NCAA Tournament Projections - Final Projections

Alum-Ni

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The final projection from Baseball America


2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Final Projected Field of 64
by Teddy Cahill, Baseball America

In our final update, we now know the 16 host sites, as the NCAA announced them Sunday evening. However, if you've been following these projections all week, there were no surprises on the host sites.

The race for the final spots in the top eight is tight. Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Stanford and Texas Tech are all very close. Mississippi State and Notre Dame get the nod for the final two spots here -- Notre Dame for its ACC regular-season championship and 16 wins away from home, the most of any of the four teams, and Mississippi State for its third-place finish in the SEC.

This projection includes the unusual arrangement of South Carolina hosting a regional as a No. 2 seed, with Old Dominion as the No. 1 seed. ODU did not bid to host and therefore is not on the shortlist of the 20 teams that the selection committee can pick from to host regionals. But the Monarchs rank No. 13 in RPI (the best of any C-USA team), are 20-6 away from home, 14-6 against top-50 RPI teams and 21-11 against top-100 teams. Those metrics all stack up favorably when compared to any other potential No. 1 seed.

A traveling No. 1 seed would be unconventional in the modern version of the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee has not sent a top seed on the road since 2010 when Florida State was the No. 1 seed in the Norwich Regional, hosted by Connecticut. It previously was a more common part of the NCAA Tournament, but as more schools have invested more money in their facilities, more schools have met the hosting requirements.

The race for the final few at-large spots is also tight. There are more than half a dozen teams that have strong claims for the last three at-large bids. In the end, Alabama, Fairfield and LSU are given the nod here. Fairfield is an extreme outlier having only played a conference schedule (which it dominated) and it's anyone's guess how the committee will evaluate it, but with the No. 2 RPI, flawed as that metric may be, the guess here is the Stags are in. Alabama and LSU both rank in the top 35 of RPI and the top five in strength of schedule. Those two numbers may carry the day.

But Ball State, Georgia, Long Beach State, Louisville and Michigan, among others, all have strong cases and the selection committee will have its work cut out for it.

LAST FOUR IN
Alabama
LSU
Fairfield
Campbell

FIRST FOUR OUT
Georgia
Louisville
Ball State
Michigan

NEXT FOUR OUT

Long Beach State
San Diego
Florida Atlantic
Kansas State

---------------------------------------------

FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Arkansas (1)
#4 Jacksonville

#2 Maryland
#3 Northeastern

RUSTON REGIONAL
#1 Louisiana Tech (16)
#4 South Alabama

#2 Oklahoma State
#3 LSU

---------------------------------------------

NASHVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Vanderbilt (2)
#4 New Jersey Tech

#2 Virginia Commonwealth
#3 Wright State

EUGENE REGIONAL
#1 Oregon (15)
#4 Rider

#2 Gonzaga
#3 UC-Santa Barbara

---------------------------------------------

KNOXVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Tennessee (3)
#4 Southeast Missouri State

#2 Charlotte
#3 Campbell

GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Florida (14)
#4 South Florida

#2 Florida State
#3 Arizona State

---------------------------------------------

FORT WORTH REGIONAL
#1 TCU (4)
#4 Central Connecticut State

#2 Miami (FL)
#3 Dallas Baptist

GREENVILLE REGIONAL
#1 East Carolina (13)
#4 Norfolk State

#2 Duke
#3 Liberty

---------------------------------------------

AUSTIN REGIONAL
#1 Texas (5)
#4 McNeese State

#2 Nebraska
#3 Alabama


OXFORD REGIONAL
#1 Mississippi (12)
#4 Samford

#2 Southern Mississippi
#3 Virginia

---------------------------------------------

TUCSON REGIONAL
#1 Arizona (6)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 North Carolina State
#3 Fairfield

COLUMBIA REGIONAL
#1 Old Dominion (11)
#4 Presbyterian

#2 South Carolina
#3 North Carolina

---------------------------------------------

SOUTH BEND REGIONAL
#1 Notre Dame (7)
#4 Central Michigan

#2 Connecticut
#3 Indiana State

LUBBOCK REGIONAL
#1 Texas Tech (10)
#4 Army

#2 UCLA
#3 Pittsburgh

---------------------------------------------

STARKVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Mississippi State (8)
#4 Southern

#2 Georgia Tech
#3 Oregon State

STANFORD REGIONAL
#1 Stanford (9)
#4 North Dakota State

#2 UC-Irvine
#3 Nevada
 
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Alum-Ni

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The obscure site "College Sports Madness" has their final projection, with the Huskers as a #2 seed in the Fayetteville Regional, and the only Big Ten team in the field


FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Arkansas
#4 Southeast Missouri State

#2 Nebraska
#3 Indiana State
 

k9_r

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If we wind up with the #5 seed this would be a classic example of 'punishment'. Not punishment because we're Nebraska but because we're RPI 42. This would be a common landing spot for a 42-ish RPI. A two seed there would actually show us favor, not that a two seed is actually different than a three seed - it's not.


