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Stock Market: Major Happening?

to me, the markets and cnbc are screaming for the mom and pop retail investor to get back in.. just in time for the coming big sell off.

don't be caught holding the bag.

if you bought when everything tanked, you should be taking profits now.

as far as inflation is concerned, oh yeah, it's coming sooner rather than later, but not in all markets...

I can see food prices going up. Your avg fast food meal is going to be over 10 dollars by the end of the year.

Housing though, I can't see how they can inflate that any more than it already is. Housing is already too expensive and maybe it can go a little higher, but seriously doubt people can afford much of an increase from prices today.

Commercial property is going to be really cheap for awhile. There might be a case for buying commercial property to transform it into residential housing, if you can get the zoning worked out with the local officials.

Used car prices are already super low, so I could actually see those prices rebounding. Buy a nice used car now while they are cheap I guess.

New car prices have to go up. Unit sales are down, so I think per unit price has to go up.

Gold, maybe it will act as a hedge against inflation, but as soon as it goes up, who are you going to sell it to?

I have a hard time finding places to put one's wealth to be honest. Over the long term, the stock market it probably the safest place, unless you think the dollar is going to crash and burn, which while possible, every other currency out there would have to burn first, and unless there was some grand move into crypto, which is still a scam right now, you're probably better off staying sort of diversified and in the system.

Where do you see putting your wealth to take advantage of the coming inflation?

A lot of good stuff there, but don't count on inflation for a while. Just think back to 2008. What did the best during 08 and 09? The dollar. This time around we are something between 9 and 11 times the amount of global derivatives as we were back then, so foreign currencies are going to absolutely tank. There's going to be a huge demand for dollars, several times what it was back in March.

I don't think people realize how close we got to a collapse last September or in March. We are on the brink of a major, major depression.
 
A lot of good stuff there, but don't count on inflation for a while. Just think back to 2008. What did the best during 08 and 09? The dollar. This time around we are something between 9 and 11 times the amount of global derivatives as we were back then, so foreign currencies are going to absolutely tank. There's going to be a huge demand for dollars, several times what it was back in March.

I don't think people realize how close we got to a collapse last September or in March. We are on the brink of a major, major depression.

well, you must be from iowa because thats a buncha bullsh1t.Winking
really though, i hope not, but nothing would surprise me...
 
I'm 60 and my wife is 62, so we are pretty close to retirement. We lost a buttload in March but got most of it back. We just moved most of our money to a guaranteed fund. Yes, I know we may give up some $$. But I did the math and I'll take 3% over a possible 8% or so. I just can't afford to drop 20-30% at retirement time and have no time to make it back.
 
A lot of good stuff there, but don't count on inflation for a while. Just think back to 2008. What did the best during 08 and 09? The dollar. This time around we are something between 9 and 11 times the amount of global derivatives as we were back then, so foreign currencies are going to absolutely tank. There's going to be a huge demand for dollars, several times what it was back in March.

I don't think people realize how close we got to a collapse last September or in March. We are on the brink of a major, major depression.

I think the whole Fed repo market thing has actually cemented the US dollar as the reserve currency for as long as the eye can see. Brilliant side effect if you ask me.
 
i know it may all be temporary, but i've been so hopeful lately.
been busy and have some good activity.
it would suck if its all window dressing...
 
well, you must be from iowa because thats a buncha bullsh1t.Winking
really though, i hope not, but nothing would surprise me...
Keep in mind that 2008 was caused by a housing problem in 4 states. It brought the global economy to its knees. All we've done since then is make the derivative market worse so expect the same, but 10 fold what that was. People will run to the dollar until the economy gets back to stasis. That probably means a 50% drop in real estate and a 70% drop overall in the stock market. Housing isn't coming back regardless, but the stock market will rebound and we'll see 40-50k in the DOW, probably 10k in the S&P all due to inflation.
 
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I think the whole Fed repo market thing has actually cemented the US dollar as the reserve currency for as long as the eye can see. Brilliant side effect if you ask me.
It will for a while, but at some point an emerging market will replace it. I'm still thinking Indonesia but that's at least 10 years out. There's always the possibility that somehow the IMF forces it sooner, but that would be really ugly for us so I have my doubts.
 
