What will the selection committee do?

Discussion in 'Husker Baseball Board' started by k9_r, Apr 26, 2015.

  1. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Fact is none of us know and any one of our opinions is as valid and any other. The only thing certain is that there is a lot of baseball to be played before the committee even begins. But there are some things more likely to happen than not.

    The committee has decades long history of rewarding teams with high win counts and have a stellar RPI all taken against a tough SOS. They do this over and over again nearly without fail. It's not like they trip right down the RPI ladder with their selections but they come very close to it. The occasional RPI outlier makes it in as national seed or regional host but you can see it is just one or two who usually get in the top 16. They don't wrestle all that much with the main body of at large bids. The go with top records, top RPIs and SOSs. Makes their work easier to explain and draws the least complaints.

    Conference record? The ACC figures to have seven teams in. Right now three of them have a .500 or worse record in conference and at least a couple will still have a losing record on selection day. Happens every year.

    Clemson will not be one of them in even though they have a winning conference record. Why not? Because their RPI is 81. The RPI gods won't let them in. Clemson is out. All seven ACC teams in have an RPI 38 or better. Virginia figures to be in and they are .417 in conference right now. But they have an RPI 33. They're in.

    SEC? Same thing. The SEC figures to get nine teams in. Two or three of them will have losing conference records on selection day. Happens. Every. Year.

    So what about Nebraska? Today 30-16, RPI 20, SOS 18.

    Let's look at the Big Ten. Final records, RPIs and SOSs are from Warren Nolan Prediction Tables. List is numbered by expected B1G tournament seeding.

    1. Illinois - 42-10, RPI 28, SOS 162 (That's right, 162 SOS)
    2. Iowa - 36-13, 27/113
    3. OSU - 39-14, 16/79
    4. Maryland - 38-18, 40/100
    5. MSU - 34-20, 29/49
    6. Michigan - 33-23, 78/131
    7. Nebraska - 37-19, RPI 19, SOS 20
    8. Minnesota - 21-29, 130/86
    If we get four bids it will come down to Maryland, MSU and us. It will most likely be us. Five bids and it will be between Maryland and MSU. I like MSU in that choice.

    The committee won't care about conference records. They never do.

    And this is all just my opinion.

    Of course, conference tourney results will add to the picture and, yes, I have a opinion about those results too.
     
    1 k9_r, Apr 26, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2015
  2. IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life

    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2003
    Messages:
    125
    Likes Received:
    42
    I remember in 2013 Michigan State was 33-17 with an RPI of 42. They were 12-9 in the B1G and for all purposes should have made a regional. They were left out because they didn't make the B1G tournament. That was when it was still six teams I believe.
     
  3. coolonetoo

    coolonetoo Sophomore
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 12, 2003
    Messages:
    1,106
    Likes Received:
    535
    That's the perfect bubble resume so no complaints either way. If Nebraska's RPI is around 40 at the end of the season it probably won't make a regional. And it won't deserve to because that means it will have lost a bunch of games to Purdue and Northwestern.
     
  4. bigredrl

    bigredrl Blackshirt
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2002
    Messages:
    3,379
    Likes Received:
    1,175
    Location:
    Wichita, KS
    I don't thnk you can just look at conference records and say the committee never cares abou them. While on the surface it may look as if they dont (when looking at past years) I think you really have to dive into those records on a team by team basis before you can say that. I suspect some many of those teams had some bad losses, but also had some very positive wins against upper level teams in their league which bolstered the committee's thought process.

    There is still a lot that can happen but right now a likely scenario is we are a 7 seed in an 8 team tournament with a very poor record against what will probably be the top 4 seeds. Combine that with a conference that traditionally has not been strong and I beleive we have a very tough road ahead of us to get in
     
  5. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Yes, they had an RPI 42. That's a long way from Nebraska's RPI 20. And MSU had an SOS 147 which is a looooooooong way from our SOS 18. They also had a very spotty record of 7 wins vs top teams and 10 losses vs bad teams, two losses vs very bad teams.

    The committee had no problem excluding them on RPI & SOS reasons alone, plus the spotty record.

    Can we remember that there are just 33 at large spots available? An RPI 42 won't do without extraordinary circumstances to consider.
     
