I have expansion fatigue.
I liked it when conferences were smaller and everyone played each other. Obviously not the case anymore. Oh well.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
I have expansion fatigue.
Hope you are rightThere is a better chance of OU coming to the B1G then you realize.
thats why we want ku and cu, if we took them and 0u, the big 12 would fold . then there would only be 4 major conferences, which is perfect for a 4 team play off...the texas, west virginia and oklahoma states would be absorbed by the big east, sec and pac 12...each conferance would have 2 divisions. and play 3 non conferance games, in the 3 other conferences. plus with cu ku and 0u the teams would still have connected borders. if you replaced cu with ut it would be a double edge sword, it would open texas recruiting more, and more tv sets, but you would have strife in the conference, because ut would pull some bs with the big 10 network and say they should get more than purdue, or some bs like that.Should Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas and Colorado join the Big10 would anybody ever get above .500?
Oh and btw screw the Domers.
Go Blue!
If and when the big ten expands it wont be CU. Not a pot shot JMO. I see schools that the big ten would shoot for (not saying they would come just schools the big ten would reach out too) include probably number one on that list is Notre Dame. Chances about 5%. I see schools like Texas, Oklahoma, as in that 2nd tier. Issue is academics. I dont know their standing but the big ten is kinda a stickler on that.
The last word of your post is the only part that doesn't matter (relatively). Conferences today are about footprint and eyeballs to get the largest media contracts.CU ranks higher than NU in academics. NU is dead last in the BIG 10 also. CU and NU need to go back to the BIG 12 and ND has to go to the BIG 10, makes sense academically and geographically.
Frankly, B1G academics rank well above the P12 using any metric you wish to choose (links). If you want to use AAU membership, it's B1G 92%, Ivy League 87% and Pac-12 67%.I know the OP was talking about expansion from the administrator's point of view and not the average fan, but living in Colorado, I can assure you that the average CU fan has no interest in joining the B1G. CU has always yearned to be in the Pac10/12, where it rubs shoulders with the west coast elites - most feel the University of Colorado is a step above many of the B1G schools academically for sure, plus CU has nothing in common with most of the B1G school geographically and culturally. They are happy right where they are...yes they miss playing Nebraska but they still have little brother CSU to kick around, so that will suffice.
Frankly, B1G academics rank well above the P12 using any metric you wish to choose (links). If you want to use AAU membership, it's B1G 92%, Ivy League 87% and Pac-12 67%.
https://herosports.com/collegefootball/ranking-fbs-conference-academic-ranking
https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/us-news-rankings-of-top-six-football-conferences-092012/
http://georgiabasketballblog.com/u-s-news-world-report-rankings-conference/
Howdy Huskers, I come in peace. Below I have copied 'n pasted a recent column by Frank The Tank. Near the bottom he mentions Colorado as a potential B1G expansion school. I have also heard this from a Buffalo alum/insider who said that jumping to the B1G has been discussed at UC BOT meetings. Major issues are that the P12 Network is a train wreck while BTN is a huge success, conference TV revenue same story, Pacific Time Zone, D1 hockey conference (UC currently D3) and better academic fit. Have you guys heard anything about this from your old Colorado buddies?
Tank text begins:
Over the past several years analyzing conference realignment, observers have had access to some overarching data, such as TV ratings, athletic department revenue, population and demographic trends of states and metro areas, and the home states of current college students. However, up to this point, there has been only largely anecdotal and/or unreliable data on a critical piece of the conference realignment puzzle: the specific places where the graduates from each college actually live. As an Illinois graduate, I've long known anecdotally that my alma mater sends a critical mass of graduates to San Francisco and Seattle (generally for tech jobs due to the school's strong engineering and computer science programs) while very few Illini move to Indianapolis despite it actually being geographically closer to campus than Chicago and St. Louis, but it has been difficult to find quantitative data to actually back that up.
This is where a new database from the Wall Street Journal fills the gap.* The Journal worked with a labor market research firm to identify the metro areas where the graduates of 445 colleges now live. It breaks down the most popular locations for the alumni for each school to move to in the United States. What's also interesting is to see how certain locations are conspicuously devoid of particular schools' alums, which we'll discuss in a moment.
