OT: COVID-19 news. Out of over 3000 positive tests in prison
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Yea, likely four times too high.That's a good one.
This isn't because they weren't working on them. It's because both SARS and MERS were either short-lived, or didn't kill many people. But they are implementing what they learned from the research on those Coronaviruses and applying it to the Covid-19 research. That research has given them a headstart.
I think the sciency guys with this on their website might disagree. Antibody testing wouldn't come in play in their calculation for mortality rate. CFR would be a different story. I think cubsker would win the bet.
From the CDC website:
Section 3: Mortality Frequency Measures
Mortality rate
A mortality rate is a measure of the frequency of occurrence of death in a defined population during a specified interval. Morbidity and mortality measures are often the same mathematically; it’s just a matter of what you choose to measure, illness or death. The formula for the mortality of a defined population, over a specified period of time, is:
Deaths occurring during a given time period
Size of the population among which
the deaths occurred
× 10 n
When mortality rates are based on vital statistics (e.g., counts of death certificates), the denominator most commonly used is the size of the population at the middle of the time period. In the United States, values of 1,000 and 100,000 are both used for 10nfor most types of mortality rates. Table 3.4 summarizes the formulas of frequently used mortality measures.
This says nothing about determining mortality rate. It does, however tell us that mortality and morbidity rates are expressed in n per 1,000, or n per 100,000, or n per 1,000,000, etc..
Mortality or morbidity rates are determined by number of deaths of those ill, divided by number of carriers. And there is no way to determine the number of carriers right now. There will be a means of extrapolating that data...after the virus is eliminated, by doing antibody tests on a certain number of people in the U.S.
Regardless. this virus killed more people in one month than the average number of people that die from the flu in the U.S. during an entire flu season...so yeah, this is a pretty serious virus. And you can count on it being around for a while.
Will there be a 2nd wave of it in the fall? With states opening up for business before we've even seen much of a downward trend at all, I think you can count on it being around the entire summer, and well into 2021. Forget about the football season. It ain't happening. I would forget about basketball too.
Yes, their mortality rate was higher, but they didn't spread like C-19. Like I said, who cares about mortality rate, when a virus spreads like wildfire.
App 775 died of SARS and around 40 died of MERS. SARS mortality rate was app. 9% and MERS was app. 35%. Decidedly higher than C-19. But which one is going to kill well over 100,000 people in the U.S.? Mortality rate means squat, when you have a virus with an R naught between 2 and 2.5.
Since the wuhan has been here since at least the middle of january, it's been here 3 and 1/2 months. Thats the majority of a flu season.
First reported in Singapore in February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged and became known as the “Asian flu.” It spread throughout China and its surrounding regions first, and it arrived in the US by that summer.
Approximately 1.1 million people died worldwide, according to the CDC; of those deaths, 116,000 were in the US. Most of the cases affected young children, the elderly and pregnant women. While deadly, the death rate in this pandemic was relatively contained because a vaccine was rapidly developed and made available. There were also antibiotics available to treat secondary infections.
So, a new flu killed 116,000 in the US in 1957.
In 1968
An Influenza A virus (H3N2) outbreak in China led to the flu pandemic of 1968, also known as the “Hong Kong Flu.” It started in 1968 and lasted until 1969-70. The virus responsible for the pandemic is believed to have evolved from the strain of influenza that caused the 1957 pandemic through “antigenic shift” — an abrupt, major change in the virus that results in new surface proteins, creating a virus subtype that humans have little or no immunity to because the body doesn’t recognize its surface proteins.
According to the CDC, approximately 1 million people around the world died from this pandemic, and 100,000 of those deaths occurred in the United States.
100,000 then.
2009
The CDC estimates that between 151,700 - 575,400 people died worldwide during the first year that the (H1N1)pdm09 virus circulated. About 80% of those deaths are believed to have been people younger than 65 — which is unusual. During typical seasonal influenza epidemics, 70-90% of deaths occur in people over 65.
Normally, 70-90% over 65 account for deaths typically, currently looking very typical
https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-01-31-5-worst-flu-outbreaks-in-recent-history
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It literally says "A mortality rate is a measure of the frequency of occurrence of death in a defined population during a specified interval. " According to the cdc, the denominator is a representation of the population. The Case Fatality Rate uses the total cases as the denominator. Argue with them if you dont like it.
Um...the first death in the U.S. was Feb 29th. 2 months. The average flu deaths in the U.S. are generally around 30,000.
Let me ask you something...why is it your desire to minimize this virus, instead of giving it the respect that it has clearly proven that it deserves?
The denominator is the population of those infected with the virus, not the population of the country, or any other population. This isn't difficult. You take the number of deaths divided by those infected. Period. And we won't know the number of those infected until a few years down the road.
Reread what I said, flu season.
Flu season isnt defined by death.
Again, it was feb 6th. Who knows how many were sick prior?
