LOL!! anyone who goes to an organized protest of anything is a nutjob imo.. who's got the time for that?
OT: COVID-19 news. Out of over 3000 positive tests in prison
- Thread starter dinglefritz
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No threats, some people on here are whacked, I just ignore them.
You've just insulted or misunderstood me, that's fine, but nonthreats.
So, are subways open or closed environs? The point here isnt just plain numbers, its people dying of course, but also hospilizations, and the vast majority, those with little to no symptoms whatsoever.
Our testing has lacked those people, so, these tests include them, turning what was previously pushed as terrible harm to a more mild form.
It started at 2.2 million, has been adjusted downwards continually.
Now, without arguing totals, and for you to finally understand something about what we're being told here, just answer this one question.
It was 2.2 million, less and less,fine. But I ask you, 2.2 million of what? Or when? A year from now? The first wave?
If you don't keep the fact this thing isn't going away, just what was that denominator? 18 months from now?
The disease innt going away.
So, answer that question, we hear 60,000, 2.2 million, of how many of us, and how long?
Putting the tests I point to bring context into this, you're still stuck on hunkering down mode.
Everybody that's out of work,their business is shut down,patients waiting for a potential life changing operation, folks like that.
Either that, or we'll see some pretty extraordinary (and long-standing) measures taken to protect the most vulnerable people.
I used to visit my mom in memory care just about every day. Haven't seen her in about six weeks, other than through her outside window. And frankly I can't imagine going back in her building without some kind of pretty rigorous health screening.
Now of course I don't think everything else has to be on hold until I can go see my mom again - that wouldn't make any sense. I'm just saying this is the kind of situation on which we need exceptionally strong safety measures. And given how this virus goes through elder-care facilities like a blow torch, I think most people would accept them.
Yeah, I'm not in hunkering-down mode at all. But if we really are interested in going back to 'business as usual' while minimizing negative oucomes, then it's important to have a good understanding of the science and the corresponding studies being done, etc. The tests done so far are just the tip of the iceberg and have a lot of shortcomings. They can't really be used to tell us much of anything at this point. It's early days still.
Good understanding starts with throwing out models.
We are at 56,800, the last number they threw out was 60,000.
Now, the 2.2 million, revised to 200,000 then revised to 80-90,000 then revised to 60,000, nowadays what?
We will surpass that number soon.
There has been fear thown at us, concentrating only on one side, the worst side.
Those models were the worst side of it, the stories was only focused on death, the lingering effects.
No stories of the hundreds of thousands thats healthy, even after a hospital stay, instead we hear, the virus can harm the lungs, the heart, well, so can the common flu.
I posted about the two doctors from cali who crunched the numbers, googles taken it down now.
We are to be afraid, we have no other choice. Though those doctors findings through extrapolation was flawed, it's been taken down, yet, the 2.2 million for our country is a reminder, those Drs numbers were better.
The 60,000 number will be passed now, right at the time we are opening up. Society, people, we aren't automatons, yet our spirit isn't as challenged by the virus as much as it is our fellow man in this.
Somethings not right when I see this,others responses. I wont forget, not about you, and not a threat.
Many of us wont.
The first to step out wins, it's always been that way.
I'll check your link later, if it's still up.
Knowing what I know about epidemiology, the idea that somehow testing is going to solve the CV problem is ludicrous. It gives us knowledge of how widespread the virus is but at this point there is no way in hell we can test 300+ million people. Even IF we could, 2 weeks later the tests wouldn't be useful anymore. Test sick and known exposed people for the virus and keep working to get a vaccine to the public. Widespread viral testing is just not workable or very meaningful IMO.
Ok, looked at your link
Here's how it finished, they took the worst finding possible, the exception, and against all the other findings, well heres what it said
But those double-digit findings are the exceptions, not the rule. Most of the results to date have shown just a tiny fraction of people have been exposed to the virus, including one survey released this week that found 5.5% of 760 participants in Geneva were infected. Others have found 2% to 3% of people test positive.
