way too early, somewhat realistic 2020 projections
- Thread starter IUHusker
- Start date
Well at least he's learned to wear his jersey right-side out.
The prediction you call moronic is what has happened for the two seasons he has coached here, so right now that is the norm until Frost changes that.
Perfect logic. I also think there will be more people who will become ill with the Coronavirus, so obviously that makes me excited. I think politicians will continue to go to Washington earning $100,000 per year and walk out multi-millionaires - that just makes me warm inside.
I'm going to be pretty disappointed if we don't start 7-0. That's not hype. That's where expectations should be in Year 3 with the recruiting the coaches have done, and our schedule through the 1st seven games.
If we lose to Purdue coming out of the gate, at home, with them having a new DC, and it being Diaco, I'm going to lose a lot more confidence in this staff's abilities to coach.
If we lose to Purdue coming out of the gate, at home, with them having a new DC, and it being Diaco, I'm going to lose a lot more confidence in this staff's abilities to coach.
The biggest disappointment for me these last two seasons is in SF. He made coaching decisions that lead to losses and other times he didn’t coach up his players in other situations that lead to losses. Most of the close losses are on Frost.
I’m on the 6-6 train until proven otherwise.
I’m on the 6-6 train until proven otherwise.
Just for the record you were one of the posters up in arms about the Top 25 ranking from ESPN, right? So in your world, worst possible scenario is "likely" and everything else is "hype". Sounds like a wonderful existence.
So if Purdue was getting the Top 25 love Nebraska is getting would you day it was hype or realistic?
they have proven to be a 4-6 win club under Brohm, so far. I would expect them to be a 6 win club again. Wouldn’t you? I don’t expect them to win 8 or 9 and be in the top 20. So if they were to get top 25 ranking from ESPN FPI, I would say meh looks like hype and over ranking.
but that’s just me.
Illinois won't be a toss game. They are losing a ton and will be shifting their offense behind a dual threat QB.
It already is Mr. Second Guesser. Let things play out this Spring before grabbing your life jacket.
I would not throw a complete bitch fit about it, no. Especially if I were a Purdue fan, but that's just me. It's a really odd place we are at as Nebraska fans, when any positive comment or report is considered "hype" or "kool aide" and is met with vitriol. Yet, many of our own fans think it perfectly fine to bad mouth any and everything Nebraska football, like that makes them enlightened somehow, it is truly strange. I guarantee that if a practice report came out about a player doing well we would immediately see comments like: "shut up and play", "no more hype", blah, blah, blah.
BTW, Purdue was in the Sports Illustrated "Way too early Top 25"
https://www.si.com/college/2020/01/15/early-top-25-rankings-clemson-ohio-state-alabama
When you don't possess elite talent or lack a great team with extensive experience, games are usually won and lost due to matchups.
I think most people would agree Cincinnati will have a better team than Purdue. However, I think Purdue will give Nebraska tougher matchup problems than Cincinnati.
By that measure, a team like Cincinnati plays into Nebraska's strength. If you line up every opponent on the schedule, look at offensive talent, scheme, personnel, and QB play, the Bearcats are bottom 3rd on the schedule.
They want to play a 24-21 type game, and while their defense is good, it's not Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Minnesota good.
Purdue will struggle defensively in week one, but I bet they score 30+. That will put a lot of pressure on Nebraska.
I think most people would agree Cincinnati will have a better team than Purdue. However, I think Purdue will give Nebraska tougher matchup problems than Cincinnati.
By that measure, a team like Cincinnati plays into Nebraska's strength. If you line up every opponent on the schedule, look at offensive talent, scheme, personnel, and QB play, the Bearcats are bottom 3rd on the schedule.
They want to play a 24-21 type game, and while their defense is good, it's not Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Minnesota good.
Purdue will struggle defensively in week one, but I bet they score 30+. That will put a lot of pressure on Nebraska.
I don’t know if I would go that far, I know coach frost has made some head scratching calls, I just remember what TO once said, if properly executed a fullback dive could go 80 yards for a touchdown. Everyone is looking at the shuffle pass against Purdue, do you know TO called that play in a game and it scored. My biggest concern is why weren’t the players executing the plays, I saw a lot of miss blocks especially with the tight ends and wide receivers then you throw in hixons struggles. Not good. In some cases I don’t know if any play call would have worked. I want to see way less confusion with the players and play with fire. In some games like Minnesota and Purdue they were flat. And yes it’s also on the coaches to have them prepared and fired up. And I definitely don’t give Adrian a pass. Hopefully in the off season he’s learning how to read a zone defense
Last edited:
So are you saying that if you are a fan of the team you have to believe anything written that is positive?
Yes, if a practice report came out and said anything positive it would probably be met with some reluctance. How many times have we heard, so and so had a great week of practice, this is the best Monday practice we had, since last Monday, etc etc. So at this point, I take the practice reports with a boulder of salt. I take the reports of others watching the practices more seriously, but unfortunately most practices are closed. I assume because Frost wants to control the narrative. His program, his call.
