Vegas Releases 2021 Win Totals

TruHusker

Offensive Coordinator
Sep 21, 2001
9,414
4,269
113
Well, this is kind of depressing to read.

With the supposed emphasis on "take aways" by our D, why do we have so few?
Why do so many think our D will be even above average this year? Based on what? Returners?

Those stats are horrible and no one can sugar coat them in any way. Some will try by showing some stat from some obscure service that shows we have the best OL and DB's in college football according to their stats. What garbage. Your win totals tell the real story.

We have run some curious plays for certain. I guess someone needs to education me on just how much better we will get with "better play calling?"

Did Frost call all those plays in question or did his OC?
Did Frost call all those plays or did AM audible into them?
Did Frost call all those plays or did AM make the wrong read on a RPO?

I have called plays at the HS level and it is not easy, especially when your team is inept. For the life of me, I cannot understand in my brain how Frost can truly call some of the many bone headed plays we have seen. Does a coach really do that? Or is there something else going on?
 

John_J_Rambo

Recruiting Coordinator
Jan 10, 2020
6,259
11,126
113
Well, this is kind of depressing to read.

With the supposed emphasis on "take aways" by our D, why do we have so few?
Why do so many think our D will be even above average this year? Based on what? Returners?

Those stats are horrible and no one can sugar coat them in any way. Some will try by showing some stat from some obscure service that shows we have the best OL and DB's in college football according to their stats. What garbage. Your win totals tell the real story.

We have run some curious plays for certain. I guess someone needs to education me on just how much better we will get with "better play calling?"

Did Frost call all those plays in question or did his OC?
Did Frost call all those plays or did AM audible into them?
Did Frost call all those plays or did AM make the wrong read on a RPO?

I have called plays at the HS level and it is not easy, especially when your team is inept. For the life of me, I cannot understand in my brain how Frost can truly call some of the many bone headed plays we have seen. Does a coach really do that? Or is there something else going on?
1. I don't think I've ever seen AM change a play at the line in 3 years, and I don't think Frost allows him that leeway. we call these plays after not one, but TWO cracks at it, with the second coming after the defense has already lined up, AM feigning a snap count and the entire O checking with the sideline for a final call.

2. I also think we run very, very few true 'read' plays. whether it's AM being unable to do it or Frost insisting on calling the plays, I believe most of the 'RPOs' we see are pre-determined.
 

Lincoln100

Offensive Coordinator
Jun 16, 2010
8,139
5,013
113
In my head - Minne and Iowa are winnable....so is Michigan and maybe Wisconsin since they are both home games.
Of course they are, in fact, we should genuinely believe that MN and IA will be wins. Not too far behind that are the other 2 games. Good D, 3 yr starter at QB, good receivers, respectable O line. Only thing which seems apparent is that we don't have a stud at RB. Anyone who settles for 6 - 7 wins in year 4 with what we have returning and the talent we have, is nuts.
 
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TheNewNU

First Team All-Big Ten
Dec 27, 2014
3,679
4,466
113


I just don’t see how, without drinking koolaid, you see this team winning 7 games this season. And I bet most of you deep down also agree with the reality of this.

This program under Frost is absolutely amazing at finding ways to lose games. Why does that miraculously change
Frost has yet to hit the over on win totals since he's been here. For that reason and many others I say this team is looking at 3 to 5 wins.
 
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Oct 12, 2016
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1. I don't think I've ever seen AM change a play at the line in 3 years, and I don't think Frost allows him that leeway. we call these plays after not one, but TWO cracks at it, with the second coming after the defense has already lined up, AM feigning a snap count and the entire O checking with the sideline for a final call.

2. I also think we run very, very few true 'read' plays. whether it's AM being unable to do it or Frost insisting on calling the plays, I believe most of the 'RPOs' we see are pre-determined.
Interesting observation, he did let McKenzie Milton select one of several options of plays at the line of scrimmage based on what he saw from the D. But not AM for some reason.
 

