Nebraska - On The Upswing.

[k9_r]

Aaron Fitt of D1Baseball adds the Huskers to his list of teams On The Upswing.

Nebraska
I walked away from my West Coast swing thinking Nebraska was another team that looked better than it played out in SoCal. The Cornhuskers went 1-2 in each of their first three weekends against quality competition, losing series to College of Charleston and Long Beach State and going 1-2 at the Tony Gwynn Classic (with a win against Tulane but losses to San Diego and Arizona). I always cut cold-weather teams a little slack early in the year, but the Huskers really needed to get it turned around in a hurry if they were going to make a run at a regional. And this week, they got on track, taking two midweek games from Northern Colorado and sweeping a four-game set against Loyola Marymount.

Now, that competition isn’t as strong as what Nebraska saw the first three weeks, but nonetheless it takes a serious toll on your pitching to play six games in a week, and Nebraska’s pitching held up to that strain exceptionally well, allowing just nine runs in six games. The Huskers threw three shutouts on the week, including back-to-back shutouts in the middle two games of the LMU series, as Derek Burkamper and Matt Waldron turned in very good starts. And Nebraska’s bullpen was superb all weekend, turning in 12 consecutive scoreless innings against the Lions. Suddenly, Nebraska is 9-6 and riding some momentum into a very winnable series against struggling Wichita State. This weekend felt like a turning point for a team that is good enough to contend in the wide-open Big Ten.

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/upswing-teams-raising-profiles-2/

 

[huskerbaseball13]

All of our opponents in the first three weeks are playing really good ball right now which really helps even though we went 1-2 each weekend. The next 8 games are important...Indiana St is a quality opponent and may be a tough midweek series but I would like to see us go 5-3 at worst. Shockers are not the Shockers of old and continue to really struggle....Purdue is again one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

I know i'm the debbie downer but 5-3 won't cut it. those teams are average at best (Indiana state) and awful at worst (shockers, purdue). if we can't go at least 7-1 we're not a regional team. And trust me, i was about to say 8-0 but those games against indiana state are on the road and i fully realize we can't win them all.

6 of those 8 games are against teams above 200 RPI. you don't lose those games. period.

ever.

good to hear that aaron is feeling a bit better about us.

 

[OmahaSker]

I know i'm the debbie downer but 5-3 won't cut it. those teams are average at best (Indiana state) and awful at worst (shockers, purdue). if we can't go at least 7-1 we're not a regional team. And trust me, i was about to say 8-0 but those games against indiana state are on the road and i fully realize we can't win them all.

6 of those 8 games are against teams above 200 RPI. you don't lose those games. period.

ever.

good to hear that aaron is feeling a bit better about us.

You are correct. 5-3 against those teams is unacceptable. I fully believe we can do 8-0 and 7-1 would be great. Id even take 6-2

 

[k9_r]

You are correct. 5-3 against those teams is unacceptable. I fully believe we can do 8-0 and 7-1 would be great. Id even take 6-2

We have no business losing a game to this year's WSU or Purdue. Indiana St is a legit opponent but I have no idea how good their midweek game is. Our midweek game is very good. 7-1

 

[Truehuskerfan]

I would say we need to sweep Wichita State and at least win the series vs. Purdue(hard to expect a sweep on the road). Need to win at least 1 vs. Indiana State.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

It's not out of line to expect a sweep on the road against a 200+ RPI team.

If you're going to play a weaker schedule so that you can rack up some wins, then you need to rack up the freakin' wins. Each loss is majorly, majorly magnified when you lose to bad teams.

I'm sorry, it's just not even close to out of line. It should be flat out expected. NO loss to a team like that is ever a good one.

Ever. It doesn't matter where it's played.

We need to stop accepting excuses for things like that or we'll never stop being another one of those middling programs that has an ncaa bid once every five years or so.

And given that we play in a conference with a lot of teams like that, it should give you an idea of how to win this conference every year. Stop losing those freakin' games (whether it's because you're playing down to your competition or because you're just awful to begin with).

 

[sklarbodds]

It's not out of line to expect a sweep on the road against a 200+ RPI team.

If you're going to play a weaker schedule so that you can rack up some wins, then you need to rack up the freakin' wins. Each loss is majorly, majorly magnified when you lose to bad teams.

I'm sorry, it's just not even close to out of line. It should be flat out expected. NO loss to a team like that is ever a good one.

Ever. It doesn't matter where it's played.

We need to stop accepting excuses for things like that or we'll never stop being another one of those middling programs that has an ncaa bid once every five years or so.

And given that we play in a conference with a lot of teams like that, it should give you an idea of how to win this conference every year. Stop losing those freakin' games (whether it's because you're playing down to your competition or because you're just awful to begin with).

