Catching up after finally getting home late last night. Watched coaches interviews, pressers, etc. and mostly caught up on news and commentary.
Here’s my fresh look at 2016 and Top Eight Factors (both positive and negative) I believe will contribute to the Huskers’ success (not including the obvious – turnovers and injuries)…
1. Year Two w/Coaches and Systems. This is the most important factor in 2016 because it has the most pervasive, positive influence. Players think less, play faster, react quicker (better chance for forcing fumbles/INTs), more confident. Reduced confusion, reduced missed assignments = reduced big plays surrendered. Offense more comfortable and confident, coaches know players better leading to better, more effective play-calling. It goes on and on. This is by far the biggest improvement from 2015.
2. Lack of Pass Rush. This is the most significant weakness, just as it arguably was a year ago. Imagine this defense with a Randy Gregory. More sacks, hurried throws, turnovers, 3rd and longs, improved field position, more punt return opportunities. Instead, opponents will have more sustained drives, more scoring opportunities, better field position, more big passing plays/broken plays, fewer forced fumbles/INTs.
3. Improved Rushing Attack. Can’t overstate this one. Tommy a much safer quarterback when we can consistently and effectively run the ball. Ozigbo and Wilbon both a big step up from where we were at this time a year ago. Offensive line very inexperienced but more deep and talented that will only get better over course of season. Fewer INTs, better at 3rd and short, more big play potential.
4. Tommy Will Be Better. If this were Sean’s 3-2-1 feature, this would be the 1 bold prediction. The UCLA game showed what #3 can mean to Tommy’s effectiveness as a quarterback. Point #1 includes knowing Tommy better and setting him up better for success. Coaches have history of 2nd year improvement with turnover-prone QBs so playing the odds on this.
5. Special Teams. Losing DPE cost us games last season. Love Westy but as a punt returner he’s only a reliable fair catch. With DPE back or Spielman or other, that’s an upgrade. So would anybody as kick returner. Also more athletes/LBs for return defense teams. More big plays, better field position. I was higher on this before losing Foltz. That hurts.
6. Kalu and Jones. Like at running back, a big step up from where we started a year ago with Rose and Davie, who each started five games and combined for one INT. Nebraska went 3-1 with sophomores Kalu and Jones as starting corners, 3-6 in all other games. Kalu and Jones combined for 5 INTs, are better and more experienced, particularly Jones. In their only loss (Iowa), they only gave up 97 yards passing (9-16-0) to Iowa.
7. Interior Defensive Line/Goal Line Defense a Concern. Valentine and Collins showed what a force they could be in short yardage situations (when motivated) against MSU that first drive on 4th down. They could really clog the middle. We simply do not have that this year. But this isn’t the desperate situation it might appear to be. Maurice was better than Valentine in many aspects. Stoltenberg was looking great before injury and the Davis twins are loaded with talent, just lacking experience. Still, I’m concerned about short yardage situations. The big OL teams like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State may feast on them.
8. Banker and Those Safeties. Coupled with #1 and the upgrade in talent, experience and depth, this should be a significant upgrade in play. This secondary, including nickel back, could be special by the end of the year. So much mental at this position. We have a lot of talent and experience here.
So how does it shake out? Huskers beat Iowa to win B1G West with 10-2 record, losing at Ohio State plus one other (Northwestern or possibly Wisconsin), lose B1G Championship, win bowl game to finish 11-3.
Here’s my fresh look at 2016 and Top Eight Factors (both positive and negative) I believe will contribute to the Huskers’ success (not including the obvious – turnovers and injuries)…
1. Year Two w/Coaches and Systems. This is the most important factor in 2016 because it has the most pervasive, positive influence. Players think less, play faster, react quicker (better chance for forcing fumbles/INTs), more confident. Reduced confusion, reduced missed assignments = reduced big plays surrendered. Offense more comfortable and confident, coaches know players better leading to better, more effective play-calling. It goes on and on. This is by far the biggest improvement from 2015.
2. Lack of Pass Rush. This is the most significant weakness, just as it arguably was a year ago. Imagine this defense with a Randy Gregory. More sacks, hurried throws, turnovers, 3rd and longs, improved field position, more punt return opportunities. Instead, opponents will have more sustained drives, more scoring opportunities, better field position, more big passing plays/broken plays, fewer forced fumbles/INTs.
3. Improved Rushing Attack. Can’t overstate this one. Tommy a much safer quarterback when we can consistently and effectively run the ball. Ozigbo and Wilbon both a big step up from where we were at this time a year ago. Offensive line very inexperienced but more deep and talented that will only get better over course of season. Fewer INTs, better at 3rd and short, more big play potential.
4. Tommy Will Be Better. If this were Sean’s 3-2-1 feature, this would be the 1 bold prediction. The UCLA game showed what #3 can mean to Tommy’s effectiveness as a quarterback. Point #1 includes knowing Tommy better and setting him up better for success. Coaches have history of 2nd year improvement with turnover-prone QBs so playing the odds on this.
5. Special Teams. Losing DPE cost us games last season. Love Westy but as a punt returner he’s only a reliable fair catch. With DPE back or Spielman or other, that’s an upgrade. So would anybody as kick returner. Also more athletes/LBs for return defense teams. More big plays, better field position. I was higher on this before losing Foltz. That hurts.
6. Kalu and Jones. Like at running back, a big step up from where we started a year ago with Rose and Davie, who each started five games and combined for one INT. Nebraska went 3-1 with sophomores Kalu and Jones as starting corners, 3-6 in all other games. Kalu and Jones combined for 5 INTs, are better and more experienced, particularly Jones. In their only loss (Iowa), they only gave up 97 yards passing (9-16-0) to Iowa.
7. Interior Defensive Line/Goal Line Defense a Concern. Valentine and Collins showed what a force they could be in short yardage situations (when motivated) against MSU that first drive on 4th down. They could really clog the middle. We simply do not have that this year. But this isn’t the desperate situation it might appear to be. Maurice was better than Valentine in many aspects. Stoltenberg was looking great before injury and the Davis twins are loaded with talent, just lacking experience. Still, I’m concerned about short yardage situations. The big OL teams like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State may feast on them.
8. Banker and Those Safeties. Coupled with #1 and the upgrade in talent, experience and depth, this should be a significant upgrade in play. This secondary, including nickel back, could be special by the end of the year. So much mental at this position. We have a lot of talent and experience here.
So how does it shake out? Huskers beat Iowa to win B1G West with 10-2 record, losing at Ohio State plus one other (Northwestern or possibly Wisconsin), lose B1G Championship, win bowl game to finish 11-3.