  6. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    2014 NCAA field of 64. The top 37 RPIs all got in.

    The highest RPI left out was W Virginia. RPI 38, SOS 28. 28-26 record, 9-14 in conference (6th place), 13-21 vs good teams, 15-5 vs bad teams.

    Many bad RPIs got in by virtue of an automatic qualifying bid. They won their conference tournaments.

    Any 20-ish RPI will get in b/c it always does. And that RPI with 35+ wins takes the choice right out of the committee's hands.
     
  7. Roscoe 12oz

    Roscoe 12oz Offensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2004
    Messages:
    8,044
    Likes Received:
    15
    Let's hope they don't use the "eyeball test"
     
  8. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    ^^^^Sez the guy who is uber pissed off we got swept by Iowa. I mean, me too, I hate it. But the committee won't be pissed off by it. They are an RPI robot. Can't help themselves.
     
  9. huskerbaseball13

    huskerbaseball13 Nebraska Legend
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2003
    Messages:
    29,629
    Likes Received:
    4,325
    The committee will look at it as another 3 losses to a top 50 RPI team which puts us at 2-11 on the year now against the "elite" RPI teams. As Kendall Rogers pointed out on twitter....that's awful.
     
  10. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Kendall Rogers is not on the committee. He has Missouri safely in. Missouri has an RPI 51 and is predicted to finish RPI 60. We'll see how that works out for KR.
     
  11. huskerbaseball13

    huskerbaseball13 Nebraska Legend
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2003
    Messages:
    29,629
    Likes Received:
    4,325
    I could be wrong but the regional projections are based on TODAY....not what they think is going to happen a month from now. As of today, Missouri would be in...I don't see the committee leaving out a team 3 games over .500 in the SEC. Rogers also has NU in as of now....but he's right, our record vs top 50 RPI teams is awful and will no doubt be used against us come May if in fact we are still on the bubble. Take care of business vs Purdue/NW and we should be okay, if not...we may be in trouble.
     
  12. Roscoe 12oz

    Roscoe 12oz Offensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2004
    Messages:
    8,044
    Likes Received:
    15
    How was I "uber pissed off". I barely even paid attention to the series, figured they'd lose 2/3. Guess I was wrong.
     
  13. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Oops, sorry. Must have transferred my own butt hurt to you. Projection, right?
     
  14. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
    Moderator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2010
    Messages:
    17,749
    Likes Received:
    13,954
    My worry isn't getting in at this point (ask me again in two weeks), but rather would we have a strong enough team not to go 2 and BBQ in a regional. Its always important to get into a regional but this teams mentality is a little down right now. A team that naturally struggles at the plate can't afford a bruised mentality. I hope we destroy our competition the next two weeks not just for RPI reasons but we badly need some confidence back. Even our pitchers are pitching frustrated and it shows.

    Best place to start is with Creighton Tomorrow night and then Northwestern and Purdue to follow.
     
  15. bigredrl

    bigredrl Blackshirt
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2002
    Messages:
    3,379
    Likes Received:
    1,175
    Location:
    Wichita, KS
    I think 37-19 is optimistic at this point. Also dont understand how our RPI improves to 19 (currently 20) with both Northwestern and Purdue on the remaining schedule. Michigan is out so not a a problem. Most the B1G gets in is 5 teams (and I have doubts about that many). That leaves a decision for the committe between NU and MSU (estimated).

    Hope your right and they are a slave to RPI. Might be the only + we have over Sparty.
     
    icu81222 likes this.
  16. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Here's maybe the best way to look at what the committee will do. There are 64 spots but 31 of them go to automatic qualifiers. That leaves 33 spots for the committee to fill. But they don't have to settle for the top 33 RPIs to fill the spots, they can reach further. A lot further.

    A dozen+ of the AQ teams will have nice RPIs and are entitled to a spot and they'll get one but it won't be one of the 33 spots. Their place will be in addition to the 33 spots. They will move the RPI bubble for the 33 at large teams.

    17 or 18 AQs will have bad to horrible RPIs. Subtract the 18 bad ones from 64 and you see that the committee can comfortably reach out to the 46th RPI. And they do just that.

