Reading some predictions of doom & gloom this year based on being a transition year with new coaches, I decided to do a little research on how coaches with success at a school did in their transition year. I Googled top 25 active CFB coaches along with coaches with top winning percentage. To avoid the Larry Coker, Ty Willingham effect (great first season ending in failure), I omitted coaches with a couple of years or less at a school (Sumlin, Shaw, Helfrich). The majority of top coaches coached at multiple schools, so I included every transition season (IE: Urban at BG, Saban at Tol) & ended with 26 coaches encompassing 50 transition seasons. Also this is for college football only which means every coach had to overcome the same obstacles of losing stars, graduating players, limited scholarships (depth issues) & of course, transition.
So without further ado, in their first year at a school, the most successful active CFB coaches:
Increased or equaled the win total wins from their predecessor 86% of the years (43/50).
Increased win total by an average of just over 2 games per year (105 total games increased/50).
Equaled win total in 8% of years (4/50).
Decreased win total in 14% (7/50).
A couple of interesting notes as I was looking through schools records. Looking at some of the most successful coaches in CFB history, these results look similar with a few interesting outliers (Woody). Conversely, if you looked at each schools folly (Callahan at Neb, Faust at ND, Rich Rod at UM) you would see an almost immediate decline in wins, most times drastic. There were also some great first year seasons put up by coaches whose stint at a school ended horribly (Weiss). Also, of the 7 seasons with decrease in wins, most were by rookie coaches & most were followed up with good 2nd seasons.
So the stats back up the old adage that you define a great coach by his ability to take his players & beat your players or take your players & beat his players. It really is that simple. Good coaches very rarely win less than their predecessors.
I have all the data if anyone is interested, but it would be far too long to read if I included everything. Also, I just did this quickly so I may be off a number here or there.
So without further ado, in their first year at a school, the most successful active CFB coaches:
Increased or equaled the win total wins from their predecessor 86% of the years (43/50).
Increased win total by an average of just over 2 games per year (105 total games increased/50).
Equaled win total in 8% of years (4/50).
Decreased win total in 14% (7/50).
A couple of interesting notes as I was looking through schools records. Looking at some of the most successful coaches in CFB history, these results look similar with a few interesting outliers (Woody). Conversely, if you looked at each schools folly (Callahan at Neb, Faust at ND, Rich Rod at UM) you would see an almost immediate decline in wins, most times drastic. There were also some great first year seasons put up by coaches whose stint at a school ended horribly (Weiss). Also, of the 7 seasons with decrease in wins, most were by rookie coaches & most were followed up with good 2nd seasons.
So the stats back up the old adage that you define a great coach by his ability to take his players & beat your players or take your players & beat his players. It really is that simple. Good coaches very rarely win less than their predecessors.
I have all the data if anyone is interested, but it would be far too long to read if I included everything. Also, I just did this quickly so I may be off a number here or there.