(* h/t to Aaron Renn for his original post on this Wall Street Journal database. If you're interested in urban development and demographic issues, he is one of the best writers out there.)
For someone that's interested in conference realignment and the college sports business in general, this database is a legitimate treasure trove. As soon as I was made aware of this Journal site, I went through each of the Big Ten schools to identify the top metro areas for each of their respective graduates. Here is the chart I put together with each of the Big Ten schools on top, applicable metropolitan areas listed on the side, and a tier number assigned whenever a market comes up as a top destination for a school's graduates:
Key:
Tier 1 = 10% or more of a school's graduates live in that market
Tier 2 = 5% - 9.99% of a school's graduates live in that market
Tier 3 = 1% - 4.99% of a school's graduates live in that market
Dash = Not a measurable destination for a school's graduates
After creating this chart in my full dorkdom, there are some key takeaways:
FOUR CITIES ARE TOP DESTINATIONS FOR ALL BIG TEN SCHOOLS... AND NONE OF THEM ARE IN THE MIDWEST
There are only four markets in the entire country that drew more than 1% of the graduates from every single Big Ten school: New York, Los Angeles, Washington and San Francisco. None of these metro areas are located in the Midwest. Not even Chicago, the heart of the Big Ten, covered every single conference school, albeit the two sub-1% exceptions are the latest East Coast additions of Maryland and Rutgers.
To be sure, the Wall Street Journal notes that those four particular markets draw from a much wider range of colleges across the country. The sheer sizes of the New York and Los Angeles markets swallow up a lot of college grads and all four of the cities have strengths in industries that attract a national talent pool: finance in New York, entertainment in Los Angeles**, tech in San Francisco, and government and politics in Washington.
(** My favorite Big Ten-to-Hollywood story at the moment: former Penn State basketball player Joonas Suotamo is taking over the role of Chewbacca. Also, while this isn't reflected in the domestic data, the Big Ten will have a monopoly on Americans in the British royal family after this weekend when Hollywood actress and Northwestern alum Meghan Markle marries Prince Harry.)
Still, the Big Ten's top-to-bottom presence in those four markets is noteworthy because the only other Division I conference that has every member in those same markets is the Ivy League... and all of the Ivy League schools are in relatively close proximity to New York and Washington. Interestingly enough, all of the Ivy League schools have at least a Tier 3 presence in Chicago, too.
BIG TEN GRADS LARGELY STAY IN THEIR HOME STATES, GO TO CHICAGO, OR LEAVE THE MIDWEST COMPLETELY
Putting aside Maryland and Rutgers, Chicago is still the market with the deepest ties to the Big Ten by a large margin. It is a Tier 1 market for 6 schools, Tier 2 market for 2 schools and Tier 3 market for 4 schools. No other metro area has more than 2 Tier 1 Big Ten school connections. This isn't exactly surprising with the annual migratory pattern of new Big Ten grads taking over apartments in Lincoln Park and Lakeview every summer (while the older Big Ten grads like me move on to places like Naperville).
Big Ten schools also send a lot of grads to the largest metro areas within their own home states. Every Big Ten school has a Tier 1 connection to at least one market located in its home state. Note that there are many metro areas where the principal city is located in one state but parts of its market are located in another state. New Jersey is a classic example where it's largely split between the New York and Philadelphia metro areas. There are several other border areas in the Big Ten footprint such as the St. Louis metro area being partially in Illinois, the Louisville and Cincinnati metro areas crossing into Indiana. Ultimately, a state keeping a large number of grads from its flagship or other large schools isn't exactly surprising, either. Going home will always be a strong draw.
What's stunning to me, though, is the utter lack of Big Ten grads going anywhere else in the Midwest other than Chicago or a metro area that has a presence in their school's state. Detroit is the 2nd largest metro area in the Midwest, relatively easy driving distance from most of the Big Ten schools, and larger than both the Seattle and Denver markets. Yet, the only 2 Big Ten schools outside of Michigan and Michigan State that have even a Tier 3 connection to Detroit are Northwestern and Purdue. Meanwhile, 10 Big Ten schools have a Tier 3 connection with Denver and 8 of the league's colleges have a Tier 3 connection with Seattle.
