I'm sorry you don't understand crypto and how it plays into macro-economy. Check back on this one middle/end of 2024. Look at charts of BTC/ETH/SOL right now. Bull market is already technically confirmed and buying in the ranges right now is essentially free money if you sell towards the top of this next cycle (end 2024/early 2025 it will correct back. This is the easiest trade in the history of trading and this will be the 4th run of this cycle dating back to the first BTC bull run.
You lost me at "as we've seen the past 5 years".....which have been a massive run up in the cost of homes due to 40% inflation in our money supply. Ask anybody who bought a home in 2004-2006 how well their home helped them beat inflation, or anybody who bought between Jan 2022 - June 2022.
I've owned a home, sold it last year, and intend to buy another one in the future. It's fantastic. Never gets old living in "my home". That doesn't mean I don't also like my families current rental home of 5 bedroom 2 1/2 baths, for half the cost I'd be paying if I were to buy the house. I sleep well at night knowing if the market get's squirly , it's not going to effect my net worth at all. If I had $1,000,000 lying around and could spare $200k on a down payment and not care if I lose money on my home, sure. Go buy a home. I'm not in that spot yet, and so for me, buying a house right now with the majority of my net worth would be financial suicide.
Rents are actually trending downward, days on market are increasing, median home prices are falling, price decreases are trending upwards. In some areas of the country this is worse, some marginally better.
The most up-to-date look at housing prices and market trends.
altos.re
And we haven't even hit into a recession yet and the Fed is only going to cut rates through 2025 if 1) something breaks - or, we hit a substantial recession (read - people lose their jobs and have to sell their homes, people's mismanaged 401ks take a big hit and it starts making more and more sense to sell that vacation property we planned to hold into retirement, or all of the AirBNB investments folks made in bull are not peforming and so those get sold off, etc.), or 2) we finally reach a 2% inflation rate which is likely not going to happen through at least 2026, if ever this decade. 24 - 36 months more of 7-8% mortgage rates you can guarantee home prices will start dropping. NOBODY is buying right now. The think the segment can sustain for another 24 - 36 months of this?
The ONLY way you break even on a primary residence is if you assume 7% appreciation. You remove this you are at a loss. Obviously if the value of your home trends down from your loan amount, you are at a really big loss. You also no longer technically even "own" your home. You have no equity so the bank does.
Like all thing investing "it depends" and everybody is going to have a different time horizon and goals for how they want that money to perform. Totally agree owning a home is typically forced saving for a lot of people. But entering a substantial amount of you net worth which is going to be a negative ROI over the next decade if you buy today is irresponsible. Just wait it out right now is all I'm saying.
Also, do you really think the illegal immigrants that are coming into the country have the financial means to buy a home in this environment where you need to make like $200k a year in some markets (or more) to even be able to afford a home mortgage payment? Come on man
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