progress. Sure, we should improve somewhat this year too but with the brutal schedule and still a quite young amount of difference makers.....I don't know. A good chance of playing most of the tough teams fairly well this year I hope.

Who knows? We'll see!

 

[Jhollenbeck41]

Well, Tom Osborne has made clear that he never had any illusions in the 1970s that he had a lifetime contract and that NU would be happy with whatever results he produced. I saw Tom Osborne speak at a dinner and he told a story about talking to someone in power (who went unnamed) about the upcoming 1976 Bluebonnet Bowl and he was told "It would be good if you won that" - Osborne got a warning shot like that when NU had a relatively disappointing season (they started the season ranked #1, but then went 8-3-1 in the regular season ending it ranked #13)

Ya know it would be really nice if we had the luxury right now of being disappointed with 8-10 win seasons. It’s good to have standards, also good to accept reality. If you want a comparison, my belief is you should always be good to people and myself and everyone else should never cheat, lie, or steal. That isn’t reality though. We can all continue to improve as people in society, including this football team. The reality of the situation is that we’re all gonna celebrate the big red going back to a bowl game. That obviously isn’t the standard and if we’re talking overall standards, that isn’t mine either. But that is reality whether you choose to accept it or not

 

[Jhollenbeck41]

"Let him learn." I would have loved my boss pay me $5 million and then say just go out there and learn on the job.

I’m sure you knew everything about your job in every single situation on day 1. I sure didn’t

 

[oldjar07]

There's no way in heck he survives 4 losing seasons. His seat is going to be extremely hot after 3, as it should. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I’m sure you knew everything about your job in every single situation on day 1. I sure didn’t

In most jobs there are resources to consult. Not so much in coaching.

Coaching to me is like a guy who day trades. You make gut decisions based on historical data and experience, but once you make the decision there isn't much of anything you can do to change it. So you live with the consequences and move on to the next trade or play.

 

[Wyldcard]

Why contemplate when it's not gonna happen

 

[kakdawg]

The general consensus is that Coach Frost would survive three losing seasons. We universally believe this a program overhaul. So, we have more patience. But Devaney went 9-2 in his first season at NU and he was also doing a complete rebuild, too.

Is it only about the contract? I expect Frost to turn the corner in the next season based on talent alone. However, if we are getting into hypotheticals, does Frost survive four losing seasons? That would be 5 wins or less in the next two seasons.

I


I'm gonna guess yes. Not sure I could find a way to justify it though. IF that were to happen I think he would have to fire at least half his coaching staff . Including guys like Chin, coach T, Dawson, and maybe even a guy like Ruud.


Just wild guesses on my part of course.


Holla

 

[kakdawg]

If he doesn’t go bowling next year I think chinander is out. Calling it now

I

I agree. I expect a jump from us on offense. Defensively I see more of the same I'm afraid. Not sure how many chances to Chin. Even at UCF his defenses were always the question marks. Plus if we are being honest the BIG is much too good of a defensive league to expect to.win without at least playing SOLID if not great defense. I don't think we have even been close to solid. That'll need to change soon.


Holla

 

[Oldie but goodie]

Surviving the fourth season is rare, but it happens...at Nebraska, too. Bill Jennings was fired after five straight losing seasons preceding the hiring of Bob Devaney.

Lovie Smith is going into his 5th season at Illinois despite having a losing season in the previous four years.

Derek Mason is currently entering his seventh season at Vanderbilt following six consecutive losing seasons. Vanderbilt has three other coaches who had at least five straight as well.

John Jardine had four straight at Wisconsin before going 7-4 in year five.

Bob Cummings at Iowa had five consecutive losing seasons.

Jim Wacker had five straight at Minnesota.

Greg Schiano at Rutgers (the first time they hired him) had four straight before going 7-5 in year four. Terry Shea also had five seasons at Rutgers with a losing record.

Northwestern's got four coaches who reached at least a fifth season after having a losing record in their first four years, including Dennis Green....yes, that Dennis Green.

Kevin Wilson, Cam Cameron, Lee Corso, and Bernie Crimmins each had at least five straight at Indiana.

Jim Colletto had five straight at Purdue.

Dan McCarney had five consecutive losing seasons at Iowa State before going 9-3 in year six.

Marvin Bass had four straight at South Carolina before going .500 in his fifth year.

Phil Cutchin at Oklahoma State had six straight.

Jack Curtice at Stanford had four straight and then broke even in year five.

It's not a distinguished list and there are likely more names on it, but it's happened...unlike the amount of money it would take to buyout Frost and Co. in two years being used in a buyout. If that were to happen it would be a list with only one name on it.