In fact, the only instances where a Big Ten school has a Tier 3 connection (much less stronger ones) with a Midwestern market that isn't either Chicago or wholly or partially located in its own state are (i) the aforementioned example of Northwestern and Purdue with Detroit, (ii) Iowa and Wisconsin with Minneapolis, (iii) Minnesota with Milwaukee and (iv) Nebraska and Iowa with Kansas City (which is a market that isn't even in the current Big Ten footprint). That's it... and it's actually even worse when digging deeper because the trading of Badgers and Gophers between Milwaukee and Minneapolis comes with the caveat that there is tuition reciprocity for Wisconsin and Minnesota state residents for their respective flagship universities. In essence, a Milwaukee resident effectively treats Minnesota as an "in-state" school and it would be the same for Minneapolis residents with respect to Wisconsin. As a result, a lot of those Badgers and Gophers are just heading back to their home markets.
If Midwestern metros want to have any chance of changing their slow growth compared to the rest of the country, it's clear that they need to do a better job of attracting the college grads that are just beyond their own home state universities. There really isn't a great reason why Indianapolis isn't drawing at least 1% of grads from neighboring state Big Ten schools like Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State... and Indy is one of the healthier Midwestern economies. Essentially, the Midwest metros with the exception of Chicago have completely ceded their "home field advantage" for Big Ten grads to the coasts and other high growth locations (e.g. Dallas, Atlanta and Denver).
WHAT'S BAD FOR THE MIDWEST MIGHT BE GOOD FOR THE BIG TEN
Paradoxically, the horrific inability of Midwestern markets other than Chicago to capitalize on the pipeline of Big Ten grads that are often within short driving distance is largely a good thing for the conference. The Wall Street Journal database shows that the Big Ten has the most nationalized alumni base of the Power Five conferences from top-to-bottom. As noted previously, the only other conference where every school has at least a Tier 3 connection with New York, Los Angeles, Washington and San Francisco is the Ivy League. More than half of the Big Ten has at least a Tier 3 connection with Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Denver and Seattle. There are 4 or more Big Ten schools with a Tier 3 connection with Houston, Miami and Phoenix, too.
This helps explain why the Big Ten has consistently received larger media revenue compared to its biggest football rival of the SEC. While the SEC might often receive superficially higher TV ratings compared to the Big Ten, the SEC has much more concentrated intense interest from alums that still live in its home footprint of the South. In contrast, the Big Ten might have a little bit less intense interest in its home footprint of the Midwest/Northeast (outside of places like Ohio), but that's compensated by its very broad presence of alums in large and wealthy markets from coast-to-coast (AKA valuable viewers).
At the same time, to the extent that cable subscriber fees that have been largely based on home market interest are at risk for the Big Ten Network, the Big Ten is still in the best position of any Power Five league to take advantage of any new media rights paradigm due to its more national footprint. The New York Yankees have a combination of national and regional advantages that made them the wealthiest team in the radio era, over-the-air TV era, and cable TV era... and they'll be the wealthiest team in the over-the-top streaming era or whatever else might come down the pike. I believe that the Big Ten will continue in that same type of position in the college sports space - they're the conference that still has the strongest combination of home state passion with a national fan base.
DEMOGRAPHICS AND CONFERENCE REALIGNMENT
Let's get back to the four cities that have a connection with every single Big Ten school: New York, Los Angeles, Washington and San Francisco. If anyone wants to wonder why the Big Ten added Maryland and Rutgers, just look at this data. The additions of those schools were not so much about Maryland and Rutgers actually delivering their respective home markets of DC and NYC, but rather bringing the Big Ten product directly to where the league's alums now live. It's no different than why pro sports leagues are so insistent on having franchises in places like Florida and Arizona: it's not that they are delusional to believe that those markets will have great homegrown fan bases, but rather that they are places where transplants from New York, Chicago and Boston can directly watch their favorite teams.
The underpinnings of the bond between the Big Ten and Pac-12 beyond the Rose Bowl becomes clearer here, too. Not only are Los Angeles and San Francisco uniformly popular for Big Ten grads, but Denver, Phoenix and Seattle also have strong Big Ten connections. The proposed Big Ten-Pac-12 partnership from earlier this decade that ultimately fell apart would have fit right in line with the demographic data.