Sorry, but baseball just doesn't work that way. The very best teams....#1 in the country can and do lose games against teams that are 200+ RPI on occasion. It happens about 1-2 out of 10 games. LSU was #1 for most of the season last year, and IIRC they lost not one, but TWO games against really bad competition. You can't be absolute in baseball no matter how bad you want to.

The best teams win 7 out of 10 games, not like football where the best teams go undefeated.

 

[coolonetoo]

Sorry, but baseball just doesn't work that way. The very best teams....#1 in the country can and do lose games against teams that are 200+ RPI on occasion. It happens about 1-2 out of 10 games. LSU was #1 for most of the season last year, and IIRC they lost not one, but TWO games against really bad competition. You can't be absolute in baseball no matter how bad you want to.

The best teams win 7 out of 10 games, not like football where the best teams go undefeated.

Agree but the point of taking care of business against bad teams is valid. Expecting to go 14-0 against 200+ RPI teams isn't realistic but there definitely have been seasons recently where good efforts against quality competition were offset by too many losses to lesser opponents. Remember the three home losses to Northwestern and Northern Colorado in 2014? That probably kept us from hosting a regional.

 

[sklarbodds]

Agree but the point of taking care of business against bad teams is valid. Expecting to go 14-0 against 200+ RPI teams isn't realistic but there definitely have been seasons recently where good efforts against quality competition were offset by too many losses to lesser opponents. Remember the three home losses to Northwestern and Northern Colorado in 2014? That probably kept us from hosting a regional.

Definitely agree. I just hate the "we should never lose to them, ever, that's unacceptable" line of thinking.

In a 14 game set against those types of teams, I would say a reasonable expectation is 12-2. 13-1 would be good and 14-0 would be spectacular vs any competition.

 

[k9_r]

Sorry, but baseball just doesn't work that way. The very best teams....#1 in the country can and do lose games against teams that are 200+ RPI on occasion. It happens about 1-2 out of 10 games. LSU was #1 for most of the season last year, and IIRC they lost not one, but TWO games against really bad competition. You can't be absolute in baseball no matter how bad you want to.

The best teams win 7 out of 10 games, not like football where the best teams go undefeated.

Yep. To paraphrase an old adage - You're going to win 15 games, you're going to lose 15 games, what matters is what you do in the other 25 games.

I've said we have no business losing a game to this year's WSU or Purdue and I believe that. But it sure doesn't mean that is what will happen. Fact is, we can go 4-4 in the next eight games and be just fine if we should tear through April and May with wins all around.

We're likely not going 4-4 and we're likely not going to tear up April and May but we are going to play out this schedule and likely win a lot of games.

6-2 would be a great record in this next stretch, 7-1 would make me smile for a week. GBR

 

[k9_r]

Point of fact, tho...

Only one of last year's top 10 RPIs lost a game to a 200+ RPI team (Missouri St). The group went 60-1 vs 200+ RPI.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

If we have 15 losses this year we are not going to make the ncaa tournament.

If you want an analogy, having a weak schedule in baseball is extremely like being on the bubble for the ncaa tournament in basketball EVERY game out there. win and you're in. don't and you're probably not.

either don't schedule games like that or win them. that's really the only options you have. Since we've already scheduled them there is only one other option.

You can be mad at my harsh tone all you want... if you don't want to be walking that line then stop scheduling nicholls state.

 

[k9_r]

If we have 15 losses this year we are not going to make the ncaa tournament.

If you want an analogy, having a weak schedule in baseball is extremely like being on the bubble for the ncaa tournament in basketball EVERY game out there. win and you're in. don't and you're probably not.

either don't schedule games like that or win them. that's really the only options you have. Since we've already scheduled them there is only one other option.

You can be mad at my harsh tone all you want... if you don't want to be walking that line then stop scheduling nicholls state.

Just to be clear, Nicholls St finished with RPI 84 last year. For the past three years they've averaged a finishing RPI 122 (84, 132, 150). Their RPI improved thru those three years. Scheduling an RPI like their's (esp. one that has trended as their's did) is perfectly legit.

Look, that 15 wins/15 losses thing is just an old saying but it's way more accurate than not. And if we finish with 15 losses this year we will have more than 40 wins and get a tourney invite. Book it.

 

[k9_r]

I will add, March RPIs are worthless. Ask me in May and I will have and opinion of our SOS. And one of Nicholls St's worthiness as an opponent.

 

[huskerbaseball13]

If we have 15 losses this year we are not going to make the ncaa tournament.

