SIAP: Collegespun Season Prediction with Scores

[nebcountry]

I don't remember seeing this posted on here, but I thought it was interesting to see scores predicted week by week for P5 teams. While entertaining, I'm not putting much stock in the entirety of their predictions. Their article.

The condensed version. They predict NU winning every game until OhSU. Following up one loss with another against Minnesota as maybe a hangover loss? We finish out the regular season with wins, but lose the conference championship to Michigan. They show the B1G being snubbed for a playoff spot. The pre bowl P5 records looking like this:

 

[k9_r]

Don't know if these folks know anything or not but I am soooooooo ready for a season like they've predicted.

Husker season...
Nebraska 40, Fresno State 13
Nebraska 41, Wyoming 6
Nebraska 28, Oregon 24
Nebraska 37, Northwestern 27
Nebraska 28, Illinois 9
Nebraska 27, Indiana 21
Nebraska 30, Purdue 8
Nebraska 31, Wisconsin 22
Ohio State 40, Nebraska 18
Minnesota 25, Nebraska 14 (<----calling BS on this)
Nebraska 25, Maryland 7
Nebraska 36, Iowa 19

Michigan 23, Nebraska 20 (Big Ten Title Game)

 

[nebcountry]

Don't know if these folks know anything or not but I am soooooooo ready for a season like they've predicted.

Husker season...
Nebraska 40, Fresno State 13
Nebraska 41, Wyoming 6
Nebraska 28, Oregon 24
Nebraska 37, Northwestern 27
Nebraska 28, Illinois 9
Nebraska 27, Indiana 21
Nebraska 30, Purdue 8
Nebraska 31, Wisconsin 22
Ohio State 40, Nebraska 18
Minnesota 25, Nebraska 14 (<----calling BS on this)
Nebraska 25, Maryland 7
Nebraska 36, Iowa 19

Michigan 23, Nebraska 20 (Big Ten Title Game)

Ya, I would be satisfied with that kind of season as well. The Minnesota prediction is a head-scratcher. Out of our B1G games last year, we handled them pretty well last year. The clock keeps on ticking, fall practice and games coming soon.

 

[phoenix4nu]

The Iowa prediction seems a little wild. We have a good chance of winning, but it's hard to see us blowing them out at their place.

 

[Nebraska Fan]

quite an improved defense

 

[NikkiSixx]

That would be an excellent result for this team to go 10-3.. it would go a long way towards fan support including continued recruiting success.

I'm not sure how realistic it is, but I would be extremely happy and think that would be an ideal result for 2016.

 

[Cornicator]

Don't know if these folks know anything or not but I am soooooooo ready for a season like they've predicted.

Husker season...
Nebraska 40, Fresno State 13
Nebraska 41, Wyoming 6
Nebraska 28, Oregon 24
Nebraska 37, Northwestern 27
Nebraska 28, Illinois 9
Nebraska 27, Indiana 21
Nebraska 30, Purdue 8
Nebraska 31, Wisconsin 22
Ohio State 40, Nebraska 18
Minnesota 25, Nebraska 14 (<----calling BS on this)
Nebraska 25, Maryland 7
Nebraska 36, Iowa 19

Michigan 23, Nebraska 20 (Big Ten Title Game)

a couple of these predictions aren't really logical:

1. Northwestern isn't going to score more points than Oregon or Indiana. The Cats might have the worst offense Nebraska faces all season long. IN fact, if the Huskers surrender 27 points to NW in 2016, they might give up 40+ to Indiana and ORegon.

2. They've got Nebraska averaging 29.5 points per game. I have a difficult time believing Nebraska is going to win 5 more regular season games in 2016 while averaging about a field goal less per game. Regardless of improved defensive play in 2016, I think the Huskers average closer to 36 PPG.

3. Minnesota will be playing in Lincoln, under the lights in November. Nebraska has only lost 2 conference night games in their history. Both those teams were top 10 teams: Texas in 2002 and Missouri in 2008. No unranked or marginal top 25 team is going to come into Lincoln and win under the lights.

 

[Bill_Callahan2.0]

This is..........interesting.

 

[k9_r]

a couple of these predictions aren't really logical:

1. Northwestern isn't going to score more points than Oregon or Indiana. The Cats might have the worst offense Nebraska faces all season long. IN fact, if the Huskers surrender 27 points to NW in 2016, they might give up 40+ to Indiana and ORegon.

2. They've got Nebraska averaging 29.5 points per game. I have a difficult time believing Nebraska is going to win 5 more regular season games in 2016 while averaging about a field goal less per game. Regardless of improved defensive play in 2016, I think the Huskers average closer to 36 PPG.

3. Minnesota will be playing in Lincoln, under the lights in November. Nebraska has only lost 2 conference night games in their history. Both those teams were top 10 teams: Texas in 2002 and Missouri in 2008. No unranked or marginal top 25 team is going to come into Lincoln and win under the lights.

