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The 1% blunder: How a simple but fatal math mistake by US Covid-19 experts caused the world to panic

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Read a lot of the paper, looks to cherry pick numbers and use the word “may” a whole lot. He uses a full season (8-9 months) of Influenza A, with multiple years of revision and analysis and uses it in comparison to numbers from May 9th for COVID. Of course we’ve had 100K die since May 9th, and we continue to see revised death numbers.

Not saying mistakes weren’t made, because it’s real easy for us to poke holes in things months later when there is real evidence and data. All things that didn’t exist fully enough in March.
 
About time to rename this board The Trump Chronicle. Even the moderators have gotten drunk on the TrumpAid.
This article has nothing to do with Trump and he was never mentioned until you did. I just thought it was an interesting article on a mistake made in the initial stages of this pandemic. In all honestly, mistakes were probably going to be made in a virus that nobody really knew much about.
 
i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious
 
i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious
You obviously didn’t read the article. It didn’t talk about how contagious that Covid is. It talked about the fatality rate and not infection rate.

Also, in case you didn’t notice, I haven’t really participated in much of the political stuff on this board. To me, this article had nothing to do with politics, but just about mistakes made at the beginning of the pandemic. People like you seem like the ones that want to make it political.
 
It wasn’t really necessary, was it. But what used to be a great place to discuss football has become nothing but another right wing echo chamber.
i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious
Because they get tested.... and most tests are positive. Some even positive before being taken AND many positive without even taking a test. That's enough to make me quite skeptical
 
You obviously didn’t read the article. It didn’t talk about how contagious that Covid is. It talked about the fatality rate and not infection rate.

Also, in case you didn’t notice, I haven’t really participated in much of the political stuff on this board. To me, this article had nothing to do with politics, but just about mistakes made at the beginning of the pandemic. People like you seem like the ones that want to make it political.

We have a winner
 
You obviously didn’t read the article. It didn’t talk about how contagious that Covid is. It talked about the fatality rate and not infection rate.

Also, in case you didn’t notice, I haven’t really participated in much of the political stuff on this board. To me, this article had nothing to do with politics, but just about mistakes made at the beginning of the pandemic. People like you seem like the ones that want to make it political.

The “article”, from Russia Today? The literal media arm of the Russian Goverment?
 
i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious
So let me get this straight. Somebody links an article about the virus. Then you reply bringing up and insinuating said persons politics. Assuming his reason for linking the article was political based..... Yet you are the only one that brings up politics. Hmm interesting.
 
i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious

I choked a second time lmao.
 
The author is a doctor in England.

Well, he grabs the headline over the US, then basically rails on the UK lockdowns, primarily ignoring US data.

Did congress issue lockdowns in the US? Did I miss something? Do people disagree that New York City should have locked down? I guess I see an “article” from a Russian government paper, written by a UK doctor, referencing a draft opinion piece from an accountant in Canada saying that they “may” have mixed up a term back in March. And I wonder how people could confuse this with news.
 
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You obviously didn’t read the article. It didn’t talk about how contagious that Covid is. It talked about the fatality rate and not infection rate.

Also, in case you didn’t notice, I haven’t really participated in much of the political stuff on this board. To me, this article had nothing to do with politics, but just about mistakes made at the beginning of the pandemic. People like you seem like the ones that want to make it political.
This has become a very strange phenomenon. For some reason, there are people that seem to WANT this to be as deadly as the original worst-case scenarios predicted it to be. Now, with more data we have a better idea of what we are actually dealing with but people are clinging to old, outdated, and discredited models because they want to justify their fear. It seems like a form of Stockholm syndrome.
 
This has become a very strange phenomenon. For some reason, there are people that seem to WANT this to be as deadly as the original worst-case scenarios predicted it to be. Now, with more data we have a better idea of what we are actually dealing with but people are clinging to old, outdated, and discredited models because they want to justify their fear. It seems like a form of Stockholm syndrome.

great observations. Notice the ones that cheerlead the virus are always vocal anti-Trump.
 
You obviously didn’t read the article. It didn’t talk about how contagious that Covid is. It talked about the fatality rate and not infection rate.

Also, in case you didn’t notice, I haven’t really participated in much of the political stuff on this board. To me, this article had nothing to do with politics, but just about mistakes made at the beginning of the pandemic. People like you seem like the ones that want to make it political.
I’m beginning to think bingo can’t read
 
Well, he grabs the headline over the US, then basically rails on the UK lockdowns, primarily ignoring US data.