Dean Pope

Offensive Coordinator
Oct 11, 2001
9,112
2,237
113
So according to this our losses will be:
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Ioway
Michigan
Minnesota


I think Nebraska is fully capable of winning 2 of these games..
I agree. But that's the optimistic Husker fan side of me. But non-emotional sports betting side of me says the Huskers could also potentially lose to teams like Purdue, Northwestern, Buffalo and Michigan State. If anyone disagrees, I will site the 2017-2020 season results as my source.
 
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TruHusker

Offensive Coordinator
Sep 21, 2001
9,414
4,269
113
1. I don't think I've ever seen AM change a play at the line in 3 years, and I don't think Frost allows him that leeway. we call these plays after not one, but TWO cracks at it, with the second coming after the defense has already lined up, AM feigning a snap count and the entire O checking with the sideline for a final call.

2. I also think we run very, very few true 'read' plays. whether it's AM being unable to do it or Frost insisting on calling the plays, I believe most of the 'RPOs' we see are pre-determined.
Why would you say this? You never saw it? What does it look like to you?

Shoot, most HS teams are making reads and adjustments on plays. There are blocking calls, WR's adjust patterns based in the D and calls. I guess we don't really run the zone read inside and out?

Not saying we do it well, but the average person would be blown away by all the calls and adjustments that go on with each play.
 

John_J_Rambo

Recruiting Coordinator
Jan 10, 2020
6,259
11,126
113
Why would you say this? You never saw it? What does it look like to you?

Shoot, most HS teams are making reads and adjustments on plays. There are blocking calls, WR's adjust patterns based in the D and calls. I guess we don't really run the zone read inside and out?

Not saying we do it well, but the average person would be blown away by all the calls and adjustments that go on with each play.
Frost prefers his quarterback to check with him prior to the snap. If the play is to be changed, he does it then.

Martinez very rarely appears to say anything at the line outside of the snap count, and Jurgens makes the line calls.

I just don’t think the players are given much in-game margin based on observation the last 3 years.
 

9and4

Senior
Dec 4, 2013
2,557
3,885
113
Iowa City
Pro Football Focus not bullish on the Huskers.
Team ranking and projected win total (they don't correlate perfectly because of divisions, non-conference schedules):
  1. Ohio State 10.4
  2. Iowa 8.4
  3. Wisconsin 8.2
  4. Indiana 7.1
  5. Michigan 7.0
  6. Minnesota 6.8
  7. Michigan State 6.3
  8. Northwestern 6.8
  9. Penn State 7.2
  10. Illinois 5.1
  11. Maryland 5.5
  12. Nebraska 5.1
  13. Purdue 4.9
  14. Rutgers 4.3

12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 3%
Conference Championship Win Probability: 1%
Projected Win Total: 5.1

Nebraska is one four-year streak of losing records and no bowl game appearances and, according to our projections, that is likely to continue in 2021. The offense is the prime culprit, as the defense should be in the top half of the Big Ten performance-wise this fall.

The Cornhuskers' defense ranked in the top five in passing efficiency allowed last year and returns its three most valuable players from, according to PFF WAA, in the versatile JoJo Domann, interior defensive linemen and pass-rush leader Ben Stille and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt.

Quarterback Adrian Martinez did improve in 2020 after posting a poor 47.2 passing grade in 2019, and he made a multitude of plays in the ground game, too, but the offense still wasn’t efficient in either facet. The Cornhuskers failed to generate positive expected points added per pass play, ranking third-to-last in the Big Ten in explosive pass play rate. The addition of former FCS star receiver Samori Toure and 2020 four-star recruit Zavier Betts will help some, but it’ll take all three maximizing their full potential in order to get Nebraska out of the Big Ten's basement.
 

SWIowahawks

Junior
Sep 2, 2006
1,652
1,733
113
Nebraska is getting money in the over as it’s -134 for the over and +106 for the under. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that number 6 go up.

My biggest thing is, do you want your money being placed on whether or not Adrian Martinez stays injury free? I don’t think Nebraska wins a game without him at QB.
 