How they come to a conclusion all the other findings are exceptions, yet cite one where it's obviously the exception.
They claim 2% and 3%, yet give no links.
They are following WHO on this, either only this story, or,altogether.
And, since youtube is aligned with WHO, and eliminates anything the WHO disagrees with, I stand seperate, and include all things, to be determined by me or others, as to their merits.
WHO is not american, so they get back seat.
I will add, the US is the first younger country,or,those who have the highest numbers of asymptomatic people, as being younger it is found, creates less or less severe,or no, or only slight symptoms.
That leaves a very large percentage who are likely antibody carriers.
Europe, I dont care, and of course, the older the population, like varying ages of people here in different states changes the unknown infected to known, as the virus has greater impact on older people.
But citing europe is folly, so they can have WHO, we have many prominent Drs here.
Besides, I like Taiwan, I also liked the fact Taiwan warned WHO way early, yet they were ignored by WHO, as WHO considers Taiwan part of china, and the official word from china was, it couldn't be spread from person to person.
So, I'd prefer a different approach as to any assessing of these studies.
Oh, and obviously your link is still up, as it complies with WHO mandates carried out by google
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So you are saying a National strategy based off of faulty numbers was a bad idea? I’m glad you finally understand what I’ve been saying.
Ive always been saying that, but what you're not getting here is is this
If both are faulty, why is one only allowed to be seen? Eh comrade?
Were you up past your bedtime?
Who said that we had to test 300+ million people? I’m just saying that there are significant issues with the testing done so far and the link I provided does a fairly good job of reviewing those concerns from a statistical and non-political point of view. People should exercise more caution when throwing out things like ‘50-85 times higher’ as that number seems to be a rather big outlier. It does point out the need for more accurate tests using better methodology however.
I have a general l question for those more in the know. The US was one of the first countries to be hit by this. So logically we are going to be one of the first to get it under control and have the cases to low or zero. So what is the next steps once we get to that point? Do we need to shut down incoming travel from other countries? If we don't and just leave international travel as normal would we just be reseeding the country again with people from other countries who are still fighting the virus? I understand screen people. That is very time consuming, requires lots of man power and isn't a fail safe as it seems the vast majority of people are asymptomatic. If we don't limit or stop travel wouldn't the potential for this to just take off again be very high?
I mean, you are starting to go into conspiracy theory mode here. And using the term ‘comrade’ pretty much says you aren’t interested in having a real discussion. Which is cool I suppose. At least I understand that now.
if you are to remember me, at least have the decency to remember me accurately. ‘He was the guy who stood up for science and truth-in-numbers as the best path forward while others were reacting on emotion and cherry-picking numbers and videos to push their own personal agenda. That Charlie Marlow guy was a truly great man. A saint among saints.’ Stuff like that.
U.S. was not one of the first countries.
South Korea had their first case the same day that we did and they have pretty much squashed the curve to nothing. They are having around 10 new cases per day for the last week or two. One of their biggest threats is incoming international travelers. If you travel to Korea, you get tested at the airport and then you have to be quarantined for two weeks. Then you can play. I was supposed to be flying there today but instead I’m posting in this thread
Dinglefritz is right about the test kits. We don't need 350 million- we need 2-3 billion of them. What if you test one day and get sick the next day? And once you get tested, so what? This could go on for a year or more. How many times do you need to get tested?
Let's face it -every model that has been presented has been way off. We think social distancing has flattened the curve and slowed the death rate, but there is no way to confirm it. Look at how it has progressed in different areas. The numbers are all over the place on both sides of the curve. The other thing I haven't seen is any models on what happens if we shut down the economy for 6-12 months. I'd love to see that but the liberal media would never show it.
Let's face it -every model that has been presented has been way off. We think social distancing has flattened the curve and slowed the death rate, but there is no way to confirm it. Look at how it has progressed in different areas. The numbers are all over the place on both sides of the curve. The other thing I haven't seen is any models on what happens if we shut down the economy for 6-12 months. I'd love to see that but the liberal media would never show it.