Did congress issue lockdowns in the US? Did I miss something? Do people disagree that New York City should have locked down? I guess I see an “article” from a Russian government paper, written by a UK doctor, referencing a draft opinion piece from an accountant in Canada saying that they “may” have mixed up a term back in March. And I wonder how people could confuse this with news.
From what I see in this article, it says they did mix up the IFR and CFR and didn’t see the words “may have” anywhere. It also looks like it caused the Imperial College experts to estimate way higher the death numbers which in turned cause people to panic and then states shut down because of it, when in reality, they didn’t have to.
 
great observations. Notice the ones that cheerlead the virus are always vocal anti-Trump.
It goes beyond politics, but that is part of it. Basically every time a doctor speaks out about this in a way that puts it into perspective they are ran through the ringer. Every time we hear about a treatment that is showing signs of efficacy its just "anecdotal evidence" and will probably kill you. Even now with a potential vaccine on the horizon people are saying we can't go back to normal ever. It's almost like this has gone on for so long that its become a comfortable fear. The virus is holding us captive but we are still alive, so the alternative could be way worse.
 
It goes beyond politics, but that is part of it. Basically every time a doctor speaks out about this in a way that puts it into perspective they are ran through the ringer. Every time we hear about a treatment that is showing signs of efficacy its just "anecdotal evidence" and will probably kill you. Even now with a potential vaccine on the horizon people are saying we can't go back to normal ever. It's almost like this has gone on for so long that its become a comfortable fear. The virus is holding us captive but we are still alive, so the alternative could be way worse.
I read a interesting article about dr Fauci and how he’s in bed with China and big pharmaceutical. I’ll try and find the article and post the link, but you’ll see a lot of deniers on this board they think Fauci walks on water
 
I wonder what some of you guys are going to do if this thing is completely impotent by spring next year and the US doesn't suffer crazy death totals....

I feel like some people here are so vested in this being a BFD that you'll actually be super sad deep down, and maybe a little bitter if this thing ends up being another swine flu case

Were you the guys that bought 16 family packs of toilet paper when this began 8 months ago?
 
From what I see in this article, it says they did mix up the IFR and CFR and didn’t see the words “may have” anywhere. It also looks like it caused the Imperial College experts to estimate way higher the death numbers which in turned cause people to panic and then states shut down because of it, when in reality, they didn’t have to.

Here’s his “claim”


Published online in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM.org), the editorial stated:

“...the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%).”4
Almost as a parenthetical afterthought, the NEJM editorial inaccurately stated that 0.1% is the
approximate case fatality rate of seasonal influenza.

Here’s where he’s misrepresented the first source. They said severe seasonal influenza and he felt it was okay to drop the severe tag. And not to mention we fight influenza with vaccines and known antivirals.

Moving along, a direct quote from the source for the article where he admits he doesn’t know that they used bad data, he just thinks it may have happened.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...s_in_coronavirus_mortality_overestimation.pdf

This terminology omission, in conjunction with questionable use of fatality rate terminology in the NEJM editorial, raises red flags—warning of possible inaccuracies in the coronavirus mortality estimation presented to Congress.
 
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I wonder what some of you guys are going to do if this thing is completely impotent by spring next year and the US doesn't suffer crazy death totals....

I feel like some people here are so vested in this being a BFD that you'll actually be super sad deep down, and maybe a little bitter if this thing ends up being another swine flu case

Were you the guys that bought 16 family packs of toilet paper when this began 8 months ago?

So 180k dead in 6th months isn’t crazy?
 
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I wonder what some of you guys are going to do if this thing is completely impotent by spring next year and the US doesn't suffer crazy death totals....

I feel like some people here are so vested in this being a BFD that you'll actually be super sad deep down, and maybe a little bitter if this thing ends up being another swine flu case

Were you the guys that bought 16 family packs of toilet paper when this began 8 months ago?
US already has suffered crazy death totals. Deaths per million people, US(574 dead per million) has higher rate than Mexico, Germany, Canada, France. The Gov response to Covid is a disgrace and a scandal.
 
This has become a very strange phenomenon. For some reason, there are people that seem to WANT this to be as deadly as the original worst-case scenarios predicted it to be. Now, with more data we have a better idea of what we are actually dealing with but people are clinging to old, outdated, and discredited models because they want to justify their fear. It seems like a form of Stockholm syndrome.

People can't accept that they wasted half a year of their lives for nothing. The evidence is clear that's the case.
 
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