The on-side kick was not the deciding play in the game. It didn't help, but not what turned the game.
Going for it on 4th and goal on the 2-yard line instead of kicking the FG. That would have put them within one point and about 61 seconds before the half. Instead, Bama gets the ball, scores a TD in 51 seconds, and has an 11-point lead at the half.
I understood why he did it and did not agree with it, but he knows his team better than me. Up to that point, K State had converted 2 4th downs on that drive and ate 10 minutes and 30 seconds of clock. They had a solid game plan and it worked great up to that point...
He went for the on-side kick to try and steal a possession, which they desperately needed. When they work, you are a genius, when they don't you are the goat. High risk, high reward. He knew the chances were favorable for Alabama to go up 18 points if they scored on the opening drive. KSU's M.O. is long time-consuming drives to keep the opposition on the sideline.