If you want an analogy, having a weak schedule in baseball is extremely like being on the bubble for the ncaa tournament in basketball EVERY game out there. win and you're in. don't and you're probably not.

either don't schedule games like that or win them. that's really the only options you have. Since we've already scheduled them there is only one other option.

You can be mad at my harsh tone all you want... if you don't want to be walking that line then stop scheduling nicholls state.

We have 40 regular season games remaining.....probably unlikely we are going 31-9 in that stretch. Although, I don't think 15 is the borderline number IMO.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

if we have 2 rainouts, and going 2-2 in the B1G tournament (average, just using it for reference purposes) that would put us at 42-15 with a schedule around 160th-170th. borderline at best. that's a recipe for around a 45 RPI (+ or - 7/8 spots). If that cuts the mustard it's barely at best. 48 didn't get us in last year and it won't this year either.

If we get a little lucky and it's better than 40th we would make it. It's safer and way, way, way more likely to say we won't.

the cutoff is probably 14 losses unless we can get to 43 wins in the tournament. obviously if we win the B1G tournament, everything i say is false regardless.

 

[huskerbaseball13]

if we have 2 rainouts, and going 2-2 in the B1G tournament (average, just using it for reference purposes) that would put us at 42-15 with a schedule around 160th-170th. borderline at best. that's a recipe for around a 45 RPI (+ or - 7/8 spots). If that cuts the mustard it's barely at best. 48 didn't get us in last year and it won't this year either.

If we get a little lucky and it's better than 40th we would make it. It's safer and way, way, way more likely to say we won't.

the cutoff is probably 14 losses unless we can get to 43 wins in the tournament. obviously if we win the B1G tournament, everything i say is false regardless.

I'm not sure where you're getting that scheduling ranking but I would be surprised if our SOS is that low.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

It is... That's what happens when you have 4 weekend series against 200+ RPI's and another against a 150+.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/schedule/Nebraska

Predictions : SoS 166

 

[huskerbaseball13]

It is... That's what happens when you have 4 weekend series against 200+ RPI's and another against a 150+.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/schedule/Nebraska

Predictions : SoS 166

I figured you were using Warren Nolan....but at this point those numbers are complete crap. At this point in the season the SOS prediction is essentially useless.

For instance...the Shockers are predicted to go 1-20 in the Mo Valley at this point according to Warren Nolan. Does anybody really believe that's going to happen?

 

[k9_r]

I'll admit this, If we finish with 40+ wins but an RPI 45+ I wouldn't much like our chances for an invite, so I'll give you that. But the Illinois plan worked out very well for them last year. We'll see how it works for us.

Maybe that RPI would work for us but it would certainly be bubble territory.

Good March talk, tho.

 

[k9_r]

I figured you were using Warren Nolan....but at this point those numbers are complete crap. At this point in the season the SOS prediction is essentially useless.

For instance...the Shockers are predicted to go 1-20 in the Mo Valley at this point according to Warren Nolan. Does anybody really believe that's going to happen?

Yep. March RPI/SOS = worthless. As are March predictions.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

You're right... it's actually more likely that SoS number goes lower than higher... unless you really think that Charleston ends up ranked 8th in the RPI, michigan state 6th, among others. Yeah some people will rise too but MSU, rutgers, and charleston are very likely going WAY down.

I agree, good march talk. I'm just a little more pessimistic than some here. I'd actually be VERY happy to be wrong here... also be very happy if someone else kicks my arguments in the teeth

 

[bigredrl]

We have no business losing a game to this year's WSU or Purdue. Indiana St is a legit opponent but I have no idea how good their midweek game is. Our midweek game is very good. 7-1

Wichita just lost their Friday night starter and just aren't good this year. Know a couple of kids on their team. Young and supposedly talented but it hasn't showed up yet. Natives are restless and Butlers seat is very warm considering he forced out a number of kids that started for Gene and then procedded to stink it up last year and off to a bad start this year.

 

[RobsterMobster]

Two years ago at this time we were predicted NOT to make the NCAA tourney and did. Last year at this time we were predicted TO make the NCAA tourney and didn't. Many things go into play and yes RPI is one of them along with SOS. Also how you finish in the conference which is what hurt us most last year, along with the end of the year slump.

Keep in mind the tourney gets an automatic bid and may be our best chance anyway when its all said and done.

 

[coolonetoo]

Keep in mind the tourney gets an automatic bid and may be our best chance anyway when its all said and done.

Where is that tourney being played this year?

 

[RobsterMobster]

Where is that tourney being played this year?

 

[coolonetoo]

I got my club level tickets the minute they went on sale. Hopefully MECA will be better prepared for Husker Nation this time!

 

[johnm17]

Where is that tourney being played this year?

Omaha