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TheBeav815

Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
Feb 19, 2007
18,898
8,781
113
Chicago Suburbs
Pro Football Focus not bullish on the Huskers.
Team ranking and projected win total (they don't correlate perfectly because of divisions, non-conference schedules):
  1. Ohio State 10.4
  2. Iowa 8.4
  3. Wisconsin 8.2
  4. Indiana 7.1
  5. Michigan 7.0
  6. Minnesota 6.8
  7. Michigan State 6.3
  8. Northwestern 6.8
  9. Penn State 7.2
  10. Illinois 5.1
  11. Maryland 5.5
  12. Nebraska 5.1
  13. Purdue 4.9
  14. Rutgers 4.3

12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 3%
Conference Championship Win Probability: 1%
Projected Win Total: 5.1

Nebraska is one four-year streak of losing records and no bowl game appearances and, according to our projections, that is likely to continue in 2021. The offense is the prime culprit, as the defense should be in the top half of the Big Ten performance-wise this fall.

The Cornhuskers' defense ranked in the top five in passing efficiency allowed last year and returns its three most valuable players from, according to PFF WAA, in the versatile JoJo Domann, interior defensive linemen and pass-rush leader Ben Stille and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt.

Quarterback Adrian Martinez did improve in 2020 after posting a poor 47.2 passing grade in 2019, and he made a multitude of plays in the ground game, too, but the offense still wasn’t efficient in either facet. The Cornhuskers failed to generate positive expected points added per pass play, ranking third-to-last in the Big Ten in explosive pass play rate. The addition of former FCS star receiver Samori Toure and 2020 four-star recruit Zavier Betts will help some, but it’ll take all three maximizing their full potential in order to get Nebraska out of the Big Ten's basement.
And now we wait for somebody to come along and say that PFF doesn't know anything...
 

HuskerAlum92

Blackshirt
Jan 8, 2007
3,108
395
83
Quarterback Adrian Martinez did improve in 2020 after posting a poor 47.2 passing grade in 2019, and he made a multitude of plays in the ground game, too, but the offense still wasn’t efficient in either facet. The Cornhuskers failed to generate positive expected points added per pass play, ranking third-to-last in the Big Ten in explosive pass play rate. The addition of former FCS star receiver Samori Toure and 2020 four-star recruit Zavier Betts will help some, but it’ll take all three maximizing their full potential in order to get Nebraska out of the Big Ten's basement.

I don’t think I’ve heard that stat before, but it’s interesting.

It makes sense that more pass attempts should produce more points, whether a team chooses to by gameplan or is forced to play catch up. I’m wondering how to interpret what it means to fail at that.

It’s no surprise that we are in that category since we have virtually zero explosive pass plays. Our passing game is basically a running game, but with interceptions, incompletes, and sacks mixed in.
 

LagunaHusker

Senior
Gold Member
Jan 8, 2004
2,822
4,891
113
Wigwam, AZ
So, does Frost finish out his contract? Lose to Illinois and the 2021 season will hit the dumpster pretty damn fast. Never thought Frost would stink it up as bad as he has when he was hired.
 
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NebChicago

Redshirt Freshman
Oct 14, 2009
909
801
93
Defense has been improved but still has a long way to go. Having an offense that doesn't strive to go 3-and-out faster than anyone else in the nation would be immensely helpful to the defensive numbers.

Defense also has its own responsibilities to bear such as not acquiring anything resembling an effective edge rush for 3 years. I don't know how hard it should be to find ONE guy you can speed rush off the edge in obvious passing situations to stretch the pocket. Their pass rush has been certifiably impotent.

They're getting good dudes at the run stopping positions, DE, NT, ILB. That OLB spot is still way behind in terms of development and the secondary has been average. The middle of your defense as a strength would be great if it were still 1989. In 2021 everybody is running spread and attacking you vertically and horizontally...everybody except Nebraska who tries to attack you horizontally but can't complete the pass accurately or on time.
Who was our effective edge rusher 4 years ago?
 

Iroh2

Walk On
Nov 9, 2019
364
405
63
I’m just thankful that we kept OU on the schedule... Good early confidence builder...