Shit, look at that list of schools, with a couple of exceptions, I don't want to be compared to any of those schools, have things gotten that bad?

 

[hedonistimpulse]

Oh where to begin. So if total wins is the barometer, Frost needs to win 10 games just to keep pace with Mike Riley.

Riley 19-19
Scott Frost 9-15

So there is that to start.

Brown went 1-10, 1-10 then then won 6 games in his 3rd year. So Mack Brown can turn a P5 program from 1-10 to 6-4-1 in 3 years but expecting Scott Frost to have a winning season in his 3rd year is asking too much? Brown can have a 5 game improvement from year two to year three but expecting frost to have a 1 game improvement is somehow absurd?

OK>......

I didn't say anything about expecting Frost to win 6 games being absurd. I simply pointed out that expecting Frost to be fired should he not being absurd and gave several reasons and examples supporting my thoughts - some recent, some historical.

I also graciously showed you an example of trajectory versus pace. What you're presenting with Brown is trajectory. What you're presenting with Riley is pace. I think it's fair to hope for a similar trajectory to Brown regardless of any failure to match the pace set by Riley. Understand now?

 

[hedonistimpulse]

A lot of awful situations illustrated. The 9-3 season by Dan McCarney was a good year. His college coach wasn't a good hire.

Some poor coaches and down programs illustrated.

Regardless, they're examples. I challenge anyone to provide an example of a coach fired with $25MM owed as would be the case with Frost after his fourth season.

 

[hedonistimpulse]

Shit, look at that list of schools, with a couple of exceptions, I don't want to be compared to any of those schools, have things gotten that bad?

There aren't any great teams on the list with the exception of Nebraska, so that's fair. I was shocked to see 9 of 14 B1G teams on the list, though.

Speaking of teams not on the list, aOSU isn't. I noticed while looking at their coaches that Ohio State has been ranked at some point by the AP Poll in every season since 1936 except for....1947, 1965, and and 1966. Very impressive statistic. That's the company I would prefer.

 

[HuskersWay]

Ya know it would be really nice if we had the luxury right now of being disappointed with 8-10 win seasons. It’s good to have standards, also good to accept reality. If you want a comparison, my belief is you should always be good to people and myself and everyone else should never cheat, lie, or steal. That isn’t reality though. We can all continue to improve as people in society, including this football team. The reality of the situation is that we’re all gonna celebrate the big red going back to a bowl game. That obviously isn’t the standard and if we’re talking overall standards, that isn’t mine either. But that is reality whether you choose to accept it or not

There's a big difference between expecting NU to be a top 10 team and not going along with the idea that Scott Frost should be able to survive seven straight losing seasons (as some of his biggest boosters have outright stated on this board). I haven't given up on Frost yet and due to the inexplicable extension Moos gave him, I actually expect Frost to be given five seasons no matter what.

 

[Jhollenbeck41]

In most jobs there are resources to consult. Not so much in coaching.

Coaching to me is like a guy who day trades. You make gut decisions based on historical data and experience, but once you make the decision there isn't much of anything you can do to change it. So you live with the consequences and move on to the next trade or play.

Honestly that’s how I make most of my life decisions, I go with my gut.

 

[Jhollenbeck41]

There's a big difference between expecting NU to be a top 10 team and not going along with the idea that Scott Frost should be able to survive seven straight losing seasons (as some of his biggest boosters have outright stated on this board). I haven't given up on Frost yet and due to the inexplicable extension Moos gave him, I actually expect Frost to be given five seasons no matter what.

I think we overall agree?

 

[Reditus]

He will get the full seven years that he is slated for. Can't afford to be paying multiple head coaches with the current situation we are in. Need to start "making a list" for both Moos and Frost if we have two more losing seasons though.

That is the way I look at it too. Nebraska needs to stick with it. I am in for the long haul. Can't keep starting over and chasing but will develop a short list like you say.

If you look at the other things besides W/L's Frost has shown himself to be fairly well-rounded and there are lots of pluses there. I haven't seen too many negatives and if I were too point to anything I think they are minor. I think you can say he has done a good job of being CEO/face of the program. Seems to have a decent relationship with media and fans. Understands this job (pluses and minuses) as he is from here so that makes him a great fit. He has a thick skin. He is smart&competive. Young. He is still growing into the job. Progam culture and discipline seem to be in good shape. Looks like he is willing to self scout and do what it takes to improve but still has core principals that he will stick too. I think he will get it done over time. Been around a lot of successful coaches & with his parents being coaches I think that has defined him. I am sure he will get it done. I'd be shocked if we don't see future improvement in W/L's. It took Bill McCartney and Bill Synder time to turn things around and they were a lot older/experienced. I think the vibe around the program is still positive. Frost is a confident guy and that rubs off on players.