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I think the whole Fed repo market thing has actually cemented the US dollar as the reserve currency for as long as the eye can see. Brilliant side effect if you ask me.

It's funny how few people get that side of it.

What most inflationists believe is that the artificial price controls will eventually fail due to supply of dollars.

An example?

In 1971 gold was 35 dollars. Leverage on gold was zero (the price was static and didn't float)

Right now the leverage is over 100 to 1... not sure exactly but it's ridiculous. In the meantime gold has underperformed the market... but think about that a second and you'll see why that won't last.

Point with that? In a scare, gold (and silver) has no upper limit due to leverage and short squeezes.

I'm not even getting into investment bank fraud or the fed needing audited. Just simple market dynamics of leverage.
 
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It's funny how few people get that side of it.

What most inflationists believe is that the artificial price controls will eventually fail due to supply of dollars.

An example?

In 1971 gold was 35 dollars. Leverage on gold was zero (the price was static and didn't float)

Right now the leverage is over 100 to 1... not sure exactly but it's ridiculous. In the meantime gold has underperformed the market... but think about that a second and you'll see why that won't last.

Point with that? In a scare, gold (and silver) has no upper limit due to leverage and short squeezes.

I'm not even getting into investment bank fraud or the fed needing audited. Just simple market dynamics of leverage.
I think there is a place for gold, but I smell a big rat when I looked into the gold markets.

A few years ago, maybe it was 2015 or something, the IMF was trying to sell the gold that all the countries had put in, as their stake in the fund. In 2 years, there were just 2 small sales. One to Sri Lanka, and the other I forget. Not a single central bank wanted to purchase any of this gold. It was only after this 2 year private sale period, that the IMF put the gold out there on the retail market to sell it off.

Then you have actors telling the public to buy gold and all this stuff, and the contrarian in me just see's this as all bs.

Even the big gold bug Peter Schiff admitted that gold was priced at its ornamental value, so wether it's by price manipulation or not, I just can't get behind the whole gold thing. If someone wants to do 10% and have some gold coins or jewelry, no problem, but to me, it's never coming back as a currency.

Overseas though, esp in Asia, the people put a great deal of their wealth in gold. You find gold sellers right at the grocery store, and so maybe it's use as a store of value is still protected? or those people are fools. For sure they have seen their local currencies devalued highly, so for them it makes sense.

I do know the federal government isn't going to let gold challenge the US dollar. So if it were to gain some sort of momentum, I think they would find a way to stop that real quick.
 
I will also add gold has outperformed Buffett since 2000.

Most people don't understand leverage or exponents worth a damn.
 
It's funny how few people get that side of it.

What most inflationists believe is that the artificial price controls will eventually fail due to supply of dollars.

An example?

In 1971 gold was 35 dollars. Leverage on gold was zero (the price was static and didn't float)

Right now the leverage is over 100 to 1... not sure exactly but it's ridiculous. In the meantime gold has underperformed the market... but think about that a second and you'll see why that won't last.

Point with that? In a scare, gold (and silver) has no upper limit due to leverage and short squeezes.

I'm not even getting into investment bank fraud or the fed needing audited. Just simple market dynamics of leverage.

Speaking of gold, I'd forgotten about this. Its Texas, so anything is possible, maybe they try to establish their own currency and dare the federal government to stop them.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-law-first-state-gold-bullion-depository-federal-reserve/
 
I think there is a place for gold, but I smell a big rat when I looked into the gold markets.

A few years ago, maybe it was 2015 or something, the IMF was trying to sell the gold that all the countries had put in, as their stake in the fund. In 2 years, there were just 2 small sales. One to Sri Lanka, and the other I forget. Not a single central bank wanted to purchase any of this gold. It was only after this 2 year private sale period, that the IMF put the gold out there on the retail market to sell it off.

Then you have actors telling the public to buy gold and all this stuff, and the contrarian in me just see's this as all bs.