Agree with each of your points but I think it's fair to mention that logic and preseason predictions are not actually acquainted with each other.

Nevertheless, anything that gets us to ten wins and a CCG appearance is OK with me.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

a couple of these predictions aren't really logical:

1. Northwestern isn't going to score more points than Oregon or Indiana. The Cats might have the worst offense Nebraska faces all season long. IN fact, if the Huskers surrender 27 points to NW in 2016, they might give up 40+ to Indiana and ORegon.

2. They've got Nebraska averaging 29.5 points per game. I have a difficult time believing Nebraska is going to win 5 more regular season games in 2016 while averaging about a field goal less per game. Regardless of improved defensive play in 2016, I think the Huskers average closer to 36 PPG.

3. Minnesota will be playing in Lincoln, under the lights in November. Nebraska has only lost 2 conference night games in their history. Both those teams were top 10 teams: Texas in 2002 and Missouri in 2008. No unranked or marginal top 25 team is going to come into Lincoln and win under the lights.

This is why I think it's ridiculous to predict results of specific games, much less actual scores. You can have a general idea of how a team will do, but it can seem rather illogical once you start getting specific. Often times a team will lose a game they expect to win and vice versa. That's where I think Minnesota comes in-it's the game they picked us to lose that we should be expected to win. Considering we lost to Illinois and Purdue last year(which almost nobody expected), losing to Minnesota wouldn't be that farfetched. But Illinois and Purdue last year were road games-Minnesota is at home and like you point out at night-when we play really well. Even more of a headscratcher is they have us with our lowest offensive output of the season in that game. We pretty much did what we wanted to on offense against them last year. Anything can happen, but that result would be a huge shock considering all of the things that indicate it's unlikely.

 

[DudznSudz]

Don't know if these folks know anything or not but I am soooooooo ready for a season like they've predicted.

Husker season...
Nebraska 40, Fresno State 13
Nebraska 41, Wyoming 6
Nebraska 28, Oregon 24
Nebraska 37, Northwestern 27
Nebraska 28, Illinois 9
Nebraska 27, Indiana 21
Nebraska 30, Purdue 8
Nebraska 31, Wisconsin 22
Ohio State 40, Nebraska 18
Minnesota 25, Nebraska 14 (<----calling BS on this)
Nebraska 25, Maryland 7
Nebraska 36, Iowa 19

Michigan 23, Nebraska 20 (Big Ten Title Game)

Husker season...
Nebraska 40, Fresno State 13
Nebraska 41, Wyoming 6
Nebraska 28, Oregon 24 (<--- I am going to leave this as is, but this could be the loss, not Minnesota)
Nebraska 37, Northwestern 20
Nebraska 28, Illinois 9
Nebraska 27, Indiana 21
Nebraska 30, Purdue 8
Nebraska 31, Wisconsin 22
Ohio State 40, Nebraska 18 (<--- I would say this game is, if not this exact spread, still a really rough game for us).
Nebraska 25, Minnesota 14 (<----I switched this score around)
Nebraska 25, Maryland 7
Nebraska 36, Iowa 19

Big Ten Title Game: Nebraska vs Michigan OR Ohio State, and we lose.


There, I fixed it. I would LOVE a 10-2 season, and now that I look at all of this, it actually seems fairly possible. The only "iffy" games that they have us winning are Iowa and Wisconsin.

I don't know why people are high on Northwestern? Most press I've read talks about their offense being just this side of inept this year (rebuilding I guess). I think we really COULD beat Wisconsin and Iowa, given how this is going to be a big year for us to prove our mettle and it will be emotional for the players due to what just happened, but those are very competent teams usually, and I would not say right now that we will necessarily win those games.

Again, I would be very, very disappointed if we do worse than 8-4, but anything from 8-4, 9-3, and 10-2 seems quite do-able.

 

[k9_r]

Husker season...
Nebraska 40, Fresno State 13
Nebraska 41, Wyoming 6
Nebraska 28, Oregon 24 (<--- I am going to leave this as is, but this could be the loss, not Minnesota)
Nebraska 37, Northwestern 20
Nebraska 28, Illinois 9
Nebraska 27, Indiana 21
Nebraska 30, Purdue 8
Nebraska 31, Wisconsin 22
Ohio State 40, Nebraska 18 (<--- I would say this game is, if not this exact spread, still a really rough game for us).
Nebraska 25, Minnesota 14 (<----I switched this score around)
Nebraska 25, Maryland 7
Nebraska 36, Iowa 19

Big Ten Title Game: Nebraska vs Michigan OR Ohio State, and we lose.


There, I fixed it. I would LOVE a 10-2 season, and now that I look at all of this, it actually seems fairly possible. The only "iffy" games that they have us winning are Iowa and Wisconsin.

