RPI

[coolonetoo]

As k9_r mentioned in another thread, we can probably get sub-30 in the RPI with a strong showing in Iowa City. If you're not familiar with Boyd Nation's RPI Needs Report--an estimate of the number of wins needed to reach a certain RPI threshold--here's what it currently says for Nebraska:

45 or better: 6-7 wins
32 or better: 9 wins
16 or better (dare to dream): 13-14 wins
8 or better (OMG!): 17 wins

Two things to consider:

1. Boyd's RPI rankings have consistently placed Nebraska 8-10 spots higher than both the Warren Nolan and official NCAA versions all season. At the moment, it's only a five-spot gap (28 vs. 33) so perhaps whatever anomaly is causing that is slowly getting smoothed out as the sample size increases.
2. Boyd lists 18 remaining games instead of 16, no doubt because the UNO and NDSU games from March are still officially postponed instead of canceled. But we know they won't be played based on Erstad's recent comments. And from what has been explained to me about the RPI formula, home wins against those two teams probably wouldn't help much. And losing one or more of them would be a killer. I'll let those more educated on the formula chime in if they like.

The bottom line is we have a remaining schedule that allows for upward mobility if we can perform. Getting 2+ wins this weekend would go a long way.

 

[RobsterMobster]

So win 10 games between now and the end of the tourney and we should be in a great spot to be a 2 seed in a regional. That’s essentially what I’m hoping for which would be huge for this team.

 

[sklarbodds]

So win 10 games between now and the end of the tourney and we should be in a great spot to be a 2 seed in a regional. That’s essentially what I’m hoping for which would be huge for this team.

I would consider that a very successful regular season (for this year).

 

[coolonetoo]

So win 10 games between now and the end of the tourney and we should be in a great spot to be a 2 seed in a regional. That’s essentially what I’m hoping for which would be huge for this team.

For sure. 10-6, maybe 12-8-ish with a decent showing at TDAPO is a reasonable expectation, right?

 

[RobsterMobster]

For sure. 10-6, maybe 12-8-ish with a decent showing at TDAPO is a reasonable expectation, right?

I think so. A lot of young talent to build on and that experience for those guys will be crucial.

You also never know, pitching stays strong and the bats get hot maybe we do some damage.

First, Iowa right? Haha

 

[coolonetoo]

I hadn’t looked at Creighton’s until just now. They similarly have two “remaining” games that probably won’t be played. Here’s what they need based on 20 games to go:

45 or better: 12-13 wins
32 or better: 14-15 wins
16 or better: 19 wins
8 or better: Can’t get there

The Bluejays need to dominate the rest of the way. And the Big East tournament is pretty much guaranteed to drag down their RPI, too.

 

[coolonetoo]

I think so. A lot of young talent to build on and that experience for those guys will be crucial.

You also never know, pitching stays strong and the bats get hot maybe we do some damage.

First, Iowa right? Haha

I like the fact that the young, talented guys are mostly position players and we are heavy in experience on the mound, especially the with weekend starters. A great combination in my mind.

It absolutely starts with Iowa. We haven’t won a series against Heller, which is ridiculous. He’s a solid coach but it’s not like he’s Mike Martin or George Horton.

 

[RobsterMobster]

I like the fact that the young, talented guys are mostly position players and we are heavy in experience on the mound, especially the with weekend starters. A great combination in my mind.

It absolutely starts with Iowa. We haven’t won a series against Heller, which is ridiculous. He’s a solid coach but it’s not like he’s Mike Martin or George Horton.

2/3 games would be perfect. Then we have our toughest match ups at home to finish the year. We just have to avoid any injuries playing on Northwestern's Sandlot field.

 

[k9_r]

Boyd's RPI rankings have consistently placed Nebraska 8-10 spots higher than both the Warren Nolan and official NCAA versions all season.

Boyd's rankings are simply wrong, sad to say. And the explanation begins with his disclaimer where he says, "I can't always tell what will be called a neutral-site game versus an off-site home game for one team."

He moved our Oregon St and Sam Houston St games to the "Away-Loss" column and our Texas Tech game to the "Home-Win" column. Here he followed the box score and ignored the site. He does this up and down his RPI list.

This results in an incorrect adjusted record and, remember now, the adjusted record is a big deal in RPI calcs.

Boyd's adjusted record for Nebraska is 21.9 - 8.9
Our actual adjusted record is 22.2 - 10.4.

I know what he did b/c I punched up a spreadsheet to try and duplicate his result. It fell right into place when I moved those games from neutral site to home/away according to last bats in the box score. I duplicated his results.

 

[coolonetoo]

2/3 games would be perfect. Then we have our toughest match ups at home to finish the year. We just have to avoid any injuries playing on Northwestern's Sandlot field.

Northwestern renovated Miller Park a few years back. Now it’s actually better than a typical Nebraska high school field.

 

[k9_r]

I like the fact that the young, talented guys are mostly position players and we are heavy in experience on the mound, especially the with weekend starters. A great combination in my mind.

A HUGE factor in our success so far.

Great, young talent at the plate (big, happy surprise too) and senior coolness on the mound. All good things.

 

[sklarbodds]

I punched up a spreadsheet to try and duplicate his result

I admire the effort and have come to the conclusion that you are more invested in this than me

 

[k9_r]

I admire the effort and have come to the conclusion that you are more invested in this than me

Well if you were a 76 YO retired guy...
I mean, what else have I got to do?

