ADVERTISEMENT

University of Illinois projects

Status
Not open for further replies.
Last edited:
giphy.gif
 

I believe what he means is that even in SEC country the Govs are looking at infection rates as a key indicator of whats going to be allowed. Given the rate of infection down there now, even if everyone jumped on the mask train today, it seems relatively unlikely they are going to massively turn around the results 14-21 days from now (when Moos and others have indicated there needs to be a decision about things).

This might end up being a case of too little too late when it comes to cancelling pieces and parts of fall sports. I hope not though.
 
I believe what he means is that even in SEC country the Govs are looking at infection rates as a key indicator of whats going to be allowed. Given the rate of infection down there now, even if everyone jumped on the mask train today, it seems relatively unlikely they are going to massively turn around the results 14-21 days from now (when Moos and others have indicated there needs to be a decision about things).

This might end up being a case of too little too late when it comes to cancelling pieces and parts of fall sports. I hope not though.

ok --- I was hedging with the "may have"

perhaps it would have been more accurate to say we have already lost our window to maximize the chances of having college football this fall
 
ok --- I was hedging with the "may have"

perhaps it would have been more accurate to say we have already lost our window to maximize the chances of having college football this fall

Right, nothing is certain yet.
 
any intervention that is widely deployed now - will not see an effect until we're into August
plans for college sports, particularly football will need to be nailed down prior to this time
I believe they have been.

plans to cancel summer sports were solidified 3+ months in advance. if fall sports were doomed, I do not believe we'd have every single D1 school and thousands of players trudging through a pointless voluntary workout period with summer camp starting in just over 2 weeks.

the only decision looming will have to do with attendance, in my opinion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OzzyLvr
I believe they have been.

plans to cancel summer sports were solidified 3+ months in advance. if fall sports were doomed, I do not believe we'd have every single D1 school and thousands of players trudging through a pointless voluntary workout period with summer camp starting in just over 2 weeks.

the only decision looming will have to do with attendance, in my opinion.

it took/will take months/weeks of planning and preparation in order for football to kickoff this fall
it will only take 3 seconds to pull the plug on those plans

having players report tells me they are hoping/planning to have a season - not that a season is destined to happen
 
it took/will take months/weeks of planning and preparation in order for football to kickoff this fall
it will only take 3 seconds to pull the plug on those plans

having players report tells me they are hoping/planning to have a season - not that a season is destined to happen
the literal future of college sports hinge on playing football this season. there are only ~20 athletic departments in the country who can survive without one.

it would take much longer than 3 seconds to pull the plug on this season.
 
the literal future of college sports hinge on playing football this season. there are only ~20 athletic departments in the country who can survive without one.

it would take much longer than 3 seconds to pull the plug on this season.

I have said all along there is nothing keeping a large number of schools from deciding to have football and even having full capacity stadiums - I am not arguing the merits of whether this is wise or not

without getting too political - I think most assume that the more conservative areas would be more receptive to wide open fall sports with larger crowds

there are 21 states with both the governor and legislative branches "red" for lack of a better term

every one of these states has at least one D1 football team - many with more than 1
there are 33 power 5 teams within these states

medical professionals are going to give recommendations regarding their opinions on how to save the most lives and they are going to err on the side of lives saved - they are not going to factor in the economy or the effects on athletic programs in these recs

it is up to the officials to take these recommendations and balance them with the economic factors including whether or not to play football and decide where things will land

if you are of the believe that these decisions are in some ways politically motivated then as above there are enough power 5 teams in very "red" states to have a near normal football season if these state officials have the cajones to decide football is going to proceed with minimal, if any, restrictions
 
  • Like
Reactions: Red I 73
I have said all along there is nothing keeping a large number of schools from deciding to have football and even having full capacity stadiums - I am not arguing the merits of whether this is wise or not

without getting too political - I think most assume that the more conservative areas would be more receptive to wide open fall sports with larger crowds

there are 21 states with both the governor and legislative branches "red" for lack of a better term

every one of these states has at least one D1 football team - many with more than 1
there are 33 power 5 teams within these states

medical professionals are going to give recommendations regarding their opinions on how to save the most lives and they are going to err on the side of lives saved - they are not going to factor in the economy or the effects on athletic programs in these recs

it is up to the officials to take these recommendations and balance them with the economic factors including whether or not to play football and decide where things will land

if you are of the believe that these decisions are in some ways politically motivated then as above there are enough power 5 teams in very "red" states to have a near normal football season if these state officials have the cajones to decide football is going to proceed with minimal, if any, restrictions
like I said, I believe the only decisions yet to be made are those that have to do with attendance allowed at the start of the season.
 
