Over 8 wins is -150 (must wager 150 to win 100)
Under 8 wins is +100 (even money)
The trick here is a simple one but an important one - we have to win MORE than 8 games to win the wager - and that means we HAVE to win 3 out of the 6 "toughest" games (BYU, @Miami, Wisconsin, @Minnesota (back-to-back after Wisconsin), Michigan State, Iowa to end it at home).
Trying to put homerism aside and not use my negative attitude about Pelini's regime being able to get 9 wins/year as an indicator of what Riley and Co. can do (plus that 9-win number factors in postseason games which aren't in play here), I think worst case scenario is that we win one of two against BYU/Miami, one of three against Wisky/Minnesota/Michigan State, and then have a home game against Iowa to get the critical 3rd win - and I think no matter what we are going to have at LEAST a 50% shot to beat Iowa at home.
I am confident this staff will be able to manage the offense to a point where its serviceable against good teams and potentially very good against bad/ok defenses - relatively speaking we should have the athletes and pure running game to be effective in the other "6 winnable" games. Defensively we can't be a whole lot worse against good teams and there just isn't much firepower from those other 6 teams to capitalize on any transition-year struggles/injury set-backs.
Under 8 wins is +100 (even money)
The trick here is a simple one but an important one - we have to win MORE than 8 games to win the wager - and that means we HAVE to win 3 out of the 6 "toughest" games (BYU, @Miami, Wisconsin, @Minnesota (back-to-back after Wisconsin), Michigan State, Iowa to end it at home).
Trying to put homerism aside and not use my negative attitude about Pelini's regime being able to get 9 wins/year as an indicator of what Riley and Co. can do (plus that 9-win number factors in postseason games which aren't in play here), I think worst case scenario is that we win one of two against BYU/Miami, one of three against Wisky/Minnesota/Michigan State, and then have a home game against Iowa to get the critical 3rd win - and I think no matter what we are going to have at LEAST a 50% shot to beat Iowa at home.
I am confident this staff will be able to manage the offense to a point where its serviceable against good teams and potentially very good against bad/ok defenses - relatively speaking we should have the athletes and pure running game to be effective in the other "6 winnable" games. Defensively we can't be a whole lot worse against good teams and there just isn't much firepower from those other 6 teams to capitalize on any transition-year struggles/injury set-backs.
