Our field of prior opponents who played today...
- Thread starter k9_r
- Start date
That hurts. But I think at the end of the day our at large hopes will hinge on how we do vs the Illini and in the Big Ten tournament. If we can somehow find a way to win the Illini series that will go a long long ways. Unfortunately at this point it may be more likely we get swept rather than win the series I'm afraid.
On that note...Texas is very close to dropping out of the top 100 RPI rankings sitting at #98. If that happens, we went from having 19 top 100 RPI wins just a week ago to 10. BYU and FGCU are not helping our cause.
I been watching that. Stinking losers. We been having a bad second half of the season and those losers aren't helping.
Its crazy how a season can define where you may actually be as a team. After Texas we felt we were a pretty stout club. Obviously we are probably not as good as we may have hoped. I do think we have a regional type of pitching and defense but that offense is what will be our demise if they don't magically hit a hot streak here soon. Really could have used Pat Kelly in the lineup this year. Will Bolt is also another major loss in hindsight.
And Maryland is at 50 with solid prospects of sliding further. And Creighton is hovering around 60 with a strong enough schedule to get into the top 50. If that happens, our record changes from this:
vs. top 50: 2-11
vs. 51-100: 11-0
...to this:
vs. top 50: 5-8
vs. 51-100: 8-3
This illustrates to me the folly of getting too balled up about records vs. segments of the RPI rankings. It might be handy as something else to look at when comparing two otherwise equal teams, but is it on its own enough to make or break qualifying for a regional? No way. Despite what Kendall Rogers thinks...
Been watching Creighton to see if they can make T50. Starting to not like their chances. Nevada (good team) is coming to town and Creighton is not playing well enough to expect a series win. Blue Jays will need to sweep for a T50 rank.
They follow that with a horrible Villanova then a bad four team conference tourney. They missed on a couple wins lately which would have helped. Bad losses to Butler and Seton Hall. They're not playing like a T50 team.
Those head to head comparisons Rogers likes likely won't trouble a T25 team. Those guys get in at a 99.8% clip. Only two missed since the field expanded to 64 teams (1999).
From D1Baseball,com (Premium article - can't link to it):
2003 - #22 Virginia (29-25)
2006 - #25 Wake Forest (32-22)
At 30-ish RPI, teams are at risk to these comparisons. The committee manual lists several criteria starting at record vs T1-25, T26-50, T51-150, T150+. Several other criteria are listed and they use them all.
Since 1999, 13 teams RPI 26-30 were not selected. Sixteen others ranked 31-45 were not selected.
In total, 96.97% of T45 were selected these past 16 years. But the ones not selected don't care about odds, I'd bet.
