Schools and Football

DudznSudz

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The Daily, the NYTimes daily podcast on current events, today discussed school re-openings, and gave examples from all over the world where this has been tried and the various results. The overwhelming consensus if you ask health experts (NOT politicians) is that, basically, if your community is under control, you can slowly and very carefully, in increments, open schools.

Examples:

- Best example: Norway and Denmark. They opened schools AFTER their infection rate started to plummet, and they did it with younger children first (due to their lower likelihood of spreading the virus, lower likelihood of being seriously ill from the virus, and their much more intense need to be in a structured learning environment due to their age), in groups of 12 students per 1 teacher, or "pods." This helped keep kids and teachers isolated, and this only works, again, if the community around the school is experiencing lower and lower infection rates. Once the younger kids are back in school, and the community is under control, you can talk about having older kids go back using a similar model.

- Worse example: Sweden and Israel. In the case of Israel, they re-opened too quickly and found infection rates in teachers and students shooting up, so they had to close down completely again, which most would agree is a huge waste of time and resources. In the case of Sweden, due to their misreading of how to handle the disease, schools, like their businesses, stayed open, but their mortality rate is extremely bad and the economic hit they took is also as bad as if they had closed. Now, they are looked at as an example of what "not" to do.

- By far the worst example: The U.S., on our current trajectory. The problem here is, school policy is left up to the states. Each state has a different set of circumstances, and on top of that, the federal government's response in providing support and guidance has been abysmal. This has allowed responses to the pandemic to be a mix between sensible and completely partisan. Now, because of all of the chaos surrounding even adhering to safety guidelines among the public, and because we have a growing infection rate in this country overall, the idea of having in-person schooling seems foolhardy and like we're asking for disaster. The podcast ends by pointing out that many school districts are now pulling back and re-thinking what they should do this fall.

Given all of the above, and given the rumblings coming out of conference meetings...I just don't see us having much of a football season this year, sorry to say.
 
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husker2612

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Nebraska has been one of the better states to keep this under control. It needs to be a state by state guidelines. As some states with smaller populations and better leadership are able to better control it. Others states are not able to. Can't punish the whole country with widespread protocols. This should go for football and sports as well. Some areas are going to be able to maintain control, others wont. If there are 2 areas that have it under control in their state and football program they shouldn't be punished because other areas can't. Not everything is a one size fits all approach.
 

DudznSudz

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Nebraska has been one of the better states to keep this under control. It needs to be a state by state guidelines. As some states with smaller populations and better leadership are able to better control it. Others states are not able to. Can't punish the whole country with widespread protocols. This should go for football and sports as well. Some areas are going to be able to maintain control, others wont. If there are 2 areas that have it under control in their state and football program they shouldn't be punished because other areas can't. Not everything is a one size fits all approach.
I mean, sort of. But that is in response to a non-unified, frankly chaotic, approach to trying to control the pandemic in general. Now that we are here, and given the way disease spreads, and in order to avoid unequal and chaotic outcomes among students...I honestly don't know what we're going to do. It's a mess.
 

John_J_Rambo

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I mean, sort of. But that is in response to a non-unified, frankly chaotic, approach to trying to control the pandemic in general. Now that we are here, and given the way disease spreads, and in order to avoid unequal and chaotic outcomes among students...I honestly don't know what we're going to do. It's a mess.
yes, the inability avoid unequal and chaotic outcomes among students is brand new.

this little fishing expedition is a mess.
 

DudznSudz

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So far. Probably mostly through dumb luck that has more to do with low population density than anything else. But given the plan to wholesale open schools at full capacity we're headed for issues. It's inevitable.
Yup!
 

husker2612

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So far. Probably mostly through dumb luck that has more to do with low population density than anything else. But given the plan to wholesale open schools at full capacity we're headed for issues. It's inevitable.
I can't disagree with the dumb luck and low population. I also thinking opening schools in certain areas is a sure fire way to spread this like wild fire. This thing spreads like crazy in close proximity. Having thousands of kids packed in a small classroom for 7 hours a day is a recipe for disaster. They may not be affected but you can bet money they will bring it home to family and friends. Which will spread it only faster.
However, I still think it needs to be left up to the individual state, cities and school system. I grew up in a small town. There were 300 in our whole school K-12. A place like that is going to have a way smaller potential for out break that a place like Omaha Public. It proven kids do better in school. If there are places that that is possible then let them be in school.
 

DudznSudz

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we're being gaslighted on sweden. they stayed open, they won. everyone else closed and lost, but no one will admit it.