When the B1G floated the idea of eliminate non cons I wondered how that would work for NU. We open with a league game. Would they push that back?
 
Meanwhile the 2020 Darwin Award goes to Alabama students who are throwing COVID parties to see who gets infected first.

 
Meanwhile the 2020 Darwin Award goes to Alabama students who are throwing COVID parties to see who gets infected first.


Yah this whole idea of personal responsbility making school ok is going out the window. Uni presidents are not happy to see this article.

This isn't really a case of "well Johnny is a jackass and didn't make grades and dropped, hurting no one but himself. Sally is now taking a good job with a presitigious company cuz she did her homework".

This is kids being dumb and increasing the risk factor for University decision makers, health and legal. Not everyone these kids will come into contact with on campus in Tuscaloosa is going to be a low risk factor if they expect these chuckleheads to be there a whole term. Wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of folks employed at colleges are complaining upwards with more vigor.
 

The only thing having fall football has to do with wearing masks would be if someone NOT wearing a mask gives the Wuhan Flu to players or coaches. I've said it multiple times now, IF we're going to test repeatedly all players and then quarantine them, I don't think we'll have college football this fall. I don't think wearing a mask is going to change that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OzzyLvr
Apparently the UNMC thinks we can safely have football this fall if we follow their guidelines. Personally for such an extremely low risk group as college athletes I think the testing parameters are over the top. Clemson was already at least a fourth of the way to team immunity a few weeks ago. IF they had quit testing for a couple of weeks they might have been all the way there. IMO the test and quarantine approach we're taking with that age of a student is completely illogical.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OzzyLvr
Here's the ethical dilemma. If we assume that:
  • 5 players will die in CFB if we play (the middle of the 3-7 range)
  • Around 13,000 players in FBS
  • Nebraska's roster will be around 150 players (one of the largest in the nation)
Then the numbers say:
  • 12,995 players in CFB survive the season
  • Each player has a 99.962% survival probability (12995/13000)
  • The probability that all Nebraska players survive the season is about 94.5% (0.99962^150)
  • So roughly a 5% chance that a Nebraska player dies
If you're a parent, are you going to let your kid play? If you're Frost or Moos are you ok with that kind of risk? We should consider that players get hurt and are able to recover from lost seasons, so I don't think a single missed season would necessarily ruin all the players' NFL prospects. Especially if they are given another year of eligibility.

To take that further, if the 14 teams in the B1G have roughly 1400 players, then that's roughly a 41% chance that a player dies in the B1G. If you're the commissioner are you ok with those numbers?
You need to take remedial math. That might be the worst attempt at statistical analysis I've ever seen. Using an extremely poor attempt at predicting deaths from an extrapolation from the general population to college athletes as the basis of your fiction was your first mistake. For a healthy 18-25 college athlete with no underlying disease process, the risk of death from COVID is bascially zero. The odds of having a football player die from COVID regardless of whether or not he's playing football or not is less than 1 in 100,000. There will be more college football players die in car wrecks this fall than will die from COVID over the next couple of years. Better make it illegal for them to ride in or drive cars.
 
Apparently the UNMC thinks we can safely have football this fall if we follow their guidelines. Personally for such an extremely low risk group as college athletes I think the testing parameters are over the top. Clemson was already at least a fourth of the way to team immunity a few weeks ago. IF they had quit testing for a couple of weeks they might have been all the way there. IMO the test and quarantine approach we're taking with that age of a student is completely illogical.

When I talked to my mom today she said the mood there among the advisors, even among the hardline football docs, was probably a no-go.

Granted, still changing, still evolving, no final anythings have been issued. Has no idea how the football operation (Nebraska or B1G) will respond even if they were to get a thumbs down from the medical world in a few weeks. But it was being noticed that docs who normally are big football boosters are saying they won't be in attendance even if the season does go.
 
When I talked to my mom today she said the mood there among the advisors, even among the hardline football docs, was probably a no-go.