Regardless, after the past 5+ years of underperforming and poor records, people are going to want to start to see results before they believe in what is written about the team.
If you want to believe the reports, by all means knock yourself out.
But, unfortunately, for me, the realistic view of this program is .500, +/- 1 game. Anything above that is hype and kool aid.
P.S. I still don't think Purdue is a top 25 team just because SI says they are.
I hear you, I just feel Frost was stubborn in some games the past two seasons where he chose to stay the course instead of making a player change or a play call that may have went against his philosophy, but could have made the difference between a win and a loss. The bottom line is, he gets paid to win games.
No, I can make my own judgements. I also don't look at it the same way you do. I enjoy reading the practice reports and take them for what they are. It's not a matter of "believing" them or not, I just take them with a grain of salt, no one is lying to you when they write so and so has improved or whatever, they are just sharing what they have seen or been told.
In my view, we are probably a 7-5 type team. I think we are good enough to beat mediocre teams and probably not good enough to expect to beat good teams with any consistency, yet. I think we will overall be better that the last two years, but I still have us pegged that way. And while I may enjoy reading that Piper is making a push at LG, or that Manning is a great perimeter blocker, or whatever, my opinion probably isn't going to change until I see otherwise. But I also see no reason to get all pissed off about the reports, because I enjoy the access and like reading them.
So if you, like me, view this team as a 7-5 type team. Why would 8-4 type predictions be considered "hype", but a 4-8 prediction is perfectly "realistic"?
Because we each have our own view of realistic. No different than you believing an 8-4 season is realistic and 4-8 is being a pessimist and you getting pissed off because someone believes 4-8 is perfectly realistic.
I have a hard time seeing 8 wins on the schedule, so that makes 9 wins completely out of the realm of possibility. Doesn't mean it can't happen, it just means I can't see it happening.
Why don’t we all cut to the chase and just agree now that 5-6 wins in year 3 would not be great but completely understandable given that damn Mike Riley and that anything more than 6 wins should garner national coach of the year consideration given the magnitude of this rebuild the likes of which hasn’t been seen since Marshall in the 1970s
Last edited:
I agree with you. 5-6 wins should be unacceptable. The rest of your statement I don't care for, but 7 should be the floor this year. Will it happen I guess we will see.. If it is another 5-6 year season real questions need to start being asked. Year 3 for me is when you should start to see things turn around.
Here's my take:
1. We'll be a 7-10 point favorite over Purdue barring injuries to key players.
2. This team is still very young. If they navigate the early schedule OK they will be much improved by the back end.
3. Cincinnati will be tough. That game might be a pick-em in Vegas.
4. Our defense will be much faster this year.
5. We must have 2 certain wide receivers be eligible.
6. Our coaches must coach better. No more bonehead calls.
GO BIG RED!
1. We'll be a 7-10 point favorite over Purdue barring injuries to key players.
2. This team is still very young. If they navigate the early schedule OK they will be much improved by the back end.
3. Cincinnati will be tough. That game might be a pick-em in Vegas.
4. Our defense will be much faster this year.
5. We must have 2 certain wide receivers be eligible.
6. Our coaches must coach better. No more bonehead calls.
GO BIG RED!
So then...losing to Iowa 2 years in a row by 3 points each year means Iowa should go 6-6 or 7-5 next year too. OK, got it.
One would hope that a program that has finished in the Top 25 in recruiting for 5 or 6 years in a row, and hasn't been involved in any major plane crashes, would be able to do better than a team that started the next season with just their existing mascot, band, and cheerleaders back from the previous year. But ya never know..
I know, I'm going to get skewered for being callous to the events of Marshall's team, after getting all over others for minimizing the deaths from previous viruses. Guilty as charged. My only argument would be there were much fewer deaths with the Marshall crash than hundreds of thousands. But that's still no excuse on my part.
But, FPI would never ever put purdue top twenty five with the players they have, because FPI rates those players, not the hype.
That doesn't mean any given team can over or underperform according to talent on team, but FPI only uses past performance in a smaller multiplier, not the main one by far.
Now we have 25th best talent, even though weve outrecruited that number under this staff, but other starters hold us from being a 17-20th rated team and past performance adds up to 25th.
But it isn't hype,its formula, and fairly successful as a whole, less so per school.
I believe the Purdue spread will be closer to 3-4 points. WR David Bell is a nightmare to cover, probable 1st team all-B10, possible All-American. Expect 50+ passes.
Last edited:
Don't forget Rondale. The big tens only unanimous true freshman All-american.
Bell tore his Labrum in week 3 last season and played on that as well. So he wasn't healthy.
Purdue WR room is loaded.
Have to have a QB that can get it to them. Also with Diaco, are you going to be able to overcome giving up 40+ a game.