    Can you see what I mean? When 13 of the AQ teams have excellent RPIs and they have 33 at large spots to fill, the committee can take the 1-33 RPI bubble and slide it out to the 14-46 area. If they were strictly an RPI slave, everyone from RPI 1-46 gets in the field. Some by AQ and the rest by at large bids.

    13 AQs with good RPIs plus 33 at large spots equals 46. Add the 18 bad AQ teams and, voila, 64 team field. No problem.

    Fact is the committee routinely grabs the top 35-ish RPIs, finds the non AQs of that group, and slots them in with out much thought. That typically leaves them with 6-12 spots to fill. That's where their work begins.

    The committee will work hard swapping resumes of teams with 35 to 60 RPI to fill those last places. The highest at large RPI in the last two years was New Mexico. 2013 they got in with an RPI 60. In the last two years there have been only seven teams get in with an RPI higher than 46.

    For two years, if one had a top 60 RPI, they had a chance. Top 45 RPI and they had a good chance. Top 35 RPI and it's an excellent chance. Only two top 35 did not get in these past two years and we were one of them. 2013, RPI 31, sub .500 record. Didn't qualify by record. The other was Notre Dame, 34 RPI. Maybe their ten losses to bad teams doomed them. Three of the losses were to horrible teams.

    We are RPI 20. That's a lock. Beat Creighton! Beat Northwestern! GBR
     
    16 k9_r, Apr 27, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2015
  17. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    And that's exactly where I'm at. This team has been beaten up by five of the best B1G teams and they have to be feeling it. And they still have to play the top team.

    My biggest worry is, now that we're getting two bad B1G teams, can we get back to finding our winning ways. Can we readjust our mentality and come out with the best attitude. We so need that.

    Regionals are all about matchups. Think I'll wait to see our regional opponents before I get too deep in worry there.
     
  18. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Yeah, I don't know how Warren Nolan gets to those predictions but it's the only tool I could find. Looking ahead I do think we can get to 35 wins rather easily though.

    And, looking around, I would not be surprised at all if the B1G gets six bids. Six teams certainly have the RPI for it.
     
  19. HuskerSoCal

    HuskerSoCal Newbie
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2012
    Messages:
    54
    Likes Received:
    11
    K9_r - best analysis I've seen and it should put this thread to bed. Rather than worrying about getting into the field, we need to get hot going into the B1G tourney. Time to light a fire and get hot at the right time, head into the big dance on a roll, ala KC Royals last year!
     
  20. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Thanks.

    Yes, we're in barring a total crash and burn job. Just need to win big vs these easier teams. Gotta do that.
     
  21. HuskerCubs

    HuskerCubs First Team All-Big Ten
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2002
    Messages:
    3,596
    Likes Received:
    2,383

    Let's not forget that this Husker team while is playing a a tougher schedule than most it is also playing in a conference that has not had any respect for a few decades. If the committee takes 3 B1G teams then the Huskers are likely left out no matter what our rpi and sos is.

    The three teams ahead of us all brow beat us so far this season and are holding their own so far against the rest of the B1G. The two sweeps and 1-2 record against the other are going to be hinderances for this team making the tourney. And any fool can see we don't have a lineup to compete for this tournament and they wont take the risk of Nebraska playing as poorly as they have so far.

    All of this is mute though if we don't really take 8 of 9 on the way out at least
     
  22. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Well I suppose it's possible the Big Ten just gets three bids but if that happens it will fly in the face of long standing committee practices.

    This is what I've been trying to explain, right? The committee always takes high RPI teams. I can't find an example where a top 30 team was left out. I looked for it but it's not showing up.

    The reason the B1G has decades of no respect is because they have decades of bad RPIs. One or two good RPI teams a year for decades. This year it's different. This year the B1G had six high RPI teams. Four in the top 30 and two more in the top 40.

    These four or five new high RPIs were taken from conferences like the B12, PAC12, Big West, Sun Belt and SEC. This year, those conferences don't have so many high RPI teams. We took them away.

    It's almost certain the committee will stick to their ways and take the high RPI teams once again. Don't be surprised if we get six bids this year. That's the kind of year the B1G is having.
     
