I'm a homer NIU fan but I also think 11 points seems pretty low.
Arkansas State is pretty good at the passes out to the perimeter, they hit the backs on the run, throwing the ball out in front of them. Most of our WR screens, the WR is standing still, we throw it to them, and THEN they start running. Not as fast, and will be easier for Nebraska to defend. I think we run the ball more than Arkansas State does, that's more our game, or at least we want it to be.