So, we've been told all season long that RPI is useless this year but I've been sceptical and even disbelieving of that. I know how the committee works and how baseball politics work. From the ACC on through to the PAC 12 there are influential baseball voices getting in the ears of committee members saying the Big Ten's problems are of their own making. Don't make them our problems.

Now, I'm not reporting that, I'm speculating that b/c things work that way.

Another thing, the committee released the host site info tonight, guess what? They pretty much went right down the ol' RPI ladder just like every other year. The softball committee marched in lock step with RPI.

Of course, we're not in the Austin regional yet but, yeah, just another little piece making me think RPI will not be abandoned at all. If so, Michigan (RPI 89) is toast and that is 100% the fault of the Big Ten. Michigan is a very good ball team but likely out.
 
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Alum-Ni

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D1Baseball's Final Projection


LAST FIVE IN
60. Fairfield
61. Pittsburgh
62. LSU
63. UC-Santa Barbara
64. North Carolina

FIRST FIVE OUT
65. Ball State
66. Georgia
67. Alabama
68. Kansas State
69. San Diego

===========================

FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Arkansas (1)
#4 Norfolk State

#2 Connecticut
#3 Arizona State

RUSTON REGIONAL
#1 Louisiana Tech (16)
#4 South Alabama

#2 Oklahoma State
#3 LSU

===========================

KNOXVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Tennessee (2)
#4 Rider

#2 Charlotte
#3 Virginia Commonwealth

GREENVILLE REGIONAL
#1 East Carolina (15)
#4 Samford

#2 North Carolina State
#3 Campbell

===========================

AUSTIN REGIONAL
#1 Texas (3)
#4 New Jersey Tech

#2 Duke
#3 Michigan

GAINESVILLE REGIONAL

#1 Florida (14)
#4 Jacksonville

#2 Miami (FL)
#3 Oregon State

===========================

NASHVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Vanderbilt (4)
#4 Southeast Missouri State

#2 Georgia Tech
#3 Liberty

LUBBOCK REGIONAL
#1 Texas Tech (13)
#4 Central Connecticut State

#2 UCLA
#3 Wright State

===========================

TUCSON REGIONAL
#1 Arizona (5)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 Maryland
#3 UC-Santa Barbara

EUGENE REGIONAL
#1 Oregon (12)
#4 North Dakota State

#2 Gonzaga
#3 Pittsburgh

===========================

FORT WORTH REGIONAL
#1 TCU (6)
#4 McNeese State

#2 Virginia
#3 Dallas Baptist

OXFORD REGIONAL
#1 Mississippi (11)
#4 Presbyterian

#2 Southern Mississippi
#3 Fairfield

===========================

SOUTH BEND REGIONAL
#1 Notre Dame (7)
#4 Central Michigan

#2 Nebraska
#3 Indiana State


COLUMBIA REGIONAL
#1 Old Dominion (10)
#4 South Florida

#2 South Carolina
#3 North Carolina

===========================

STARKVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Mississippi State (8)
#4 Southern

#2 Florida State
#3 Northeastern

STANFORD REGIONAL
#1 Stanford (9)
#4 Army

#2 UC-Irvine
#3 Nevada
 

sklarbodds

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Is it weird that I actually don't mind Austin? Part of me would love nothing more than ending their season on their field. Then I'd hope they send us there as hosts for a super haha!
 

scarletred

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Alabama doesn’t deserve a regional over Michigan for that matter neither does LSU both were 4 -5 games below .500 in confer play and I’m a Tiger fan..
 

scarletred

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Is it weird that I actually don't mind Austin? Part of me would love nothing more than ending their season on their field. Then I'd hope they send us there as hosts for a super haha!

Looking at the brackets I like that South Bend regional..