  23. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Also, it's very, very probable that Nebraska makes the B1G tournament even if we get swept at Illinois and go 3-3 vs NW/Purdue.

    Right now we are in 7th place just ahead of MN and IN. We have nine games left; they have just six left. In order for both of them to pass us (moving us to 9th place), we would have to be swept by Illinois plus lose both the NW and Purdue series and they would both need to win their two remaining series.
    MN - @ Iowa, home with MSU
    IN - @ Maryland, home with OSU

    Good luck with that. We just need five wins to make the B1G tournament. And we have nine games left to get those five wins. Four wins would most likely do it.
     
  24. Kleitus

    Kleitus Newbie
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 31, 2001
    Messages:
    26
    Likes Received:
    0
    the only time they leave out top 30 rpi's is if they are in the SEC and don't make the conference tournament.

    that's it.

    we're in barring total collapse against purdue and northwestern.
     
  25. HuskerCubs

    HuskerCubs First Team All-Big Ten
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2002
    Messages:
    3,596
    Likes Received:
    2,383

    I understand all of this (and kudos for doing your diligence to back your position on the rpi thing) and I am not being a pessimist but there are faults with this team especially in the batting order and it's starting to become glaring. I can say that I can see a precedent being set because of the lack of overall respect of the B1G for the past couple of decades if this Husker team continues to slide. Losing 2 of 3 or getting swept the last weekend of the year could be problematic is all I am saying. Especially if they go 4-6 over these last 10 games.
     
  26. coolonetoo

    coolonetoo Sophomore
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 12, 2003
    Messages:
    1,106
    Likes Received:
    535
    Assuming k9_r is wrong about RPI ruling (which he's not) isn't it just as likely the committee uses this opportunity to promote northern baseball and the Big Ten gets six bids? It would be one thing if the conference was moving from a 1-2 bid league to a 2-4 bid. Having at least six quality teams means the committee has to sit up and take notice.

    Anyway, the history of the league getting 1-2 bids is no longer relevant. Three teams have been added in the last three years, two of which (Nebraska, Maryland) are contenders. Unless the addition of good programs causes the rest of the conference to tank--the actual effect is the opposite--the number of bids was bound to go up.
     
    26 coolonetoo, Apr 28, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2015
    k9_r likes this.
  27. coolonetoo

    coolonetoo Sophomore
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 12, 2003
    Messages:
    1,106
    Likes Received:
    535
    Of course NU is in trouble if they circle the drain to end the season. The point being made is that an RPI around 20 is a lock to make a regional. A 4-6 finish to the season won't produce that kind of RPI.
     
    k9_r likes this.
  28. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    I know and I personally think pessimism about our chances is justified. Finishing 4-6 could happen to us if we don't come together and get back to winning ways.

    A final 34-22 record would crush our lofty RPI. We have to get to 35 wins to stay in the top 30. We need five more wins and at least two of them must come at home. Three home wins would really help. Seven+ losses and we plummet all the way down near 50 RPI. There is a path to the bottom.

    Our SOS is 18 right now but it will automatically drop to ~30. When NW and Purdue get added to our record - SOS will head south. The B1G tournament will boost SOS a bit and we'll likely finish out at ~ 25 SOS.

    Let me clear up any confusion I may have left out there. This thread has been about what the committee will do and how they do it. It's not about what Nebraska will do. When I climb into the 'committee' box and look around this is what I come up with. If I climb over into the 'Nebraska' box there are other things to look at. Over there one can see that there is a path to the bottom.

    Having said that, I do think we'll get 6 or 7 more wins plus 1 or 2 in the conference tourney and end with a 20-ish RPI. We're certainly not a lock to get there but that RPI is a lock to get a bid.
     
  29. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Correct.
     
  30. icu81222

    icu81222 Newbie
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2008
    Messages:
    46
    Likes Received:
    8
    I'm not sure about 6 bids but the B1G has earned some respect this year. Lot's of quality wins outside the conference.

    Maryland came in very highly thought of and are now going to finish 3rd at best. Likely lower. That carries a lot of weight. Alot more than if they were already in the B1G in the past. It provides a barometer for the league.