Nope. Sorry, random weirdo putting up graphs showing historical averages in deaths in Scandinavia, that is not a proper analysis of what Sweden did versus their neighbors, or us. A quick Google search of simply "Sweden Covid-19" yields:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...munity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/

"Sweden also has a death toll more than four and a half times greater than that of the other four Nordic countries combined — more than seven times greater per million inhabitants. For a number of weeks, Sweden has been among the top in the world when it comes to current reported deaths per capita. And despite this, the strategy in essence remains the same."

There are other articles pointing out that of the Nordic countries, Sweden's economy will contract the least due to never closing things down entirely, but that falls into the category of "sacrifice public health for economics" and that's not something ANY health professionals are saying is a good idea.
 
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DudznSudz

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I can't disagree with the dumb luck and low population. I also thinking opening schools in certain areas is a sure fire way to spread this like wild fire. This thing spreads like crazy in close proximity. Having thousands of kids packed in a small classroom for 7 hours a day is a recipe for disaster. They may not be affected but you can bet money they will bring it home to family and friends. Which will spread it only faster.
However, I still think it needs to be left up to the individual state, cities and school system. I grew up in a small town. There were 300 in our whole school K-12. A place like that is going to have a way smaller potential for out break that a place like Omaha Public. It proven kids do better in school. If there are places that that is possible then let them be in school.
Oh, I see what you are saying. Ok, well, what if there were state or even federal guidelines that allow for scaling of response based on community size, population density, etc? I mean, just because plans are big or all-inclusive does not by definition make them bad.

The problem with what you are saying is that it allows for too many "bad" decisions to get made, i.e., what OPS right now is saying they are going to do (open schools, rotating schedule, etc.) In Omaha, that is a horrible idea. In, I dunno, Beatrice? Blair? Maybe you could get away with that kind of approach.
 
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bingo65

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we're being gaslighted on sweden. they stayed open, they won. everyone else closed and lost, but no one will admit it.

sweden has the highest per capita death rate in the world. sweden's economic damage is equivalent to all their neighboring countries economic damage but with much higher per capita death rate. what did they accomplish other than a higher per capita death rate?
 
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cubsker

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Nope. Sorry, random weirdo putting up graphs showing historical averages in deaths in Scandinavia, that is not a proper analysis of what Sweden did versus their neighbors, or us. A quick Google search of simply "Sweden Covid-19" yields:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...munity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/

"Sweden also has a death toll more than four and a half times greater than that of the other four Nordic countries combined — more than seven times greater per million inhabitants. For a number of weeks, Sweden has been among the top in the world when it comes to current reported deaths per capita. And despite this, the strategy in essence remains the same."

There are other articles pointing out that of the Nordic countries, Sweden's economy will contract the least due to never closing things down entirely, but that falls into the category of "sacrifice public health for economics" and that's not something ANY health professionals are saying is a good idea.
The numbers are right there for all cause deaths. It doesnt matter who posts them if they're right.
 
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cubsker

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sweden has the highest per capita death rate in the world. sweden's economic damage is equivalent to all their neighboring countries economic damage but with much higher per capita death rate. what did they accomplish other than a higher per capita death rate?
Sweden basically the only country with positive GDP growth q1. Sweden also counted basically everything as covid while their neighbors did not, which is why all deaths is a more useful statistic.
 
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nwualum

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I asked this before and no one has ever given me an answer. If the schools say there is no football, do they really think kids aren't going to be together in groups, goofing around, etc.? Especially football players as they tend to have a lot of energy pent up. I'm in favor of high schools and colleges playing unless a school has a huge spike in positive tests. Obviously you don't play if you test positive, but that's no different than being sick, injured, or whatever else keeps kids from playing. Just my two cents.
 
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DudznSudz

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I asked this before and no one has ever given me an answer. If the schools say there is no football, do they really think kids aren't going to be together in groups, goofing around, etc.? Especially football players as they tend to have a lot of energy pent up. I'm in favor of high schools and colleges playing unless a school has a huge spike in positive tests. Obviously you don't play if you test positive, but that's no different than being sick, injured, or whatever else keeps kids from playing. Just my two cents.
I see your point, but I don't think that is a reason to have a season (zing!).
 

mgbreis

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Beatrice has said "Hey, see you on August 12th! Full capacity, full schedule.... errr.... we'll get back to you on the rest!"
 

