I will even give you a definition of better.
In 2013, Tommy played in 9 games as a RSFreshman. His stats:
Rushing: 67-277 3.0 5 fumbles, lost 2
Passing: 124.31 68-131-8 51.9% 996 yards 9 TDs 7.6 yard/att
In 2014, Tommy started all 13 games as a sophomore. His stats:
Rushing 145-705 4.9 10 fumbles, 5 lost
Passing: 133.04 184-345-12 53.3% 2695 yards 12 TDs 7.8 yard/att
Assume for 2015 that Tommy starts all 13 games (assume no division title, just so it's easier to compare it to the same number of games in 2014):
Rushing: 110-605 5.5 5 fumbles, lost 2
Passing: 218-375-7 58.1% 3015 yards 15 TDs 8.0 yard/att
In other words, assume that Tommy keeps the ball a little less per game than in 2014 but gets more out of the keepers and does a much better job of holding on to the ball than he did in 2014. Assume that he passes more often but for only a little bit more per attempt than in his first two years (because the offense focuses on shorter passes), but he improves his interception ratio and his completion ratio. His passing efficiency is 135.14, which would have been good for top 50 but not by much.
I think that these assumed numbers reflect the minimum level of improvement one can expect from a FBS QB with a full season of starting to show in his junior year. The improvement is across the board and significant but not dramatic.
How many wins?
Oh, and before anyone says it, OF COURSE this question is unreasonably narrow. One cannot predict wins and losses from just one player's stats. It's a team game. Another good barometer of our wins and losses will be performance of our thin LB'ing crew, and no one would expect Tommy to have much impact on that. ETC. But if one RSS member can post the pessimistic version of Tommy's junior season, the optimistic version deserves equal time.
Edit: I made a reporting error on Tommy's 2014 passing stats: It's 22 TDs, not 12. Sorry. I will leave my assumptions for 2015 unchanged.
In 2013, Tommy played in 9 games as a RSFreshman. His stats:
Rushing: 67-277 3.0 5 fumbles, lost 2
Passing: 124.31 68-131-8 51.9% 996 yards 9 TDs 7.6 yard/att
In 2014, Tommy started all 13 games as a sophomore. His stats:
Rushing 145-705 4.9 10 fumbles, 5 lost
Passing: 133.04 184-345-12 53.3% 2695 yards 12 TDs 7.8 yard/att
Assume for 2015 that Tommy starts all 13 games (assume no division title, just so it's easier to compare it to the same number of games in 2014):
Rushing: 110-605 5.5 5 fumbles, lost 2
Passing: 218-375-7 58.1% 3015 yards 15 TDs 8.0 yard/att
In other words, assume that Tommy keeps the ball a little less per game than in 2014 but gets more out of the keepers and does a much better job of holding on to the ball than he did in 2014. Assume that he passes more often but for only a little bit more per attempt than in his first two years (because the offense focuses on shorter passes), but he improves his interception ratio and his completion ratio. His passing efficiency is 135.14, which would have been good for top 50 but not by much.
I think that these assumed numbers reflect the minimum level of improvement one can expect from a FBS QB with a full season of starting to show in his junior year. The improvement is across the board and significant but not dramatic.
How many wins?
Oh, and before anyone says it, OF COURSE this question is unreasonably narrow. One cannot predict wins and losses from just one player's stats. It's a team game. Another good barometer of our wins and losses will be performance of our thin LB'ing crew, and no one would expect Tommy to have much impact on that. ETC. But if one RSS member can post the pessimistic version of Tommy's junior season, the optimistic version deserves equal time.
Edit: I made a reporting error on Tommy's 2014 passing stats: It's 22 TDs, not 12. Sorry. I will leave my assumptions for 2015 unchanged.
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