Incubation, unlike other flus,is a week or more of the wuhan.
Death is prolonged as well, three weeks or more.
I am giving the truth, if that seems to minimize it to you, you're wrong.
You point to death totals, so did I in a more comparable way than you, mine were all new too.
Dude, just stop. You're trying way too hard. Because an autopsy was done a lot later doesn't change the fact that more than 60,000 people have have died in the last 2 months from this virus.
Are you going to answer my GD question or not? Why do you and others on this board have this fixation with trying to minimize this virus? Why even worry about it now. You were all proven wrong about the virus a good month ago or so, so why sweat it? Why continue to minimize it? What purpose does it serve?
Taken from the same website.
Crude mortality rate (crude death rate)
The crude mortality rate is the mortality rate from all causes of death for a population. In the United States in 2003, a total of 2,419,921 deaths occurred. The estimated population was 290,809,777. The crude mortality rate in 2003 was, therefore, (2,419,921 ⁄ 290,809,777) × 100,000, or 832.1 deaths per 100,000 population.(8)
Cause-specific mortality rate
The cause-specific mortality rate is the mortality rate from a specified cause for a population. The numerator is the number of deaths attributed to a specific cause. The denominator remains the size of the population at the midpoint of the time period. The fraction is usually expressed per 100,000 population. In the United States in 2003, a total of 108,256 deaths were attributed to accidents (unintentional injuries), yielding a cause-specific mortality rate of 37.2 per 100,000 population.(8)
OK, how about this...Influenza kills app. 30,000 each year in the U.S. Flu season is generally Dec - April. C-19 has killed 60,000+ in 2 months. So the question stands...why are you so intent on minimizing this virus? Go ahead and admit why?
Ok, flu does, but, as I pointed out, new strains kill more than wuhan has yet.
Again, being new, it started no later than mid January.
The person was a healthy person, died with now well known symptoms.
So, January,3 1/2 months.
Will wuhan kill more than forty odd thousand more a month from now? No.
So, it aligns with other new strains of the past.
You're still missing the point. Unintentional injuries can occur to the entire population. Deaths from Covid-19 CAN NOT occur in the entire population, unless a person contracts the virus. That is the qualifier. Mortality in the instance of Covid-19 IS NOT based on deaths divided by the entire population.
Is this your first bad new flu?
I ask, because I give you data that excedes wuhan, yet you're the one ignoring facts to make it worse,timeline.
Then,yu compare it to known flus,making it look worse than other new flus, which I just gave you as fact you ignore.
I can't break your circular thinking on this.
That's up to you.
No, they DO NOT. This virus will kill more in one year than the flu every thought of killing.
Now maybe you guys will finally understand why there were those of us that were VERY concerned about this virus months ago. I hate to say "I told you so" but I knew what was coming. And with opening the country up again too early, we are pretty much guaranteeing that this virus will be around for the foreseeable future. Not only that, but even with the summer, it will probably surge. And during the fall and winter? Look out.
BTW, are you ever going to consider answering my question about why you attempt to minimize this virus at every turn? You've responded numerous times and still haven't answered the question. Still waiting...
What you seem to be talking about is the death to case ratio.
From the same website:
Definition of death-to-case ratio
The death-to-case ratio is the number of deaths attributed to a particular disease during a specified time period divided by the number of new cases of that disease identified during the same time period. The death-to-case ratio is a ratio but not necessarily a proportion, because some of the deaths that are counted in the numerator might have occurred among persons who developed disease in an earlier period, and are therefore not counted in the denominator.
Or perhaps as I said before the CFR.
Case-fatality rate
The case-fatality rate is the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition. It is a measure of the severity of the condition. The formula is:
Number of cause-specific deaths among the incident cases
Total number of incident cases
× 10 n
The case-fatality rate is a proportion, so the numerator is restricted to deaths among people included in the denominator. The time periods for the numerator and the denominator do not need to be the same; the denominator could be cases of HIV/AIDS diagnosed during the calendar year 1990, and the numerator, deaths among those diagnosed with HIV in 1990, could be from 1990 to the present.
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Now, I gave you first year numbers only, goal posts? Months ago, it was doubling every three days in fection.
It took the lower hanging fruit until it ran out and we learned to protect the weakest. It was profected at 2.2 million deaths.
I do not minimize facts, while you ignore them.
I'm pretty much done with him.What you seem to be talking about is the death to case ratio.
From the same website:
Definition of death-to-case ratio
The death-to-case ratio is the number of deaths attributed to a particular disease during a specified time period divided by the number of new cases of that disease identified during the same time period. The death-to-case ratio is a ratio but not necessarily a proportion, because some of the deaths that are counted in the numerator might have occurred among persons who developed disease in an earlier period, and are therefore not counted in the denominator.
Or perhaps as I said before the CFR.
