The 1% blunder: How a simple but fatal math mistake by US Covid-19 experts caused the world to panic

[dinglefritz]

Interesting, this study dropped from economists claiming Sturgis is responsible for 250k cases and 12 billion in health care costs.

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

Didn’t read all 60+ pages, but they primarily used anonymized cell phone data. Of note, it’s not peer reviewed and has been challenged heavily by South Dakota’s governor.

That study which you and somebody else keep mentioning is complete horsesh##. They make the assumption that IF some body was in the same building with somebody who tested positive then they contracted COVID. They also wildely extrapolate a rise in positive tests in South Dakota during that time frame. Well guess what. South Dakota colleges went back to school then and instituted wide spread testing which was the main source of the numbers. It had little to do with the rally.

 

[CeMar_Clone]

i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious

Based upon the contact lists that I have seen at the U of I show that your most likely source of Covid19 is from your family at home. It is actually very hard to get unless you are exposed for long periods, ie, at home.

 

[GBRforLife1]

Appreciate you

🤡🤡🤡

 

[GBRforLife1]

That study which you and somebody else keep mentioning is complete horsesh##. They make the assumption that IF some body was in the same building with somebody who tested positive then they contracted COVID. They also wildely extrapolate a rise in positive tests in South Dakota during that time frame. Well guess what. South Dakota colleges went back to school then and instituted wide spread testing which was the main source of the numbers. It had little to do with the rally.

Yet fits his M.O. perfectly. Totally disingenuous.

 

[GBRforLife1]

Based upon the contact lists that I have seen at the U of I show that your most likely source of Covid19 is from your family at home. It is actually very hard to get unless you are exposed for long periods, ie, at home.

So why don't we lock everyone at home?

 

[Bugeater]

That study which you and somebody else keep mentioning is complete horsesh##. They make the assumption that IF some body was in the same building with somebody who tested positive then they contracted COVID. They also wildely extrapolate a rise in positive tests in South Dakota during that time frame. Well guess what. South Dakota colleges went back to school then and instituted wide spread testing which was the main source of the numbers. It had little to do with the rally.

jmLIEhr is all you need to know, very telling from his site name.

 

[GBRforLife1]

Michigan is a totally fvcked up state.

 

[starbrown]

Michigan is a totally fvcked up state.

 

[yort2000]

Are there people saying this is normal behavior? These idiots need to be arrested on site and forcefully if needed. Accountability is needed by anyone in that mob. Its not difficult.

They are and then democrat AGs are letting them go to continue their behavior (and also murder people).

 

[huskeroption2003]

Conservatives + Russian news = God's little angels

 

[starbrown]

Conservatives + Russian news = God's little angels

 

[mwulf]

Interesting read

 

[John_J_Rambo]

Interesting read

View embedded media

is believing the election is being shaped by conspiracy theories a conspiracy theory?

 

[jmliehr]

is believing the election is being shaped by conspiracy theories a conspiracy theory?

Have we reached Inception here?

 

[John_J_Rambo]

Have we reached Inception here?

no. just people's constant inability to apply perspective to a very small, but loud, minority. goes for both sides.

overwhelmingly, people are centrists and just want to be happy and left alone. the fringe may use a bullhorn at all times, but they're not shaping daily life. just daily news coverage and social media trends.

fact: the most liked tweet ever had just over 6 million likes. there are 350 million people in the US.

context, as always, is your friend, regardless of which side of the aisle you fall on.

 

[GammaxuvirHusker]

Interesting read

View embedded media

Interesting? It's a typical Time article that has all the elements of a left-wing piece - written by a blind to reality leftist whose condescension is only outdone by the sheer amount of gas lighting and strawman arguments she puts forth.

Strawman - "Trump is a hero safeguarding the world from a “deep state” cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles, Democratic politicians and Hollywood celebrities who run a global sex-trafficking ring, harvesting the blood of children for life-sustaining chemicals."

Reality - the US does have a major child sex trafficking problem. Over the last couple weeks federal forces have saved ~200 children from traffickers.

Strawman - "...conspiracy theory, ranging from QAnon to the notion that COVID-19 is a hoax."

Reality - most of what has been reported/recorded about covid is incorrect. Much of the country thinks that nearly 200K people have died 'from' covid, rather than just 'with' covid. It's been politicized to the point that we'll never know the true numbers.

Gas lighting - "A Joe Biden supporter near a Kenosha church told me votes don’t matter, because “the elites” will decide the outcome of the election anyway."

Reality - was this person referencing the Electoral college? We don't know. The truth is that we have one Party in this county that has not only fought against every attempt at legitimizing our elections, but is now ensuring that the next election will be the least legitimate one in perhaps our country's history. They're laying the groundwork to cause mass chaos by mailing out millions of unsolicited mail in ballots and telling us that we will just have to get used to presidential elections taking days or weeks to be resolved. This is no conspiracy theory. They're telling us directly what will happen.

The whole article is full of this type of BS.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

Interesting to compare the last election to this one in the sense that the one side litetally lol'd at the idea there was even a chance they would lose last time....fast forward to now and they are so concerned they are doing their level best to muck up the entire process...both before, and after it takes place.

 

[egaRdeR]

no. just people's constant inability to apply perspective to a very small, but loud, minority. goes for both sides.

overwhelmingly, people are centrists and just want to be happy and left alone. the fringe may use a bullhorn at all times, but they're not shaping daily life. just daily news coverage and social media trends.

fact: the most liked tweet ever had just over 6 million likes. there are 350 million people in the US.

context, as always, is your friend, regardless of which side of the aisle you fall on.