    I am rrealy curious how far the Corn Huskers RPI drops due to the teams they finish out with. Particularly if they don't sweep Purdue and Northwestern. Iowa lost 1 to NU and their RPI plummeted big time.
     
  31. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Huskers have ten left. Home with Purdue (3), away at NW (3), Illinois (3) and Creighton (1).

    Tell me how they finish and I'll calculate the ~RPI.
     
  32. huskerbaseball13

    huskerbaseball13 Nebraska Legend
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2003
    Messages:
    29,629
    Likes Received:
    4,325
    From Boyds RPI Needs report...NU needs essentially 5 wins to finish out the regular season in the top 32 RPI. Needless to say, if we can't get 5 wins with Purdue and NW left on the schedule then we aren't and don't deserve to be a regional team.

    Nebraska

    Nebraska Remaining: 3 home, 10 road, 0 neutral
    Current RPI: 17
    ROWP: 0.575

    Top 45:

    0 home wins, 3 road wins
    1 home wins, 2 road wins
    2 home wins, 1 road wins
    3 home wins, 0 road wins

    Top 32:

    0 home wins, 5 road wins
    1 home wins, 4 road wins
    2 home wins, 3 road wins
    3 home wins, 1 road wins

    Top 16:

    0 home wins, 9 road wins
    1 home wins, 8 road wins
    2 home wins, 6 road wins
    3 home wins, 5 road wins

    Top 8:

    1 home wins, 10 road wins
    2 home wins, 9 road wins
    3 home wins, 8 road wins
     
  33. huskerbaseball13

    huskerbaseball13 Nebraska Legend
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2003
    Messages:
    29,629
    Likes Received:
    4,325
    Just noticed....this was before Iowa so I'm not sure what it is now. Probably still need 5 wins to finish out the year in the top 32 RPI.
     
  34. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    That report shows just how close we were to national seed. Need 3 home wins and 8 road wins. Sadly, that opportunity has passed. We only have 7 road games left.

    I can tell you that if we win out we'll end with a top 10 RPI.
     
  35. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    I calculate that 5 wins will put us ~30 RPI.
     
  36. icu81222

    icu81222 Newbie
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2008
    Messages:
    46
    Likes Received:
    8
    I was thinking that UN should win 5 of 6 vs Purdue and NU. Get swept by Illinois and beat Creighton.

    It wouldn't surprise me that much to see 4 of 6 vs PU and NU but doubt it.
     
  37. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Those six wins should make it ~ 25 RPI. Lose one each vs NW and PU more like 30 RPI.
     
  38. coolonetoo

    coolonetoo Sophomore
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 12, 2003
    Messages:
    1,106
    Likes Received:
    535
    Nebraska's RPI is now 14. Warren Nolan is predicting a 7-2 finish (13-11 final conference record) and 12 RPI. I personally think 6-3 is more likely but that would probably still keep the RPI under 20, wouldn't it, k9_r? Assuming two wins at Northwestern, three against Purdue and one at Illinois...
     
  39. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,714
    Likes Received:
    3,318
    Let me get back to you on this. Our past opponents are having a terrific night. One game still out (Fullerton/USC) but out of 12 games only two lost tonight. Creighton (heeheehee) and KSU who lost to Minnesota.

    Many other games around the country are still out and some of them will affect our SOS. Huge move in SOS tonight boosted our RPI. Will likely settle back some.

    BTW, got no idea how Nolan predicts our final SOS at 11. NW?Purdue will drag us down pretty good.
     
  40. Kleitus

    Kleitus Newbie
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 31, 2001
    Messages:
    26
    Likes Received:
    0
    btw, our predicted rpi (going 7-2 down the stretch) is now 11.

    in other words... even if we go 5-4, we're in.

    losing to northwestern (rpi 135) won't hurt us as much as it would a few weeks ago. losing to purdue will.

    florida gulf coast now has a top 100 rpi, as does byu. yes, we're 2-11 against the top 50 but we're 17-1 against the 50-100. some of that is fluke either way and the committee will know that.

    fairly likely if we take 2-3 against illinois (8-1 down the stretch) and make the final in the conference tourney we're still host material. stronger conference really helping us this year.
     

Share This Page