 

[jflores]

Frost is getting at least five years I would imagine. Thought so before covid. Definitely think so now.

We were looking at potential ways to cut 20% weeks ago before anything was decided. Rainy day fund is down. Facilities on hold. Fan revenue likely to be down, still a question of how much tv contracts will actually be worth depending on what the B1G can field this fall.

I don't expect Moos or any native Nebraskan to throw Frost overboard and pay $30 million out in coaching buyouts and go find a new guy in those kind of conditions.

That said, with this schedule Frost needs OOC games this year. We're only slated to win like 6-7 this year? Maybe 8? I mean, 3 or 4 of those are supposed to be in the warm up gimmie games.

 

[John_J_Rambo]

Frost is getting at least five years I would imagine. Thought so before covid. Definitely think so now.

We were looking at potential ways to cut 20% weeks ago before anything was decided. Rainy day fund is down. Facilities on hold. Fan revenue likely to be down, still a question of how much tv contracts will actually be worth depending on what the B1G can field this fall.

I don't expect Moos or any native Nebraskan to throw Frost overboard and pay $30 million out in coaching buyouts and go find a new guy in those kind of conditions.

That said, with this schedule Frost needs OOC games this year. We're only slated to win like 6-7 this year? Maybe 8? I mean, 3 or 4 of those are supposed to be in the warm up gimmie games.

yea. I, too, fully expect those exact conditions to remain 2+ years from now.

 

[jflores]

yea. I, too, fully expect those exact conditions to remain 2+ years from now.

Its not so much that we won't have money in 2 years, but all the hoo ha this year is more or less a punt. Its a season full of spring games, minus the extraordinary attendance.

If you don't start the facility until next year, you are going to have a lot of folks that want to see what Frost can do with it. Which puts you into year 5 when he starts hawking that as a reality and beyond if you want to see what any of the players he nabs, actually shows up on campus.

We aren't going to open up the Taj Mahal of Nebraska football, and fire the last remaining Nebraska guy in the universe to celebrate it.

 

[John_J_Rambo]

Its not so much that we won't have money in 2 years, but all the hoo ha this year is more or less a punt. Its a season full of spring games, minus the extraordinary attendance.

If you don't start the facility until next year, you are going to have a lot of folks that want to see what Frost can do with it. Which puts you into year 5 when he starts hawking that as a reality and beyond if you want to see what any of the players he nabs, actually shows up on campus.

We aren't going to open up the Taj Mahal of Nebraska football, and fire the last remaining Nebraska guy in the universe to celebrate it.

yea okay. go tell the seniors this is a season full of spring games.

what a clueless post.

 

[jflores]

yea okay. go tell the seniors this is a season full of spring games.

what a clueless post.

I mean, in a given year the seniors don't really matter when it comes to what the fan base thinks of a coaching staff. No one cared what McKeon and those guys thought etc.

I happen to think a good chunk, if not most of the Nebraska fan base is going to give Frost mostly a pass this year. And even if they don't, like I said, I think in 2 years they'd have pause to kill the Nebraska Way at the facility unveiling.

 

[John_J_Rambo]

I happen to think a good chunk, if not most of the Nebraska fan base is going to give Frost mostly a pass this year.

I'm not sure you understand how things work around here, friend.

 

[Nebyank]

If not by year 4, then his seat would be extremely hot. Plus side is, I don’t see it coming to that. Dude is a young head coach and he makes mistakes and still learning but he is obviously a solid to good head coach and with the talent he’s bringing in, it’s only a matter of time before our Huskers field a solid to great team.

Bad head coaches don’t turn a 0-12 team into a 13-0 team that beat 4 Top 25 teams and one Top 10 team in the bowl game (that same Top 10 team barely missed out on being the SEC champs).

Frost has shown a willingness to make changes when they are needed. WR and OLB were weak links and Frost has addressed both spots. Special teams has been a problem and he is making moves in that area.
The offensive philosophy is going to be new and improved this year in my opinion. We will see more power football with reliance on an OL that is poised to deliver. Martinez will return to form after an off year and we will see more explosiveness than in the previous two years.
Defense is the huge key to a large improvement (9-10 wins large). There is talent on defense but it is mostly young and unproven. If things develop well on that side of the ball we should all feel a lot better come bowl time.