Twitter in general is fascinating. People like to use tweets, likes and retweets to prove the worthiness of their thoughts and generalize those to the overall US beliefs. The reality is only approx 22% of US adults use Twitter. And of those I think 5% - 10% of the users are responsible for 80% of the tweets.

Twitter in no way represents the US demographics, but it is used by media, politicians and activists to justify their opinions and actions.

Honestly it is fascinating how much influence such a small subset of the US has on things.

 

[mwulf]

Muck up the process how exactly? Trying to get as many people to vote as possible seems like it should be the goal of both sides of aisle?

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Muck up the process how exactly? Trying to get as many people to vote as possible seems like it should be the goal of both sides of aisle?

Had the states kept up with the voter registry this wouldn't be an issue. But they haven't, so it mucks up the process. If you have to work this hard to get someone to vote, 1) They probably really don't want to vote. 2) They probably aren't a very informed voter 3) they would have already applied for a absentee or mail in voter application ( if allowed in their state)

If people can stand in line at the grocery store, Walgreens to get their prescription, etc, they can stand in line to vote on Election Day.

 

[GammaxuvirHusker]

Interesting to compare the last election to this one in the sense that the left litetally lol'd at the idea there was even a chance they would lose last time....fast forward to now and they are so concerned they are doing their level best to muck up the entire process...both before, and after it takes place.

The ugly truth is that they are laying the groundwork to steal the election. All the shenanigans we saw in '18 where numerous races went from R to D days & weeks after the election was just a dry run for this year. There's a reason why millions of unsolicited mail in ballots have been sent out and why we're being told that we'll just have to accept that the election results this year may take days or weeks to be fully tabulated.

Their plan isn't a secret.

 

[mwulf]

Had the states kept up with the voter registry this wouldn't be an issue. But they haven't, so it mucks up the process. If you have to work this hard to get someone to vote, 1) They probably really don't want to vote. 2) They probably aren't a very informed voter 3) they would have already applied for a absentee or mail in voter application ( if allowed in their state)

If people can stand in line at the grocery store, Walgreens to get their prescription, etc, they can stand in line to vote on Election Day.

Fair enough lets just hope those lines arent longer in disadvantaged or lower socio-economic areas of the country. Appreciate the reply

 

[GammaxuvirHusker]

Muck up the process how exactly? Trying to get as many people to vote as possible seems like it should be the goal of both sides of aisle?

I couldn't disagree more. We already have too many people with no 'skin in the game' voting. Too many low info voters. The quote below is absolutely correct.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the people discover they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that democracy always collapses over a loose fiscal policy--to be followed by a dictatorship.”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler Woodhouselee

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Fair enough lets just hope those lines arent longer in disadvantaged or lower socio-economic areas of the country. Appreciate the reply

why? wouldn't longer lines indicate that more people are out voting? Shouldn't that be the goal of both sides of the aisle?

 

[gw2kpro]

The only time I have ever voted mail-in was this year in Ohio. We couldn't go to the polls where I live due to covid.

So, my wife and I requested mail in ballots. Same day. Same exact information on the form outside of personal information. Had to declare political party. Both of us declared "R".

Both requested an "issues only" ballot as we had no interest in the democratic primary.

My wife's came in as requested several weeks later. Hers was proper. Issues only ballot.

Mine showed up about a week after that. Not an issues only ballot. Full ballot for the democratic primary.

Called our election office to let them know of the error. They said that it was too late for them to change anything and to fill it out and send it in. OK. Did so.

Filled it out and sent it in.

I have zero idea if:

A) Either of our ballots ever made it to an election office. Might have been dropped into the storm sewer on the way. Might have been delivered to the election office. Might have gone home with the mailman to be used as a bird cage liner.

B) If it arrived at an election office, no idea if they were ever opened. I'd never know if it's right now sitting in a corner, sitting in someone's trunk, or has been burned up in a furnace.

C) If it was, indeed, opened at the election office, I have no idea if my vote was ever counted. Maybe it was. Maybe not. Maybe it was changed to count for a legal vote for something I didn't vote for. I wouldn't know.

Have never had that concern going down to vote in person. Ever.

Maybe this is the proper way to run an election. All I know is -- all time now -- there has been an error on 50% of the mail-in ballots myself and my wife have ever requested.

 

[mwulf]

why? wouldn't longer lines indicate that more people are out voting? Shouldn't that be the goal of both sides of the aisle?

Longer lines have typically been a reflection of staffing and polling place voting availability. Affluent areas are easier to vote in more often than not.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Longer lines have typically been a reflection of staffing and polling place voting availability. Affluent areas are easier to vote in more often than not.

Perhaps there needs to be more local volunteers in those communities.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

Two words I never heard much before 2016.."Gound game"....one side had a distinct advantage and bragged about it. Did they ignore less affluent places in favor of more affluent neighborhoods? ....that's what it sounds to me like you're saying. Intetesting.

 

[huskeroption2003]

I vote by mail. Works great for me

 

[Crazyhole]

I couldn't disagree more. We already have too many people with no 'skin in the game' voting. Too many low info voters. The quote below is absolutely correct.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the people discover they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that democracy always collapses over a loose fiscal policy--to be followed by a dictatorship.”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler Woodhouselee

There is actually a lot of merit to the idea of having a "political class". Not a "ruling class, mind you, but a group of people that do focus on political issues and have a say in what is in the best interest of the country. The average person doesn't have the time or interest in absorbing enough information to make decisions that affect the entire country. Thats kind of the point of having a republic.