I don't know why people are high on Northwestern? Most press I've read talks about their offense being just this side of inept this year (rebuilding I guess). I think we really COULD beat Wisconsin and Iowa, given how this is going to be a big year for us to prove our mettle and it will be emotional for the players due to what just happened, but those are very competent teams usually, and I would not say right now that we will necessarily win those games.

Again, I would be very, very disappointed if we do worse than 8-4, but anything from 8-4, 9-3, and 10-2 seems quite do-able.

I agree with the notes you've added but the scoring is a problem for me. As Cornicator has said, we scored more points than this last year. Then, 390 points (12 games) averaging 32.5/game. This projection has us scoring 366 points averaging 30.5/game. Heck, we averaged 26.9 points.game in our seven losses last year.

I just can't imagine what would cause us to score less this year than last year. With pretty much every scoring element from last year returning and not a significant difference in schedule, I should think scoring less would be an unhappy step backwards. Don't see how that can be predicted.

One other thing, I do think the Wyoming game won't be so easy as that score indicates. Rolling over Wyoming like that would come as a surprise to me.

 

[nebcountry]

Does Banker's defense have an Achilles heal (or maybe Achilles leg) when it comes to spread teams and/or running qb's? I don't know.

Thorson(sp?) at N'western punished us with a couple long runs last year, and they scored 30 on us last year. I could see them scoring 30 on us again this year.

Does Oregon even have a qb picked out yet? Royce Freeman has "it", but if Oregon comes out one dimensional running the ball with Freeman, well, Banker's defense is designed to stop the run.

Iowa put up something like 250 total yards against us last year, with zero 3rd down conversions.It is absolutely foolish to consider one side of a coin, but will Ferentz design a different game plan against us this year? I can see us handling Iowa this year, just like I can see us imploding against Iowa.

The safe bet to me is that TA will marginally improve. It will be the responsibility of the coaching staff to PUT TA in a position to help us not hurt us. If I had to guess, I would guess we'll be doing the 50/50 approach again this year. A 10 win season would be good for this year.

 

[DudznSudz]

I agree with the notes you've added but the scoring is a problem for me. As Cornicator has said, we scored more points than this last year. Then, 390 points (12 games) averaging 32.5/game. This projection has us scoring 366 points averaging 30.5/game. Heck, we averaged 26.9 points.game in our seven losses last year.

I just can't imagine what would cause us to score less this year than last year. With pretty much every scoring element from last year returning and not a significant difference in schedule, I should think scoring less would be an unhappy step backwards. Don't see how that can be predicted.

One other thing, I do think the Wyoming game won't be so easy as that score indicates. Rolling over Wyoming like that would come as a surprise to me.

Yeah I was being lazy. I agree with you guys though, their point spreads are in no way to be taken seriously yet.

 

[Husker Sledge]

Oregon game is about right. If we lose to OSU it'll be by less than 10 points. Still think the Buckeyes will struggle some this year, especially after OU smokes em in Norman. We'll beat Minn by 17-21 points. Big title game is probably accurate.

 

[vic.valiant]

Husker season...
Minnesota 25, Nebraska 14 (<----calling BS on this)
Nebraska 36, Iowa 19

I've been seeing a few articles talking up the Goophers as BIGW contenders.

I just don't see it although in fairness they gave Michigan a heck of a fight and were it not for poor clock management may very well have won.

I think the Iowa score is off as well, I don't think the Hawks will be rolled by the Huskers at Kinnick in what will most likely be a prime time nationally televised game.

They may not be the 12-2 squad of last year but they will probably be a solid 8-10 win team.

Not saying that Nebraska can't win the game but Iowa is gunning for Nebraska and I would give them a slight edge as the home team.

Go Blue!

 

[swissticuffs]

10-3 would be a great season for this program in it's current state...I don't care how you get there.

 

[huntered]

very feasible, just pick another upset other than minny if you wish

 

[Hawkeye_311]

I guess the computer simulations forgot that Nebraska has lost 4 or more games for 13 straight seasons.

 

[leodisflowers]

I guess the computer simulations forgot that Nebraska has lost 4 or more games for 13 straight seasons.

Thanks for your insight. I guess with that logic you fall back to 7-6 or maybe 8-5? We know that since around 2000, you have one decent year every 4-6 years.

 

[leodisflowers]

@Hawkeye_311 Some numbers for you:

1991 10 1
1992 5 7
1993 6 6
1994 5 5
1995 8 4
1996 9 3
1997 7 5
1998 3 8
1999 1 10
2000 3 9
2001 7 5
2002 11 2
2003 10 3
2004 11 2
2005 7 5
2006 6 7
2007 6 6
2008 9 4
2009 11 2
2010 8 5
2011 7 6
2012 4 8
2013 8 5
2014 7 6
2015 12 2