 

[jflores]

I'm not sure you understand how things work around here, friend.

Personally I think the whole discussion is moot. Unless gimmie games are taken away and they don't appear to be, I think Frost is bowl eligible this year. Whatever bowl eligible might mean in a covid context. It might work out to more practices, it might not happen this year. Who knows at this point.

I generally get a free away game or two with travel paid for by some booster friends of mine. The same folks who are helping to write those big checks to have the number one coaching buyout number in the last 20 years. From what I can see of that moneyed circle, there's not a lot of angst about throwing Frost overboard in the next year or two if we remain on the bubble.

Year 1 and 2 "cuz Riley" and Year 3 "cuz covid means we can't really prep and we have a really young team". So there's 3 of the 4 years that some folks are potentially handwaving away before we even begin this conversation.

I think more than anything there seems to be an appetite that Frost can be the guy, but we may have to bolt on more/different pieces if he's willing to evolve. Of which, this football Taj Mahal is one of those things, assistant coaches potentially in the future if we don't see upward movement, etc.

I'm in the boat that thinks he has a mandate for 5 from his handlers.

 

[Ripcord280]

Until the university releases a statement saying they're in economic distress and starts putting major projects on hold and says they're likely going to lose millions in revenue this upcoming season, I see no reason why we shouldn't expect them to not at least contemplate paying the roughly $30MM to buyout Frost and his coaches (which would be about 30% larger than any buyout in the history of the sport) and then pay another $6-12MM to hire a new coach and staff in the next couple of years should the team stumble.

If the athletic department says anything like that though, someone let me know.

Maybe it is because I am just an Iowa farm boy, but I am having a lot of trouble understanding the triple negatives in your post.

 

[Toto99]

My biggest issue with SF is he has 3 losing seasons in 4 years as a HC. With each year, it becomes clearer that 2017 was a one-off and the other years are a better indicator of his coaching chops.

 

[phoenix4nu]

My biggest issue with SF is he has 3 losing seasons in 4 years as a HC. With each year, it becomes clearer that 2017 was a one-off and the other years are a better indicator of his coaching chops.

You signed up here just to say that?

 

[Toto99]

You signed up here just to say that?

That's all you've got? Does anyone think his staff tweaks this off-season will be enough to move the needle? He's all in on 2AM and the DC post remains problematic. SF has made his bed, we saw how changing DCs between year 2 and 3 worked out for Riley. Heck, that was even after signing a well respected guy at the time in Diaco who was a splash hire.

Will the team be better in 2020? It remains to be seen but the final record will likely not be pretty. I think Scott is the only guy who could've survived back to back losing seasons. He's losing the limited D1 talent in the state because the the program isn't winning. The program has essentially been on probation from the standpoint of bowls since 2017.

 

[phoenix4nu]

That's all you've got? Does anyone think his staff tweaks this off-season will be enough to move the needle? He's all in on 2AM and the DC post remains problematic. SF has made his bed, we saw how changing DCs between year 2 and 3 worked out for Riley. Heck, that was even after signing a well respected guy at the time in Diaco who was a splash hire.

Will the team be better in 2020? It remains to be seen but the final record will likely not be pretty. I think Scott is the only guy who could've survived back to back losing seasons. He's losing the limited D1 talent in the state because the the program isn't winning. The program has essentially been on probation from the standpoint of bowls since 2017.

Go back to your own board loser.

 

[Reditus]

I think he is making progress in the OL and DL lines. Those positions take longer to develop and they are the key.

 

[Red I 73]

Well, that sounds about right to me. An improved OLine would surely help a lot is my guess. Special teams....I'm clueless.

The fact that Cam has a year under his belt should help. I would guess that should add a couple more wins to the year alone. Any other changes to the ol will be a plus for next year.

 

[red scowl]

I would disagree that he only controls a few of all the things wrong with the program, but I am interested to hear what I could be missing.

I misspoke. He doesn't control the location or population of Nebraska which is an obvious disadvantage. He doesn't control the teams we play in conference. I will come back with some more.

It's time for Frost to win, but If he doesn't, I would give him another year.

 

[headcard]

 

[bigboxes]

View embedded media

Be nice.

 

[JoelBittner]

If it takes us sucking for three straight years just to rebuild our program, I am all for that. I don't think I could stomach a fourth straight 4-5 win season. I'd probably start watching figure skating.... NOT.

What about naked figure skating? Type of skating where ladies with big cans can participate! Yeah, if I can get this sport off the ground and on Netflix I'll have more money than Bloomberg