 

[coolonetoo]

Boyd's rankings are simply wrong, sad to say. And the explanation begins with his disclaimer where he says, "I can't always tell what will be called a neutral-site game versus an off-site home game for one team."

He moved our Oregon St and Sam Houston St games to the "Away-Loss" column and our Texas St game to the "Home-Win" column. Here he followed the box score and ignored the site. He does this up and down his RPI list.

This results in an incorrect adjusted record and, remember now, the adjusted record is a big deal in RPI calcs.

Boyd's adjusted record for Nebraska is 21.9 - 8.9
Our actual adjusted record is 22.2 - 10.4.

I know what he did b/c I punched up a spreadsheet to try and duplicate his result. It fell right into place when I moved those games from neutral site to home/away according to last bats in the box score. I duplicated his results.

I expected that’s where the problem was so thanks for the confirmation. But that also means his rating of Nebraska will become more accurate (though still wrong) as the season progresses. Assuming there are no more similar errors.

Secondly, I hereby nominate k9_r for the position of OBRE (Official Board RPI Expert.) Do I hear a second?

 

[sklarbodds]

I hereby nominate k9_r for the position of OBRE (Official Board RPI Expert.) Do I hear a second?

Second

 

[k9_r]

I expected that’s where the problem was so thanks for the confirmation. But that also means his rating of Nebraska will become more accurate (though still wrong) as the season progresses. Assuming there are no more similar errors.

Secondly, I hereby nominate k9_r for the position of OBRE (Official Board RPI Expert.) Do I hear a second?

Seriously, I built a spreadsheet to calculate Husker RPI and make projections using different scenarios for upcoming wins/losses. Kept it up for a few years but pretty much abandoned it this year. Maybe I'll heat it back up next month. It's kind of a dreary task tho.

Accuracy was pretty close but I couldn't account for what other teams did and how their results would slip them ahead or behind us. That requires a giant data base and I ain't up to that.

 

[RobsterMobster]

Well if you were a 76 YO retired guy...
I mean, what else have I got to do?

This made me chuckle. Regardless we appreciate your dedication.

 

[k9_r]

Well, RPI 39. Lost five spots. What's next?

 

[RobsterMobster]

Well, RPI 39. Lost five spots. What's next?

Ha, it’s that “above 35 RPI curse” I mentioned.

 

[gunNrun]

If the Huskers get on a 3 game Winning Streak,...
All will be good again
Need that RPI for seeding.
Need a few things for seeding.
Just Win and the rest will work itself out

 

[HuskerFan31]

Just score some freaking runs and the rest will work itself out

FIFY

 

[RobsterMobster]

Warren Nolan has predicted the following to end the season:

Creighton - Lose
Illinois - Win 2/3
Northwestern - Win 2/3
Arizona State - Not only lose the series but swept 0/3
Michigan - Win 2/3

They also have us beating North Dakota State and Omaha again which don't look likely to be replayed.

Record down the stretch not counting NDSU or Omaha: 6-7

Final season record of 28-20 heading into the Big Ten Tourney. Good enough to finish 2nd in the regular season standings (17-7), behind only Michigan who is predicted at this point to win the league with a 20-5 in conference record.

 

[HuskerFan31]

Final season record of 28-20 heading into the Big Ten Tourney. Good enough to finish 2nd in the regular season standings (17-7), behind only Michigan who is predicted at this point to win the league with a 20-5 in conference record.

They are counting an extra win against Michigan State for Michigan.

 

[coolonetoo]

I would certainly take winning all three conference series. I’m confused by the prediction of taking two at home from Illinois (RPI 26) but getting swept at home by ASU (RPI 40).

 

[RobsterMobster]

I would certainly take winning all three conference series. I’m confused by the prediction of taking two at home from Illinois (RPI 26) but getting swept at home by ASU (RPI 40).

My only guess is perception of the conference as a whole? Not sure exactly. Maybe @k9_r can shed some light.

 

[k9_r]

My only guess is perception of the conference as a whole? Not sure exactly. Maybe @k9_r can shed some light.

No clue, I've given up on Nolan's prediction page. Earlier today he had us losing the Friday game at NW (never heard of Matt Waldron?) and beating Illinois + Michigan. Now we win the Friday game but lose on Sunday - beat Illinois, lose the Michigan series. Flipping predictions w/o any games played?

This page bounces around more than a beach ball in a children's volley ball game.

He has Michigan (28-11) improving to 41-14. Helluva finish but says their RPI improves just seven spots (61 to 54), hard to imagine.

A few days ago he had us sweeping ASU, yeah right. Sorry guys, I got no idea what he's doing.

 

[k9_r]

So what's this, 2 hours later?

Nolan flipped again saying we lose the NW series, SWEEP! ASU and win the Michigan thing. Can. Not. Keep. Up.
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Nebraska

 

[gunNrun]

They are counting an extra win against Michigan State for Michigan.

Michigan and Michigan St. play 4 times a season the past few years.
The Home team of this series, hosts on Friday and Sunday only.
While the Away team of this series gets to host Saturday and the non conference Tuesday game.

So far in 2019...
The Sunday game of their conference series was rained out.
Their already scheduled Tuesday May 7th is not listed as a conference game, but I'm assuming that will change.
Also, I'm not sure if they will change the home field since the PPD Sunday game was scheduled to be played at Lansing while the Tuesday game is scheduled to be played at Ann Arbor.
Interested how that will all work out