Even the big gold bug Peter Schiff admitted that gold was priced at its ornamental value, so wether it's by price manipulation or not, I just can't get behind the whole gold thing. If someone wants to do 10% and have some gold coins or jewelry, no problem, but to me, it's never coming back as a currency.

Overseas though, esp in Asia, the people put a great deal of their wealth in gold. You find gold sellers right at the grocery store, and so maybe it's use as a store of value is still protected? or those people are fools. For sure they have seen their local currencies devalued highly, so for them it makes sense.

I do know the federal government isn't going to let gold challenge the US dollar. So if it were to gain some sort of momentum, I think they would find a way to stop that real quick.

They could confiscate again easily. And I completely agree. It's an easy scoreboard which is why I bring up things like that .

From the other side of it... the inflationist side... the reason the central banks don't do that is because the gold isn't there and they know it. They've loaned it all out and china bought it all. It's gone.

Is there a rat? Yep. I think my reason is closer than yours but I could be wrong.

I'd rather be in other things personally. I just don't trust people. Like I said inflation investing is about protection, not making money. Gold and silver have big targets on them by central bankers. Other things don't.
 
"Gold and silver have big targets on them by central bankers. Other things don't."


That could be a double edged sword.
 
"Gold and silver have big targets on them by central bankers. Other things don't."


That could be a double edged sword.

Yes... yes it could. For a while.

I'm consciously accepting that I can't make every penny and I'm not good enough to time a market.

I'm mostly just accepting that food on the table and heat in the winter are what matter. Survival is a win.

Anything I buy I want to have value after. It really doesnt matter what I think will go up in value at that point. I'm diversifying through investing in self.
 
If you want another example I'm fairly likely to redo my kitchen in the next couple years because it's a huge heat leak in the winter.
 
I know next to zero about guessing the market and 401K and Roth’s etc. all I know is I work for the city of Lincoln and put in the maximum that the city will match. I put in 6% of each paycheck and they put in 133% match, or 7.98% and I don’t touch it and let it sit (I have some In high risk high reward and few in medium and some in low risk).

We do get a Post Employee Health Package that the city puts in $30 each paycheck (bi-weekly) and I can choose where that goes (I have some in high risk high reward a little in medium and 1 in safe low risk).

Having said that who and where should I go if the mrs and I want to talk to someone involving stocks and or mutual funds? We are looking at putting $2,500 into mutual funds and letting it sit while adding couple hundred a month. That’s how my parents bought their first home and they were getting 10%+ return. They told us they put $1,500 in and didn’t add or touch it and over the course of a while (less then 10 years), they had over $30,000. Could someone help me out as we are wanting to invest a put more. My wife get a straight match to match for her 401K as a teacher, she puts in $432/month and they put in like $450 ish.

Any input would be great!
 
I know next to zero about guessing the market and 401K and Roth’s etc. all I know is I work for the city of Lincoln and put in the maximum that the city will match. I put in 6% of each paycheck and they put in 133% match, or 7.98% and I don’t touch it and let it sit (I have some In high risk high reward and few in medium and some in low risk).

We do get a Post Employee Health Package that the city puts in $30 each paycheck (bi-weekly) and I can choose where that goes (I have some in high risk high reward a little in medium and 1 in safe low risk).

Having said that who and where should I go if the mrs and I want to talk to someone involving stocks and or mutual funds? We are looking at putting $2,500 into mutual funds and letting it sit while adding couple hundred a month. That’s how my parents bought their first home and they were getting 10%+ return. They told us they put $1,500 in and didn’t add or touch it and over the course of a while (less then 10 years), they had over $30,000. Could someone help me out as we are wanting to invest a put more. My wife get a straight match to match for her 401K as a teacher, she puts in $432/month and they put in like $450 ish.

Any input would be great!

JMO, stay on the sidelines for a while. We are way overheated right now. If you're insisting on getting in sometime soon, make sure you have 20-25% of your investment in an inverse like SH so you have a hedge.
 