bingo65

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I see your point, but I don't think that is a reason to have a season (zing!).
the biggest problem with college will be the quarantine requirements. if a player gets a positive, which they will, then all his contacts have to quarantine for 14 days. can u imagine if 2 players came back positive in 1 week? it might sideline 25-30 players or more for 2 weeks. i think the lack of daily testing will be what sidelines college fb more than any other reason. they could play with limited positives if they could test more frequently and avoid large quarantines. how will they play with a quarter of the team quarantined every week?
 

dinglefritz

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Nope. Sorry, random weirdo putting up graphs showing historical averages in deaths in Scandinavia, that is not a proper analysis of what Sweden did versus their neighbors, or us. A quick Google search of simply "Sweden Covid-19" yields:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...munity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/

"Sweden also has a death toll more than four and a half times greater than that of the other four Nordic countries combined — more than seven times greater per million inhabitants. For a number of weeks, Sweden has been among the top in the world when it comes to current reported deaths per capita. And despite this, the strategy in essence remains the same."

There are other articles pointing out that of the Nordic countries, Sweden's economy will contract the least due to never closing things down entirely, but that falls into the category of "sacrifice public health for economics" and that's not something ANY health professionals are saying is a good idea.
and yet Sweden's death loss as a percentage of total population is less than Britain's and several other European countries who locked down. Sweden it appears has reached sufficient population immunity to keep new cases and deaths on a downward trend now. "Lockdowns" are not all that effective at limiting infections. IF they had been, the Bronx wouldn't be where they are now with their ridiculous infection rate.
 
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dinglefritz

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sweden has the highest per capita death rate in the world. sweden's economic damage is equivalent to all their neighboring countries economic damage but with much higher per capita death rate. what did they accomplish other than a higher per capita death rate?
Please show me where you got that information. That's not true according to an article I just read from Reuters.

According to Worldometer, Sweden has had 561 deaths per million citizens. The UK (which locked down) has had 670 deaths per million. Don't let those FACTS get in your way though.
 
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Blindcheck

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I am all for schools trying to find ways to open...but I am also understanding if the community spread is high that they move to distance learning while the spread is attempted to be contained.

I am all for trying to play sports, but I think we will see lots of disruptions as teams might get decimated by positive tests and quarantines.

I do think School districts need to be prepared to close quickly if a outbreak happens, though...

i think it will be a very interesting year...Sports are going to be tough, but I do think it is worthwhile to try.
 

Blindcheck

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The other thing that concerns me about High school football...The average age of a high school varsity official is probably late 50's...so do we have enough officials if they aren't comfortable officiating.
 

cornhustler

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I asked this before and no one has ever given me an answer. If the schools say there is no football, do they really think kids aren't going to be together in groups, goofing around, etc
The answer is because of lawyers. If kids are "goofing" off on their own, then the University cannot be held liable. If a student athlete permanently loses lung capacity because Nebraska’s football team had an outbreak, the University could be sued. I think the president of UTEP is looking for some type of liability protection so they can re-open campus.
 
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cubsker

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What's your end game? How long will the pro lockdown people continue to advocate for these measures if the rona is still a thing? 2022 and you'll still be saying kids can't play football?
 

DudznSudz

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and yet Sweden's death loss as a percentage of total population is less than Britain's and several other European countries who locked down. Sweden it appears has reached sufficient population immunity to keep new cases and deaths on a downward trend now. "Lockdowns" are not all that effective at limiting infections. IF they had been, the Bronx wouldn't be where they are now with their ridiculous infection rate.
No, they absolutely haven't. If you had read that USAToday article, they point out that they are not even at 10% of their population yet, which is nowhere even close to herd immunity levels, which need to be at at least 60% (maybe more like 75%) from the last info I heard about it.

Second, as was just stated in another comment, the UK did not "lock down" until well into their outbreak, because their leader was incredibly stupid, and by then it is often too late to avoid a major increase in cases.

But hey, don't let FACTS get in your way.
 

DudznSudz

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What's your end game? How long will the pro lockdown people continue to advocate for these measures if the rona is still a thing? 2022 and you'll still be saying kids can't play football?
No, until it is safe, though. Right now, vaccine trials are showing a hell of a lot of success, and quickly. Speaking of Sweden, their scientists are saying the antibodies that you develop should make you immune (or have an significant resistance to the virus) for 6 months, by their projections.