Case-fatality rate
The case-fatality rate is the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition. It is a measure of the severity of the condition. The formula is:
Number of cause-specific deaths among the incident cases
Total number of incident cases
× 10 n
The case-fatality rate is a proportion, so the numerator is restricted to deaths among people included in the denominator. The time periods for the numerator and the denominator do not need to be the same; the denominator could be cases of HIV/AIDS diagnosed during the calendar year 1990, and the numerator, deaths among those diagnosed with HIV in 1990, could be from 1990 to the present.
Which is what Drs. consider the mortality rate. Drs. don't consider the mortality rate based on members of the population that don't carry the virus.
If that were the case, Dr. Fauci saying that the mortality rate being 1-2% would mean that 3.3 - 6.6 million Americans would die. He's never given numbers even remotely that high. He initially estimated 60,000 would die. That's 1% of 6 million, which is much more in line with his estimates.
All I was doing is posting definitions from the cdc web site. Aren't they doctors? Many of the articles I have read, the doctors refer to the CFR.
You should be. You're getting owned. BTW, STILL waiting on you to explain why you are minimizing this virus, that has clearly shown to be more serious than the flu.
When it started, they used total population, some don't know the difference, on many things.
I agree with you, but you're getting out of laymans terms
Some are. Some aren't. Remember, it's a governmental organization.
Here's an example of what I'm talking about. This is from the WHO website..
"Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care."
it's helpful to date these quotes. as you, a person of science, surely understand, the numbers can change -sometimes radically- from day to day.
good to have you back in these threads.
how much money have you made narcing on citizens who aren't adhering to proper social distancing ordinances? bet it's a fortune.
When it started, they used total population, some don't know the difference, on many things.
I agree with you, but you're getting out of laymans terms
When it started, they used total population, some don't know the difference, on many things.
I agree with you, but you're getting out of laymans terms
As per your arguments, clearly you are pretty lost on this topic. Mortality rate has NEVER been expressed based on total U.S. population in any Coronavirus conversations I've seen in the media. None. Nada.
Right. And they explicitly used the word "ratio" to define the first measurement and used the word "infection" to qualify the second measurement.
I think sciency types go by feet. If its less than two, it's 2.2 million deaths in the country.
If it's like three to four, it's like 200,000
If it's actually six feet apart, its 60,00 til it isnt.
The best sciency guys go by meters though.
BINGO! The AAP (American Academy of Physicians) has doctors on record stating 91.6% success rate treating serious Wuhan virus patients with hydro (and they obliterate the VA study for stating the obvious- gave drug very late,not early)....when there is no money to be made, the claws come out. Quick question- anyone got the stats on regular flu deaths this year?
The original number was 2.2 million deaths. If it had gone on infection rate, or,anticipated infection rate,What you seem to be talking about is the death to case ratio.
From the same website:
Definition of death-to-case ratio
The death-to-case ratio is the number of deaths attributed to a particular disease during a specified time period divided by the number of new cases of that disease identified during the same time period. The death-to-case ratio is a ratio but not necessarily a proportion, because some of the deaths that are counted in the numerator might have occurred among persons who developed disease in an earlier period, and are therefore not counted in the denominator.
Or perhaps as I said before the CFR.
Case-fatality rate
The case-fatality rate is the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition. It is a measure of the severity of the condition. The formula is:
Number of cause-specific deaths among the incident cases
Total number of incident cases
× 10 n
The case-fatality rate is a proportion, so the numerator is restricted to deaths among people included in the denominator. The time periods for the numerator and the denominator do not need to be the same; the denominator could be cases of HIV/AIDS diagnosed during the calendar year 1990, and the numerator, deaths among those diagnosed with HIV in 1990, could be from 1990 to the present.
say of 40%, thats 132 million people and a death rate of almost 2% per infection.
I'm not sure how some people think it's some huge number per infection. Anything over 2% is extremely high.
I don't think anybody is trying to "minimize" this virus. I do think some of us are trying to put it in proper perspective though. My problem is that our federal government and many state governments tried to approach this as if we are all like New York City. New York did some of the dumbest damned things they could have possibly done by leaving their subway systems open. IMO, we're headed to a more reasonable plan with social distancing and masks in public especially for high risk individuals. We HAVE to get on with life. Continuing with stay at home orders is NOT sustainable. People HAVE to feed their families. SO, proceed with caution and IF you're one who is most at risk, take care of yourself. Lock yourself in your house if you want. Hell I'm probably going to die if I get it but damn it man this can't go on for the sake of our country. I don't care what political persuasion one is, this is destroying our children's futures.
Let this sink in.... Cuomo announced YESTERDAY they would shut down subways (never shut down) from 1-4am for cleaning-FOUR days after the geniuses at MIT stated subways are ground zero for virus accumulating!
Weird how long it takes for "intellectual" types to recognize a virus incubator when the average person figured that out weeks ago.
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