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OT: The CDC's most recent statement on what "could" happen as COVID-19

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dinglefritz

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Jan 14, 2011
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spreads across the country includes the overwhelming of our ability to care for sick patients as large numbers of people come down with the illness at the same time. It appears more and more likely to me that there are a large number of people who contract the virus who never show symptoms. That makes it much more likely that this will spread almost ubiquitously across the country. Some who say this may not be any worse than the flu may be right to a point. The elderly and immunocompromised will take a terrible hit. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out from a population medicine standpoint. IMO, we're all likely going to get exposed to this thing within the next 6 months. Hell they're even finding pets testing positive for COVID-19 now. Our society is so mobile that I don't think there is anything we can do to prevent it. SO, maybe it might be best for you own personal well being to get it now when health care workers aren't overwhelmed yet.Winking Please leave the politics out of this. There's nothing ANY politician can do about this deal. NOTHING. They need to stay the hell out of it and let health officials do their jobs. The CDC has plenty of staff and money and have been preparing for this for decades.
 
So basically we can't stop it and people with prior respiratory issues are at the greatest risk. Sounds to me like its inevitable and the high risk people are equally high risk with influenza or pneumonia.
 
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So basically we can't stop it and people with prior respiratory issues are at the greatest risk. Sounds to me like its inevitable and the high risk people are equally high risk with influenza or pneumonia.
The difference is that high risk people are almost all vaccinated against influenza. The death rate in the elderly will be extremely high if they contract COVID-19. Even IF this corona virus was no more virulent than the average flu virus, one would expect a much higher death rate in the elderly.
 
The flu is killing way more people worldwide and there are many who can’t/won’t get a vaccine. Whenever they get a vaccine for CV there will be lines out the door. It’s coming regardless, we can’t stop it. Just don’t buy too much into the sensationalism by the networks. It’s just viewership competition for them.
 
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Does anybody here have data on the deaths? As in, age, health compromised, living conditions, etc.?
2% death rate in China, which is highly rural and all over the map when it comes to access to quality health care

less than 1% death rate in developed countries

overwhelming majority will be able to fight it with their own immune systems. people at higher risk (infants, elderly, immuno-compromised) will likely require in-patient care

vaccine will be available in the fall
 
The difference is that high risk people are almost all vaccinated against influenza. The death rate in the elderly will be extremely high if they contract COVID-19. Even IF this corona virus was no more virulent than the average flu virus, one would expect a much higher death rate in the elderly.

this hasn't been the case so far in Italy, and there's no reason to expect it in the US.

higher than in healthy, young people? of course. 'extremely high'? not likely.
 
The flu is killing way more people worldwide and there are many who can’t/won’t get a vaccine. Whenever they get a vaccine for CV there will be lines out the door. It’s coming regardless, we can’t stop it. Just don’t buy too much into the sensationalism by the networks. It’s just viewership competition for them.
The reason the flu kills so many in most countries is they don't have the access to vaccination and healthcare like we do. I honestly don't the media has gone over the top on this. I'm normally a skeptic of the media, but I think their coverage has been fair thus far.
 
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spreads across the country includes the overwhelming of our ability to care for sick patients as large numbers of people come down with the illness at the same time. It appears more and more likely to me that there are a large number of people who contract the virus who never show symptoms. That makes it much more likely that this will spread almost ubiquitously across the country. Some who say this may not be any worse than the flu may be right to a point. The elderly and immunocompromised will take a terrible hit. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out from a population medicine standpoint. IMO, we're all likely going to get exposed to this thing within the next 6 months. Hell they're even finding pets testing positive for COVID-19 now. Our society is so mobile that I don't think there is anything we can do to prevent it. SO, maybe it might be best for you own personal well being to get it now when health care workers aren't overwhelmed yet.Winking Please leave the politics out of this. There's nothing ANY politician can do about this deal. NOTHING. They need to stay the hell out of it and let health officials do their jobs. The CDC has plenty of staff and money and have been preparing for this for decades.

Take this part out if you want to keep politics out of it, please. I assume just an honest mistake. Carry on.

There's nothing ANY politician can do about this deal. NOTHING. They need to stay the hell out of it and let health officials do their jobs. The CDC has plenty of staff and money and have been preparing for this for decades.
 
In the spirit of the thread I post this:
“I do have to be honest that for the vaccines, the idea that there’s going to be a vaccine that will really be able to be used in a large patient population and a large clinical trial, in the very near future, as in the next few months, I think that’s just not likely,” Marks said.
But it appears they are working overtime on approaches to better treat infected individuals.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/26...ut-drugs-to-treat-patients-could-come-sooner/
 
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this hasn't been the case so far in Italy, and there's no reason to expect it in the US.

higher than in healthy, young people? of course. 'extremely high'? not likely.
IF this virus is only as virulent as influenza the death rate for COVID-19 will be MUCH higher THAN INFLUENZA in the elderly just due to the absence of a vaccine for COVID-19. That is logical. I'm not sure what you're reading on Italy, but they have 21 confirmed deaths now and their mortality rate has mirrored what China reported.
 