When there is a vaccine and artificial herd immunity is reached, we can all go back to work, school, and football. Until then, you're courting disaster by trying to ignore reality.
 

bingo65

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and yet Sweden's death loss as a percentage of total population is less than Britain's and several other European countries who locked down. Sweden it appears has reached sufficient population immunity to keep new cases and deaths on a downward trend now. "Lockdowns" are not all that effective at limiting infections. IF they had been, the Bronx wouldn't be where they are now with their ridiculous infection rate.
15-20% is population immunity?
 

bingo65

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What's your end game? How long will the pro lockdown people continue to advocate for these measures if the rona is still a thing? 2022 and you'll still be saying kids can't play football?
pro lockdown people? is there such a thing? i have never heard of anyone who is in favor of a long standing total lockdown. do you mean a strategy where precautions are put in place but avoid a total lockdown? do u mean remote learning only? or no sports?
i believe i read many scientific leaders believe even some of the higher risk activities could be considered when the positivity test rate gets below 3%. i think the only end game in sight is an environment with 95% mask wearing with social distancing and avoidance of large crowds and a low positivity rate that allows schools to behave more normally and maybe some fans at games. i think thats what many would call best case scenario right now. unfortunately there doesn't appear to be an end in sight. so the best thing might be to do whatever we can to get the rates as low as possible then hope they remain in check as we try to slowly advance our risks
 

cubsker

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No, until it is safe, though. Right now, vaccine trials are showing a hell of a lot of success, and quickly. Speaking of Sweden, their scientists are saying the antibodies that you develop should make you immune (or have an significant resistance to the virus) for 6 months, by their projections.

When there is a vaccine and artificial herd immunity is reached, we can all go back to work, school, and football. Until then, you're courting disaster by trying to ignore reality.
And if by 2022, there is no effective vaccine?
 
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cubsker

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pro lockdown people? is there such a thing? i have never heard of anyone who is in favor of a long standing total lockdown. do you mean a strategy where precautions are put in place but avoid a total lockdown? do u mean remote learning only? or no sports?
i believe i read many scientific leaders believe even some of the higher risk activities could be considered when the positivity test rate gets below 3%. i think the only end game in sight is an environment with 95% mask wearing with social distancing and avoidance of large crowds and a low positivity rate that allows schools to behave more normally and maybe some fans at games. i think thats what many would call best case scenario right now. unfortunately there doesn't appear to be an end in sight. so the best thing might be to do whatever we can to get the rates as low as possible then hope they remain in check as we try to slowly advance our risks
I mean that you are in favor (pro) of locking down schools, not allowing sports, etc.
 

Dean Pope

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Nebraska has been one of the better states to keep this under control. It needs to be a state by state guidelines. As some states with smaller populations and better leadership are able to better control it. Others states are not able to. Can't punish the whole country with widespread protocols. This should go for football and sports as well. Some areas are going to be able to maintain control, others wont. If there are 2 areas that have it under control in their state and football program they shouldn't be punished because other areas can't. Not everything is a one size fits all approach.
I agree with this philosophy. With regard to Nebraska, for instance, if Omaha goes to remote learning why should Thedford? Same is true of high school sports. If Lincoln schools cancel activities and it will happen at some point, shouldn't a couple sandhills schools still be able to play?

Making widespread school policy is a problem in countries with a federal system of government. Schools should be run by state and local districts. Does it create problems? At times, absolutely. But the Department of Education should have been abolished years ago and any impartial observer would recognize that DeVos is clueless and her only interest in her current job is to funnel tax dollars to private and for profit schools.
 
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Dean Pope

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we're being gaslighted on sweden. they stayed open, they won. everyone else closed and lost, but no one will admit it.

Sweden was not that much more open than the state of Nebraska. People also criticized Ricketts when Nebraska wasn't "shut down" and yet here we are.

Having said that, the common theme in the U.S. is if you get cocky, the virus will increase and that's the road we are headed down unfortunately.
 

Dean Pope

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sweden never closed schools, restaurants, or bars.
True, but the older kids didn't go to school and the higher infection rates among kids. The Swedish economist who came up with the plan expressed regret.
 
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HuskerOH

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I asked this before and no one has ever given me an answer. If the schools say there is no football, do they really think kids aren't going to be together in groups, goofing around, etc.? Especially football players as they tend to have a lot of energy pent up. I'm in favor of high schools and colleges playing unless a school has a huge spike in positive tests. Obviously you don't play if you test positive, but that's no different than being sick, injured, or whatever else keeps kids from playing. Just my two cents.
What is the problem with people getting the virus... same as getting the flu. You are sick a few days and then you move on with life. C-19 is not a death sentence.
 
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