To be very clear, I don't believe that the Big Ten is anywhere near expansion mode.We likely won't see any real discussion of Power Five conference realignment until the current Big 12 grant of rights contract expires in 2025. That being said, the Wall Street Journal database provides a lot of fodder for which markets make the most for the Big Ten in the event that it wants to expand its footprint further along with some explanation for demonstrated interest in certain schools during recent rounds of conference realignment. The following is simply my blue-sky thinking as opposed to any evidence that there will be realignment moves in the near future.
Texas was mentioned prominently as a past Big Ten expansion target and that was a no-brainer at all levels: a top academic national brand name school with a blue blood football program that delivers a massive high growth population state is the top prize for every Power Five conference even above Notre Dame. The fact that Dallas has a Tier 3 connection with 9 existing Big Ten schools and Houston has connections with 4 conference members is just the proverbial icing on the cake. However, the value wasn't as obvious when Georgia Tech was also identified as a Big Ten expansion target. The Big Ten graduate data partially points to why the league was interested in the Yellow Jackets: the Atlanta market is one of the most prominent destinations for conference grads with 9 Tier 3 connections.
There wasn't much discussion about Colorado being a possible Big Ten school in the past, but Denver has Tier 3 connections with every Big Ten school except for the 4 that are closest to the East Coast. I'm not alarmist about the Pac-12's status among the Power Five conferences (unlike some others) and I won't subscribe to pie-in-the-sky scenarios (e.g. the Big Ten adding schools like USC and UCLA). However, I wouldn't put it past the Big Ten to make a play for Colorado in the next decade if the Pac-12's relatively lower revenue makes it vulnerable. Colorado is an AAU school in a major market with a critical mass of Big Ten alums and even in a state that's contiguous with the current conference footprint (via Nebraska).***
(*** As a reminder, the Big Ten does not have a contiguous state requirement for expansion. The league will jump over states to get Texas, UNC or similar caliber schools if they ever wanted to join. That being said, geographic proximity is certainly an important factor, especially if it's not a blue blood program.)
Kansas is also sitting there from the Big 12 as an AAU school with a blue blood basketball program and Kansas City is one of the few Midwest markets that been able to draw non-local Big Ten grads from multiple schools. I have long been on the record that the most valuable single plausible (e.g. no poaching Florida and USC) expansion scenario for the Big Ten that doesn't involve Texas, Notre Dame and/or ACC schools is the league adding Kansas and Oklahoma. Their smaller markets on paper are countered by having national draws in basketball and football, respectively, along with deeper connections to a lot of major markets beyond their home states' borders (such the OU presence in the Dallas market).
I really doubt that Colorado will ever be in the B1G (or anyone from the Mountain or Pacific time zones). I think Oklahoma and Texas are much more likely candidates IF the B1G ever expands again.
I agree, although I would say CU has more to offer than KU re: overall market and viewership potential, Texas, OU, and Notre Dame are the remaining Big Fish. I'm convinced Texas and OU will leave the Big12 for either SEC or BIG. What is interesting is what will Notre Dame do? Their annual athletic revenue will soon be dwarfed, if not already, by Indiana and Purdue.
I just shudder at the thought of Texas big wheels pushing all of us all around (again). But maybe Ohio State, PSU & Michigan would not put up with that.
most feel the University of Colorado is a step above many of the B1G schools academically for sure....
"most" would be wrong...
Colorado would rank dead last in the Big10 were it not for Nebraska.
Go Blue!
Texas won't join the SEC for academic reasons. They're a bit prideful that way. It would tarnish their image.I agree, although I would say CU has more to offer than KU re: overall market and viewership potential, Texas, OU, and Notre Dame are the remaining Big Fish. I'm convinced Texas and OU will leave the Big12 for either SEC or BIG. What is interesting is what will Notre Dame do? Their annual athletic revenue will soon be dwarfed, if not already, by Indiana and Purdue.
CU has always yearned to be in the Pac10/12, where it rubs shoulders with the west coast elites - most feel the University of Colorado is a step above many of the B1G schools academically for sure...