Social distancing definitely helps, but it’s impossible to say by how much. I know I talk a lot about S Korea, but they managed to keep it well controlled after the initial outbreak. And they did not have social distancing and lockdown to the same level that you see in a lot of places here. Intelligent social distancing and the widespread use of masks helped out a lot there. Their test, track and trace program worked wonders, but we aren’t capable of putting that into place here.
Korea and some other countries (especially Taiwan) have done a pretty remarkable job of containing COVID-19, but there are some factors in play there that go beyond the government's action. I remember very well the MERS outbreak in Seoul a few years ago. Nobody ordered people to stay home or to avoid malls and restaurants - they just did. So I think there's a cultural tendency to take these situations more seriously and self-impose restrictions. Again I'm not downplaying the Korean government's response, just pointing out that it was aimed at a more cooperative and receptive audience.
I completely agree with that. Just was a little afraid to have the ‘cultural difference’ conversation on this board and where that would go.
Problem here is ,those problems no longer exist, and every study going forwards will be fine regarding tests themselves.Were you up past your bedtime?
Who said that we had to test 300+ million people? I’m just saying that there are significant issues with the testing done so far and the link I provided does a fairly good job of reviewing those concerns from a statistical and non-political point of view. People should exercise more caution when throwing out things like ‘50-85 times higher’ as that number seems to be a rather big outlier. It does point out the need for more accurate tests using better methodology however.
Blind and random, they can't happen, so just sheer numbers will shut up the snooty picky people who possibly dont want them out anyways.
It was sarcasm, this is fact, if the WHO or whomever doesnt like what drs from Cedar
Sinai are doing, it will get shut down on youtube or twitter.
Like I said, youre stuck on hunker. Whats happened isnt imagined, The WHO is not american, yet they run policy for google and twitter.
Having models that are 35 times off,been changed a half dozen times are fine, but two doctors who want to open up things are banned on youtube.
Yea, now those are facts.
Were you up past your bedtime?
Who said that we had to test 300+ million people? I’m just saying that there are significant issues with the testing done so far and the link I provided does a fairly good job of reviewing those concerns from a statistical and non-political point of view. People should exercise more caution when throwing out things like ‘50-85 times higher’ as that number seems to be a rather big outlier. It does point out the need for more accurate tests using better methodology however.
As a matter of fact, I've been working extremely long days these past couple of weeks. Finally kind of caught up late last night. I don't open links on here unless it's a site I know. The FACT is that exposure rates have been much higher than previously thought and that there are WAY more asymptomatic people walking around with the virus than was first thought. Those numbers will vary from location to location no doubt and it would be silly to assign the results to all populations. The problem with the screaming for more testing is that you can only do so much with testing for the virus or viral material.
The MOST useful testing for the longer term IMO is antibody testing to see who has had the virus. The testing of prisoners is especially interesting to me because it gives maybe a more accurate depiction of infectivity and virulence in a static population. IMO, what we see in a prison population may be what we could expect to see in a college dormitory or campus for instance. It would be very valuable to do a randomized antibody study on a segment of citizens of New York City. One could run both antigen and antibody tests on a set number of people that would give you a MUCH better picture of what is going on there than just antigen testing people who request a test.
Google and WHO approved
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/us-coronavirus-death-toll-could-climb-to-74000-new-model-predicts/
He said he believes states are opening too soon.
This is why
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/us-coronavirus-death-toll-could-climb-to-74000-new-model-predicts/
He said he believes states are opening too soon.
This is why
Sweet. I just started. Cut a hole in my mask and going to town.
Hey, kid, how ya doin?
You need to come make an appearance at 5Q's Corona thread. It's gettin' hot in thurr.
Let me know if you need a link.
So, nicotine gum/ patches would in theory be a better option than smoking, I assume
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