IF this virus is only as virulent as influenza the death rate for COVID-19 will be MUCH higher THAN INFLUENZA in the elderly just due to the absence of a vaccine for COVID-19. That is logical. I'm not sure what you're reading on Italy, but they have 21 confirmed deaths now and their mortality rate has mirrored what China reported.
I'm not reading anything, I'm reporting what was told to a large American health system's clinicians and staff yesterday as part of a COVID-19 readiness briefing.
 
I'm not reading anything, I'm reporting what was told to a large American health system's clinicians and staff yesterday as part of a COVID-19 readiness briefing.
The good news is that young children seem at this point to not be severely affected. Nursing home patients on the other hand are going to get whacked by this. Most of them are already teetering and this will push them over the edge. It would be interesting to know what percent of the elderly in China who got exposed to COVID-19 succumbed to it. I would expect us to do much better than China at keeping our elderly COVID-19 patients alive, but mortality will still be high. Our population on average is roughly 4 years older as a group than China's.
 
The good news is that young children seem at this point to not be severely affected. Nursing home patients on the other hand are going to get whacked by this. Most of them are already teetering and this will push them over the edge. It would be interesting to know what percent of the elderly in China who got exposed to COVID-19 succumbed to it. I would expect us to do much better than China at keeping our elderly COVID-19 patients alive, but mortality will still be high. Our population on average is roughly 4 years older as a group than China's.
I agree the elderly will be most affected.

I also don't think this is a pandemic a la the movie Contagion (which is great & worth a watch, btw).
 
I agree the elderly will be most affected.

I also don't think this is a pandemic a la the movie Contagion (which is great & worth a watch, btw).
I unfortunately live with an M.D. who will be on the front line of this so I'm getting all of the information directly that the CDC is sending down the chain. Also unfortunately I don't really think the CDC has any more insight on this than one can glean by reading the multiple outlets available on the web.
 
I know this deviates a little bit but Corona Beer's stock has fallen 6%. If I was them right now, I'd be hunkered down in an office somewhere with my ad agency reps trying to come up with a comical ad campaign in light of the virus to sell more beer. Whether the feedback is positive or negative, you're still selling more beer!
 
Does anybody here have data on the deaths? As in, age, health compromised, living conditions, etc.?
80% of dead are older than 80...75% of dead have compromised immune systems, mostly through cardiovascular issues. It kills 7.5-10% of those who are old or compromised...flu kills 7-10% of those who are hospitalized...generally the same crowd. There are not enough testing kits for Italy, Iran, Korea, China to have accurately identified so many victims. They are making assumptions based on symptoms at the same time of year that influenza, pneumonia are moving through the population. When the numbers skyrocket, inevitably some of those cases are presumed to be covid...most of the deaths will be covid, or they might get covid once they are in quarentine but were there for influenza...all of that data tells us this is very similar to influenza in effect...causes shock to immune system, healthy recover unless virus load is heavy, elderly develop pneumonia, #1 killer of the elderly.
 
2% death rate in China, which is highly rural and all over the map when it comes to access to quality health care

less than 1% death rate in developed countries

overwhelming majority will be able to fight it with their own immune systems. people at higher risk (infants, elderly, immuno-compromised) will likely require in-patient care

vaccine will be available in the fall

The 2% is very misleading...these are people whose symptoms warranted getting testing and going to a packed medical facility, which requires desperation. About 800k americans are hospitalized for influeza...60k die...that is a 7.5% death rate for hospitalized. Can you imagine the fear if they only counted hospitalizations? In contrast the spanish flu infected 30% of the population...an infection was never mild and of the 30%, the mortality rate was 10% for europeans...and >50% for Southeast Asians, Africans, and Native Americans. I am glad that the world is hysterical enough to go through these remediation steps but the mortality rate has to drop precipitously once an infection model is completed. Of course all of it will be estimates and chances of death change with age, ethnicity, health, medical care.
 
The reason the flu kills most countries don't have the access to vaccination and healthcare like we do. I honestly don't the media has gone over the top on this. I'm normally a skeptic of the media, but I think their coverage has been fair thus far.
C’mon man. You seem well educated on this epidemic. They’ve been way over the top.
 
Most hospitals are well prepared and the majority are meeting regularly to discuss how to mitigate and respond. CDC has been excellent. A test kit is soon going to be ready for mass distribution. Hopefully a vaccine follows.
 
I know this deviates a little bit but Corona Beer's stock has fallen 6%. If I was them right now, I'd be hunkered down in an office somewhere with my ad agency reps trying to come up with a comical ad campaign in light of the virus to sell more beer. Whether the feedback is positive or negative, you're still selling more beer!
The stupidity of our fellow man is staggering at times. I mean come on people you don't get Corona from a beer.
 
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