Granted, still changing, still evolving, no final anythings have been issued. Has no idea how the football operation (Nebraska or B1G) will respond even if they were to get a thumbs down from the medical world in a few weeks. But it was being noticed that docs who normally are big football boosters are saying they won't be in attendance even if the season does go.
As I've stated, IF we're going to follow the UNMC guidelines, I don't think there's any way we'll have college football. I think it's just sheer lunacy but I don't think many Universities are going to end up with students on campus. There is no more risk and maybe less risk from this than Influenza for healthy kids. It's mind boggling what we've turned this in to.
 
might be the same, however in one of those scenarios the school isn’t going to be involved in a lawsuit
I'm more worried about a player getting Covid 19 during activities away from the team. We are seeing this summer that a lot of our nation's young people simply will let the threat of getting infected stop them from going out and having a good time.
 
As I've stated, IF we're going to follow the UNMC guidelines, I don't think there's any way we'll have college football. I think it's just sheer lunacy but I don't think many Universities are going to end up with students on campus. There is no more risk and maybe less risk from this than Influenza for healthy kids. It's mind boggling what we've turned this in to.

Agree. Although I think we do differ on how this colors risk decisions. I'm pretty comfortable with athletes more or less being safe. The rest of campus youth, probably mostly pretty safe. You certainly have a sizable population of folks that work on and around campus though for which this is a concern.

I don't see these big money decision guys saying "oh well, the players will be fine, let's roll" when they have all these other avenues they are in charge of. NCAA FB is not being played in a bubble unlike pro sports.

So while I more or less share a non-chalant view about the football team, I don't believe we can draw a bright line between them and the rest of the university empire like so many here are wanting to do.
 
There is not going to be any degree of certainty around COVID going into the fall and possibly for sometime.

Those that are dismayed that scientists don’t have a new disease that has been present worldwide for all of 6-8 months all figured out including the potential long term sequela just don’t have the capacity to understand the complexity of the issue.

This isnt analogous to changing the oil in the Ford-150, or landing a fighter jet on an aircraft carrier.

That falls in line with every expert I've read and heard speak. All credible sources with no political agenda.
 
I believe they have been.

plans to cancel summer sports were solidified 3+ months in advance. if fall sports were doomed, I do not believe we'd have every single D1 school and thousands of players trudging through a pointless voluntary workout period with summer camp starting in just over 2 weeks.

the only decision looming will have to do with attendance, in my opinion.
I agree. The problem is this latest rush of cases coming in later in the process. People are screwing up royally at a time of the year that we were counting on cases to decline.
 
I agree. The problem is this latest rush of cases coming in later in the process. People are screwing up royally at a time of the year that we were counting on cases to decline.
IF we were really worried about having college football this fall we should have been encouraging college age kids to be out partying like animals several months ago. Our CFR would be extremely low now and we could have done serology and proven that there was a high degree of immunity already in that age of student. IMO, kids and young adults are going to be the key to abating this either through natural or vaccinal immunity.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OzzyLvr
IF we were really worried about having college football this fall we should have been encouraging college age kids to be out partying like animals several months ago. Our CFR would be extremely low now and we could have done serology and proven that there was a high degree of immunity already in that age of student. IMO, kids and young adults are going to be the key to abating this either through natural or vaccinal immunity.

You keep pushing this "quick herd immunity" angle, but I don't know that it changes the risk calculus that much.

Its obviously settled for you that its the land of milk and honey. (Quite honestly for me, I feel the same way). But folks like Rickets and the B1G who reach out to these big organizations for advice are hearing things about how its not settled science. Mayo Clinic for instance. No one is sure how much immunity it actually buys us and for how long, and we may overwhelm hospitals en route to achieving it.

That's not really what decision makers wants to hear from those type of organizations. Its basically buyer beware at that point.
 
I agree. The problem is this latest rush of cases coming in later in the process. People are screwing up royally at a time of the year that we were counting on cases to decline.

I mean, Rambo has said it several times. We are facing an extinction level event in college sports, and even for some colleges.

In normal times, it doesn't make much sense to get everyone geared up to go....and then not go. But if you want to give every possible chance to save those organizations than you go through the rigamarole.

I think anyone who has served in the military is well acquainted with "hurry up and wait". These civilian folk who just want to get drunk and yell at the players on tv are probably not largely familiar with it ...it sucks. :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: John_J_Rambo
That falls in line with every expert I've read and heard speak. All credible sources with no political agenda.

The fundamental problem here is that the science is behind the decision timeline for football. There's not enough known to assuage the muckety mucks for a normal season.