This isn't about academic snobbery. It's about conference revenue. Colorado will be left in the rear sniffing droppings if they stay in the Pac 12. Comcast won't distribute P12 programming and interest in college football is far less in the west vs the east.I taught at CU from 2013-2017. In the rankings in their mind, their peers are Southern Cal, Northwestern and UCLA. In reality, they're a lot closer to UNL (my alma mater), KU, CSU and Iowa — all of which I've worked for as well. Students don't vary that much from one public university to another.
I don't think linking the same article as you linked in Post #11 of this thread is going to change anyone's mind a month and a half later.This isn't about academic snobbery. It's about conference revenue. Colorado will be left sniffing droppings if they stay in the Pac 12.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03...-the-big-12-in-distributions-to-the-campuses/
This isn't about academic snobbery. It's about conference revenue. Colorado will be left in the rear sniffing droppings if they stay in the Pac 12. Comcast won't distribute P12 programming and interest in college football is far less in the west vs the east./
My thoughts as well as far as the average fan has no desire to go east. PAC is the place that makes sense for cu.I know the OP was talking about expansion from the administrator's point of view and not the average fan, but living in Colorado, I can assure you that the average CU fan has no interest in joining the B1G. CU has always yearned to be in the Pac10/12, where it rubs shoulders with the west coast elites - most feel the University of Colorado is a step above many of the B1G schools academically for sure, plus CU has nothing in common with most of the B1G school geographically and culturally. They are happy right where they are...yes they miss playing Nebraska but they still have little brother CSU to kick around, so that will suffice.
They are not keeping it hush hush if it is leaving the BIG offices. Shouldn't be telling anyone no matter how good a friend. That's what supposedly sunk Missouri. Couldn't keep their mouth shut, IF they had an invite.I know the answer to this and The BIG has been in talks with 2 particular teams the last 2 1/2 years and The BIG has done a really good job keeping it hush, hush. One of the agreements that the BIG has agreed to, is keeping these 2 in the West Division and not stacking the deck in the east. The BIG was told if they didn't agree to this, the deal was off the table and they are a package deal. I know who the 2 are. When it is announced, it will send shock waves throughout all of FBS and is something The Mighty SEC will hate and become extremely verbal about it. I will just say that one of my sources is friend that a higher up in The BIG offices. I've known since the beginning of the talks. This is all I will say!
I never once said who the 2 were and won'tThey are not keeping it hush hush if it is leaving the BIG offices. Shouldn't be telling anyone no matter how good a friend. That's what supposedly sunk Missouri. Couldn't keep their mouth shut, IF they had an invite.
Understand. But still risky if you are in the know and your name is not Delaney.I never once said who the 2 were and won't
I know the answer to this and The BIG has been in talks with 2 particular teams the last 2 1/2 years and The BIG has done a really good job keeping it hush, hush. One of the agreements that the BIG has agreed to, is keeping these 2 in the West Division and not stacking the deck in the east which they will not like this one bit as they can't do anything about it. The BIG was told if they didn't agree to this, the deal was off the table and they are a package deal. I know who the 2 are. When it is announced, it will send shock waves throughout all of FBS and is something The Mighty SEC will hate and become extremely verbal about it. I will just say that one of my sources is friend that a higher up in The BIG offices. I've known since the beginning of the talks. This is all I will say!
OU is not going anywhere.Missouri and Oklahoma. Cool.
At a certain point, it will become a matter of the Big 12's imminent collapse (not as unstable as once was, however) and four remaining Power conferences break off from FBS. Couple that with TV markets/footprints, and Oklahoma is an appealing candidate if for no other reason to play keep away from the SEC.Again, outside of Texas, what school/market does not dilute the current revenue structure?
OU is not going anywhere.
there is no better spot for them in america but where they are.
the B12 is their league and there is no other league where that would be the case.
its not always about maximizing the absolute most $$
its about winning. and OU is right where it wants to be
Missouri would not be a shock, but Alabama would.Missouri and Oklahoma. Cool.
Don't forget Boise St.Sure. The Big 10 can add CU, then add CSU, then maybe Utah, BYU, and then head up north and sweep up Montana and Wyoming. Lol.
Love visiting those states, great places, but the logic of adding any of them to the Big 10- no.