Not sure why all the naysayers on this board, Trump has stated over and over this is the greatest economy in the history of the world and will be again soon. I trust Trump above all others when it comes to this. He knows money!
 
Not sure why all the naysayers on this board, Trump has stated over and over this is the greatest economy in the history of the world and will be again soon. I trust Trump above all others when it comes to this. He knows money!
Well, he is going to inflate us out of our public debt. So there's that.
 
Seeing a lot of green last 30 minutes of the day. Nice finish. We are on the way.
 
Seeing a lot of green last 30 minutes of the day. Nice finish. We are on the way.

None of this makes sense. How in the heck is the dollar competing against itself and winning on both sides?

Dow up, bonds up, vix up. Where's the loss? Even foreign currency, gold, silver, and corn are up. Nobody is pulling out of anything somehow.
 
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None of this makes sense. How in the heck is the dollar competing against itself and winning on both sides?

Dow up, bonds up, vix up. Where's the loss? Even foreign currency, gold, silver, and corn are up. Nobody is pulling out of anything somehow.

Fed pumped. Canada pumped. Multiple central banks around the world pumped. Even crypto pumped. Everything is pumping.

I suppose it is their only recourse in the interim as the number of pensions and retirement funds around the world relying on it is enormous. They cannot afford to let it fail until a "final plan" is established.
 
Fed pumped. Canada pumped. Multiple central banks around the world pumped. Even crypto pumped. Everything is pumping.

I suppose it is their only recourse in the interim as the number of pensions and retirement funds around the world relying on it is enormous. They cannot afford to let it fail until a "final plan" is established.

I'm gonna have to noodle this one through tonight. I just don't see how there isn't some form of real time drop in something or another. Unless there's knowledge of an asteroid on its way that is going to obliterate China that they haven't told us about, I've got no answer on how this is possible.
 
It defies all laws of economics, regardless of what school you ascribe to. Everything cant go up at the same time. Maybe I missed a delayed response somewhere.

Did you forget where the money comes from? :)
 
In the late 20s/early 1930s weimar Germany tried something like this. Their market kept going up. Problem was their currency went down just as fast.

So in other words... nobody knows.
The dollar is the world's reserve currency. Used in over half of all transactions world wide. That is a very big deal and it gives us some major advantages in the world today. Politicians (Obama, Pelosi, oh... and McConnell & Trump-- sorry guys) almost break their arms patting themselves on the back for economic success that, the bulk of which, they really have very little to do with.
 
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What do the experts make of digitizing the currency? Supposedly China, Japan, Sweden and a few others have started down this road. It seems inevitable that the dollar will as well.
 
The dollar is the world's reserve currency. Used in over half of all transactions world wide. That is a very big deal and it gives us some major advantages in the world today. Politicians (Obama, Pelosi, oh... and McConnell & Trump-- sorry guys) almost break their arms patting themselves on the back for economic success that, the bulk of which, they really have very little to do with.

Oh I agree. I just have no faith that ALL currencies will remain solid against real assets when they blatantly play with fire constantly for decades and then lie or misdirect constantly in their inflation statistics.
 
The dollar is the world's reserve currency. Used in over half of all transactions world wide. That is a very big deal and it gives us some major advantages in the world today. Politicians (Obama, Pelosi, oh... and McConnell & Trump-- sorry guys) almost break their arms patting themselves on the back for economic success that, the bulk of which, they really have very little to do with.

You can actually make the argument that half of the worlds value-added transactions are what has, and will continue to, maintain the value of the dollar. Its a weird concept because its unprecedented, but there seems to be legitimacy to it.
 
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What do the experts make of digitizing the currency? Supposedly China, Japan, Sweden and a few others have started down this road. It seems inevitable that the dollar will as well.

Will they do it eventually? Yep.

Do I care? Not particularly. It affects me but frankly they can track virtually any fraud anyway. It's another tool.

Now, what are the amish going to do? Who knows. Things like that are why I doubt they will ever get rid of cash totally.

Horse trading is making a comeback anyway. I wouldn't be shocked if it had a huge uptick.
 
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