These people who make these decisions, largely do so off of branding, and literal weight of the evidence in front of them.

You or I or even some random K street lobbyist can show them a chart that says "oh hey this thing is probably not quite as deadly as we think" but time and time again these guys go back to what's on their desk.

What's on their desk is a 15,000 page report from Hopkins saying this is bad. Another 15,000 page report from UNMC saying its bad. Another one from UW, and all corners hence. At best these institutions are saying "TBD" for a lot of relevant issues. So they have 50lbs of paper evidence as to why this is bad, and a handful of other things that says its not.

They read none to very little of it. But they can go on TV and say they followed the advice of professionals at The Mayo Clinic who wrote them a fancy 15,000 page report. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see how that's going to go. Top cover is generally desired on these risky decisions.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: bshirt73
I mean, Rambo has said it several times. We are facing an extinction level event in college sports, and even for some colleges.

In normal times, it doesn't make much sense to get everyone geared up to go....and then not go. But if you want to give every possible chance to save those organizations than you go through the rigamarole.

I think anyone who has served in the military is well acquainted with "hurry up and wait". These civilian folk who just want to get drunk and yell at the players on tv are probably not largely familiar with it ...it sucks. :)
yea, and sadly it's not just my opinion. collegiate athletic departments have gotten fat on their own hog without a contingency for a complete cancellation of all revenue streams, television or otherwise. meanwhile, CFR keeps decreasing but still we're greeted each morning by the familiar '2 more weeks' marching order.

I'm no virologist; I don't possess a cure nor do I claim to. I have no f'n clue what the answer is, other than the obvious vaccine creation, which seems far-fetched.

I've been adamant about a season starting on time, and featuring fans in the stands, for months. I'm still confident in the first 2, but that confidence is waning with each breath the powers that be, fearful of the pitchfork-wielding mob, the science they don't understand, the powerless unknown or all three, exude into the nearest microphone.

it does, indeed, suck.
 
Last edited:
yea, and sadly it's not just my opinion. collegiate athletic departments have gotten fat on their own hog without a contingency for a complete cancellation of all revenue streams, television or otherwise. meanwhile, CFR keeps decreasing but still we're greeted each morning by the familiar '2 more weeks' marching order.

I've been adamant about a season starting on time, and featuring fans in the stands for months. I'm still confident in the first 2, but that confidence is waning with each breath the powers that be, fearful of the pitchfork-wielding mob, exude into the nearest microphone.

Yah I think I've been equally as adamant that there's been no real, actual observable from national, state, or NCAA FB decision makers that they are ready to treat this thing as a "less than special" case. Still isn't, and is in fact trending the other direction.

I understand the point that you and others have made about "its about the money", but IMO we are beyond the point where if it was solely about the money........the SEC would have declared a normal season at Memorial Day when folks were feeling froggy.That they didn't seemed suspicious to me.

Recent events by the TX, SC, and GA governors have sort of laid that bare, and people are beginning to realize that YOLO is not about to rule the day in decision making. These were states that led the way in general re-opening and are leading the way frankly, in possibly breaking peoples hearts about the fall.

I think in a way, if it has to happen, its better than the South lead the way on this. Such a dominate force in the national psyche of football, if the heavy hitters of the B12, ACC, and SEC in red states modify or eliminate the season, it'll have a different impact than if we collectively threw in the towel because NY and California decided to sit out.
 
Yah I think I've been equally as adamant that there's been no real, actual observable from national, state, or NCAA FB decision makers that they are ready to treat this thing as a "less than special" case. Still isn't, and is in fact trending the other direction.

I understand the point that you and others have made about "its about the money", but IMO we are beyond the point where if it was solely about the money........the SEC would have declared a normal season at Memorial Day when folks were feeling froggy.That they didn't seemed suspicious to me.

Recent events by the TX, SC, and GA governors have sort of laid that bare, and people are beginning to realize that YOLO is not about to rule the day in decision making. These were states that led the way in general re-opening and are leading the way frankly, in possibly breaking peoples hearts about the fall.

