Postseason Baseball Chat re: Nebraska (4/30)

[Alum-Ni]

Link: https://d1baseball.com/chats/weekly-top-25-chat-week-11/

Q: What do you think of Nebraska's chances at making a regional after not coming up with the walk-off in the rubber match on Sunday? They have @Northwestern this weekend then two straight home series against Arizona State and Michigan (which I think will determine who wins the B1G regular season crown). Thoughts? Thanks guys!

Kendall Rogers: I think the Huskers are definitely in if they win 2 of the three final remaining series. The big one to make sure they win is Arizona State, while you definitely do not want to slip up against Northwestern, which has a bad RPI. RPI in the 30s with a good conference standing? The Huskers are likely in.

 

[k9_r]

Thinking that Kendall Rogers has mis-identified the series we need the most. I'd trade the ASU series for the Michigan one. Easily.

 

[saluno22]

Thinking that Kendall Rogers has mis-identified the series we need the most. I'd trade the ASU series for the Michigan one. Easily.

I think he's weighing the Michigan series with respect to conference finish, and he notes that a solid conference finish will have better optics. So if in a vacuum Arizona and Michigan are "equivalent", I agree in leaning toward beating Michigan being better for NCAA prospects because we will finish higher in the conference standings.

 

[HuskerFan31]

Link: https://d1baseball.com/chats/weekly-top-25-chat-week-11/

Q: What do you think of Nebraska's chances at making a regional after not coming up with the walk-off in the rubber match on Sunday? They have @Northwestern this weekend then two straight home series against Arizona State and Michigan (which I think will determine who wins the B1G regular season crown). Thoughts? Thanks guys!

Kendall Rogers: I think the Huskers are definitely in if they win 2 of the three final remaining series. The big one to make sure they win is Arizona State, while you definitely do not want to slip up against Northwestern, which has a bad RPI. RPI in the 30s with a good conference standing? The Huskers are likely in.

I disagree with Kendall entirely. Say they finish 5-4 with series wins over Northwestern and Arizona State. That would make them 28-20 (15-9) and probably around 4th place in the league. Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois would all get Regional bids with the potential of an Iowa or Minnesota winning the tourney and stealing a bid. I think the only way to earn an at-large with that finish would be to win a couples games in the tournament. Ultimately this may boil down yet again to the inability of Erstad to schedule 56 games.

 

[Alum-Ni]

I disagree with Kendall entirely. Say they finish 5-4 with series wins over Northwestern and Arizona State. That would make them 28-20 (15-9) and probably around 4th place in the league. Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois would all get Regional bids with the potential of an Iowa or Minnesota winning the tourney and stealing a bid. I think the only way to earn an at-large with that finish would be to win a couples games in the tournament. Ultimately this may boil down yet again to the inability of Erstad to schedule 56 games.

I agree

 

[coolonetoo]

If I knew we were going to win one series 2-1 and lose the other 1-2 and could choose which was which, I would rather win the ASU series. Unless it's the difference between winning the league or not, I would trade one conference win for a series win over a good team from the Pac-12 late in the season. The RPI effect is the same either way (right?) but in a way it would show the committee we aren't the same team that went 0-4 against Oregon State in late February.

I think the goal should be to go at least 6-3 over the last nine. Win all three series 2-1? Cool. Sweep Northwestern and split the next two? Fine. Just win six-plus. Oh, and don't get swept in any series. That's a bad look this time of year.

 

[coolonetoo]

Upon further review, the league title just might come down to that series against Michigan. (Man, I hope it does!)

If we TCB in Evanston and sweep Northwestern while Michigan takes 2/3 from both Maryland and Indiana, two wins against the Wolverines would mean at worst a tie for first.

This assumes Indiana loses at least one of its other six remaining games. One series is at Illinois so it's reasonable to expect something less than two sweeps. Iowa could also tie for the title by sweeping Michigan State at home and Maryland on the road.

 

[coolonetoo]

Also, both Michigan and Michigan State's websites list their game May 7 as a non-conference game and not a makeup of the postponed third game from their series in March. If that holds up and there are no other games lost to weather, we would finish 1/2 game ahead of Michigan in the above scenario.

 

[coolonetoo]

OK, I'm just getting way ahead of myself now. The next step is beating Northwestern Saturday and I'm focusing exclusively on that between now and then.

 

[HuskerFan31]

I don't mean to sounds like a dick, but at this point does anyone confidently (or realistically) think we will sweep Northwestern? We aren't too far removed from the first time Erstad took a team to Evanston and they couldn't stay focused because the field was too crappy...

 

[saluno22]

I don't mean to sounds like a dick, but at this point does anyone confidently (or realistically) think we will sweep Northwestern? We aren't too far removed from the first time Erstad took a team to Evanston and they couldn't stay focused because the field was too crappy...

Circumstances are eerily similar as well: That trip was also on the Berkshire Annual Meeting weekend.

 

[HuskersNC]

I think their playing surface has been upgraded enough to not be a complete embarrassment?

 

[coolonetoo]

I don't mean to sounds like a dick, but at this point does anyone confidently (or realistically) think we will sweep Northwestern?

One thing this team has done well is beat bad teams. I don’t necessarily expect a sweep but it won’t be a surprise to me if it happens.

 

[gunNrun]

I don't mean to sounds like a dick, but at this point does anyone confidently (or realistically) think we will sweep Northwestern?

Yeah, I`m around.
Just had a monster week of work.
That, and any, the sky is falling talk wasn't really appealing.
So here we are and I'm ready for some ball!

So, can I confidently say the Huskers will sweep the Cats?!?!
I've put my foot in my mouth so many times...
I'll have to start taking yoga classes to get it up there any further
So nope. Not going to say it. Shouldn't have to.
Let's go Huskers!!!

 

[HuskerFan31]

One thing this team has done well is beat bad teams. I don’t necessarily expect a sweep but it won’t be a surprise to me if it happens.

That is a good point. Like every other successful weekend series I feel we will need 6-7 strong from each starter.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

One thing this team has done well is beat bad teams. I don’t necessarily expect a sweep but it won’t be a surprise to me if it happens.

The thing that gives me pause is that Northwestern is always bad, yet they always seem to give us fits. This is how our series have gone since we joined the B1G(their conference record and finish in the conference standings follow):
2012: 1-2 in Evanston(6-18, last)
2013: 3-0 in Lincoln(9-15, 9th)
2014: 1-2 in Lincoln(7-16, 9th)
2015: 2-1 in Evanston(8-16, 10th)
2016: 2-1 in Lincoln(7-17, 12th)

That's a 9-6 record-not exactly a dominating record over a perpetual bottom dweller(they've only made the conference tournament once-in 2017, a year we didn't play them). We're an even 3-3 in Evanston.

 

[HuskersNC]

And some of the final scores of those games were closer than you'd expect on paper.