I'm not super concerned with QB. Purdue had 3 different QB's throw for 400 yards last year. One was a redshirt freshman, one was a walk-on sophmore.
Defense will be better than last year. Sounds like they are switching to a 3-4, but will be multiple fronts in look. Purdue played more 3-4 in Holt's first year and had a good defense, then switch to a 4-3 and it was bad. I think Purdue is better off in a 3-4 base moving into this next season to be honest. I know Diaco was bad in Nebraska, but he was average to good everywhere else and he has some really good pieces to work with, so I have hope.
We husker fans are great at optimism and hope and prior to 2015 it worked out more often than it didn’t.
good luck next season after the first game.
Diaco was god awful at Nebraska there is no doubt. His teams at Notre Dame had a lot of elite talent, but did give up a ton of yards. It's hard to really look at Connecticut and La Tech as they don't play anyone and he was medicore at Cincy. I guess we will see what happens at Purdue, but he doesn't have elite athletes there. There are a few decent players, but the way he coaches, he needs elite athletes.
I'll take your word that Purdue had 3 QB's throw for 400 yards, but they also chucked it around because that was your strength and you absolutely could not run the ball so that has skewed the numbers. No doubt Purdue has elite WR talent, but the QB's are just meh and lately your QB's have been like glass and seem to get a least 1 hurt a year. I know you love your team and I'm all for that, but pump the breaks on Purdue. We should know at Nebraska. We look good on paper every year and pump ourselves up and then we suck. The facts are that Brohm has been going backwards.. 7 wins to 6 to 4. Your 4 would have been 3 if NU didn't suck so bad. Call it injuries, call it youth, call it whatever you want, you still have to win games and that isn't happening right now at Purdue. Is Brohm better than Hazell? Light years ahead, but still isn't translating to wins. We have the same thing here. Do I think Frost is better than Riley? Yes, I think he is light years ahead, but that isn't playing out on the field.
I'm pumping the breaks on NU until we actually prove something on the field. We are better across the board than Purdue at every level except for WR, and should win comfortably but I guess we will see if that actually happens. We could easily lose and it will more have to do with the head man and the problems of developing players as well as coaching etc. Our fan base sounds a lot like you where we make a ton of excuses on why our golden boy is playing out like we thought he would. I'm still optimistic as I thought it would be a 3-5 year build for sure, but like I said, pump the brakes on the level Purdue is at.
Haha Purdue fans learned their lesson about optimism last season. Everyone got hurt and the freshman team could only win 4. Good news is everyone is healthy and a year older. I'm expecting a really good game in week 1 tbh. Purdue strength coach said this is the first year Brohm will have a backup DT over 260 pounds. Pretty amazing. Purdue won't be starting two freshman on the Dline. It's hard to win in the big ten when you are doing that.We husker fans are great at optimism and hope and prior to 2015 it worked out more often than it didn’t.
good luck next season after the first game.
I'm not hyping Purdue up to be great. Brohm is on track in this rebuild though. And as Brohm continues to recruit at a high level and have upperclassmen, it will be a different story. Purdue was the only team in the big ten to average under 3 years of experience among starters on both sides of the ball last year. You have to have upperclassmen to win.
I am curious, what are you basing it off of when you say Nebraska is better than Purdue everywhere but WR?
Recruiting rankings and more visually what I have seen. Most of it is personal opinion and I don't know a ton about your recruiting classes except that we were better, but my breakdown is as follows:
QB - Martinez struggled last year, but he was in the conversation for Frosh AA. His backups are talented as well with the newest member having offers all over the SEC and being the player of the year in Bama. Purdue has had a bunch of guys play and have ok games, but nothing that jumps out. Edge NU.
WR - We covered. You have some dudes. We have Wandale and not a lot of other proven talent. Edge Purdue.
TE - We actually have a little depth here and they all have big time size and some pretty good athleticism. Purdue has a good TE, but not a ton of depth and in the games I watched Purdue didn't really impress me here.
OL - We bring all of our guys back, plus a bunch of highly touted recruits and redshirts. Like I have stated, performance needs to elevate, but Purdue's line doesn't have the recruits, the size or the experience.
DL - You DE is a decent player and if your DT comes back from injury he was alright as well, but nothing else jumped off the page. We lost some players, but still have a lot of experience that has played a long with a few newcomers that are big bodies. This could be a push, but I like our size and depth a lot better than Purdue.
LB - Have some decent players starting that have been in the system awhile. Building depth with some highly sought after dudes. I think your stud graduated and no one has really jumped off the screen at me watching you the last 4 years.
Secondary - Lot's of players at safety, 1 proven corner and a ton of young talent. The coach has shown the ability to develop the hell out of these guys so I feel we have a very solid advantage here as we are going to need it matching up against your WR group.
Now like I said, we are paper champions. Lot's of great athletes that haven't performed.