I think in a way, if it has to happen, its better than the South lead the way on this. Such a dominate force in the national psyche of football, if the heavy hitters of the B12, ACC, and SEC in red states modify or eliminate the season, it'll have a different impact than if we collectively threw in the towel because NY and California decided to sit out.
I mean, they all said full steam ahead for an on-time start. the gov of OH was saying 50k people in the horseshoe opening day. TX gov saying 75% capacity allowed. hell, they're still acting as if summer camp will kickoff mid-July. hopefully it does.

these spikes don't align with re-opening, as nate silver said earlier today, but the very-hard-to-predict powder keg eruption that led to the masses swarming the streets two+ weeks ago. anyone with a brain can do that math. De Blasio wants to contact trace, but doesn't allow medical professionals to ask positive testers whether they took to the streets. it all flies in the face of actual science.

nobody can say the protests weren't justified, or even not worth this aftermath. I agree with the protesters and their message. assuming reform is accomplished in a sweeping way, one football season isn't much price to pay in the grand scheme of things. I'm just flummoxed by the seemingly blindsided reaction to something we knew was coming, down to the day.
 
I mean, they all said full steam ahead for an on-time start. the gov of OH was saying 50k people in the horseshoe opening day. TX gov saying 75% capacity allowed. hell, they're still acting as if summer camp will kickoff mid-July. hopefully it does.

these spikes don't align with re-opening, as nate silver said earlier today, but the very-hard-to-predict powder keg eruption that led to the masses swarming the streets two+ weeks ago. anyone with a brain can do that math. De Blasio wants to contact trace, but doesn't allow medical professionals to ask positive testers whether they took to the streets. it all flies in the face of actual science.

nobody can say the protests weren't justified, or even not worth this aftermath. I agree with the protesters and their message. assuming reform is accomplished in a sweeping way, one football season isn't much price to pay. I'm just flummoxed by the seemingly blindsided reaction to something we knew was coming, down to the day.

There's a difference to me at least, between them peddling the optimistic outcome, and committing to it.

No one committed to it. They all more or less said "we plan" or "we hope". Not "we are". In one form or another, every one of those proclamations was followed with *Fine print- subject to advice of medical professionals and local govt."

In plain speak. Nothing burgers that serve as ideal scenario wishlists in real life scenarios that were anything but ideal.

Interjected with all that, talk of downsizing, diminished payouts, etc. The NFL was probably the most optmistic about having a full normal season with fans, and they cut their budget 25% in like April (who announces business as usual and then cuts a budget 25%?).

I also think the contact tracing talk by those guys is irrelevant. More political fighting about nothing. We never really came off our first plateau that far before we swelled up again. We never had a significant contact trace ability before the protests started, certainly not for the numbers after its effects took place.

But yah I still think its better if the South leads the way on this football thing. They were seen as most indicative of the YOLO spirit on general re-opening, so if they back on all that is holy football, it'll be received better than following say NY.
 
There's a difference to me at least, between them peddling the optimistic outcome, and committing to it.

No one committed to it. They all more or less said "we plan" or "we hope". Not "we are". In one form or another, every one of those proclamations was followed with *Fine print- subject to advice of medical professionals and local govt."

In plain speak. Nothing burgers that serve as ideal scenario wishlists in real life scenarios that were anything but ideal.

Interjected with all that, talk of downsizing, diminished payouts, etc. The NFL was probably the most optmistic about having a full normal season with fans, and they cut their budget 25% in like April (who announces business as usual and then cuts a budget 25%?).

I also think the contact tracing talk by those guys is irrelevant. More political fighting about nothing. We never really came off our first plateau that far before we swelled up again. We never had a significant contact trace ability before the protests started, certainly not for the numbers after its effects took place.

But yah I still think its better if the South leads the way on this football thing. They were seen as most indicative of the YOLO spirit on general re-opening, so if they back on all that is holy football, it'll be received better than following say NY.
they'll lead, alright.

straight down the tunnel and onto the gridiron!
 
  • Like
Reactions: jflores
You keep pushing this "quick herd immunity" angle, but I don't know that it changes the risk calculus that much.

Its obviously settled for you that its the land of milk and honey. (Quite honestly for me, I feel the same way). But folks like Rickets and the B1G who reach out to these big organizations for advice are hearing things about how its not settled science. Mayo Clinic for instance. No one is sure how much immunity it actually buys us and for how long, and we may overwhelm hospitals en route to achieving it.

That's not really what decision makers wants to hear from those type of organizations. Its basically buyer beware at that point.

Where is the fear of overwhelming hospitals coming from?
 
  • Like
Reactions: OzzyLvr
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT